317 N Padgett · Morganfield, KY 42437

$25,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 541 Days on market

0.45 ac lot $20/sqft · 82% below area ↓ 38% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home in Morganfield, KY offers 1280 square feet of living space and is a great investment opportunity for anyone looking for a project. The home is in need of some repairs, but with the right repairs and updates, it has the potential to become a beautiful and modern property. This property could be transformed into a cozy and comfortable home. Don't miss out on this great investment opportunity!

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• Listed 541 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Rural view; Public water

Interior

• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Hardwood flooring; Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $671 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#336 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Union County (rural): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #134 of 165 in KY (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sturgis Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 676 statewide, top 42%, 369 students, 60% FRL); Union County High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 630 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $389 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Union County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 541 days — a 12% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $22,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 541 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 114.95%
• DSCR: 6.11
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,056
• List price: $25,000
• Delta: -81.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
714 E Lyon St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+2%)	1mo	$177,625	$137	87
718 E Lyon St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+2%)	1mo	$185,000	$142	86
215 N Mart St	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,416 (+11%)	11mo	$160,000	$113	63
43 Senate Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+6%)	5mo	$164,900	$122	58
309 E Manning St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-10%)	10mo	$118,500	$103	57
211 E Geiger St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,316 (+3%)	9mo	$200,000	$152	53
18 Senate Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,124 (-12%)	2mo	$125,000	$111	51
17 Congress Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-14%)	6mo	$121,000	$110	40
405 N Townsend St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,088 (-15%)	9mo	$183,000	$168	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.75×
• Total profit: $40,215
• Equity at exit: $5,373

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.07×
• Total profit: $91,475
• Equity at exit: $5,095

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42437

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,061 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $315/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $671

Break-even live

Break-even rent $212

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $685	-5% $678	+0% $671	+5% $663	+10% $656
Rent	-10% $587	-5% $629	+0% $671	+5% $712	+10% $754
Rate	-1.0pp $683	-0.5pp $677	base $671	+0.5pp $664	+1.0pp $657

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 541 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $25,000 Active 540 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $25,000 Active 537 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $25,000 Active 536 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $25,000 Active 535 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $25,000 Active 534 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $25,000 Active 531 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $25,000 Active 530 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $25,000 Active 529 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 528 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 527 DOM
12. 2026-01-13
    status Active
13. 2025-10-29
    status Pending
14. 2024-11-11
    status Active
15. 2024-04-29
    status Active
16. 2024-01-18
    status Active
17. 2023-03-06
    status Active
18. 2023-03-01
    status Pending
19. 2023-03-01
    historical
20. 2023-03-01
    historical
21. 2023-03-01
    historical
22. 2023-01-22
    listed $25,000 Active
23. 2005-02-01
    soldstatus $40,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $315 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $315 · $26/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$315
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,019
• − Management: −$1,019
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $8,129
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,951
• After-tax cash flow: $6,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union County
• NCES district ID: 2105640
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,776
• Composite: 22.27/100
• National rank: #8139
• State rank: #134 of 165 in KY

Livability — Morganfield

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #336
• US rank: #15964

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morganfield, KY
• Population (ZIP): 7,250

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,038 people
• By 2030: 14,681 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 13,607 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 12,406 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 9,720 · -35.4%
• By 2100: 7,841 · -47.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 10% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.3) · D 20.2% · R 78.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -53.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -58.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.3 2020: R+52.2 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+33.6 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.56%
• Current HPI: 222.4762
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-38.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-29 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2024-11-11 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2024-04-29 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2024-01-18 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2023-03-06 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2023-03-01 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2023-03-01 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2023-03-01 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2023-03-01 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2023-01-22 Listed $25,000 ImagineMLS
• 2005-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,600 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $315 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.