6492 W Whispering Windmill Ln · Marana, AZ 85658

$575,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,775 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 154 Days on market

Built 2015 8,886 sqft lot $207/sqft · 23% below area Est $743k · 23% under $124/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away in the gated community of Los Saguaros at Dove Mountain, This Energy Star Certified home offers desert living surrounded by nature and recreation. Completed in 2015 by Meritage Homes, this single-story residence features a 3-car garage w/ a 4ft extension, 2,775 sqft., 4 bedrooms + Office/Bonus room and 2.5 bathrooms, the home provides incredible flexibility to suit a wide variety of uses. Sitting on .20 acres, the property captures Tortolita Mountain views to the North with a fully fenced perimeter view-fence; allowing a seamless flow of natural landscape while maintaining privacy. Inside, you will find refreshed interior paint throughout and a flexible floor-plan with various zones for additional office space. The split floor plan ensures privacy for the primary suite which features dedicated backyard access, a custom-organized closet, and a versatile flex-space perfect for a reading nook. Built for efficiency and comfort, featuring industry-leading spray-foam insulation by Meritage Homes, a Kinetico water softener, and added exterior gutters. Outside, the you will notice low-maintenance desert landscaping, a custom entry gate, and a dedicated paver patio ready for a fire-pit. Dual side gates and direct garage access provide easy movement around the property; all set against the scenic backdrop of the Tortolita Mountains. This property offers residents a neighborhood setting close to incredible amenities. While the Wild Burro trailhead and Ritz-Carlton are within a short walk or bike. Beyond this, within Dove Mountain, residents may enjoy The Gallery Golf & Sports club, golf and dining at The Highlands, the Tortolita Preserve for trail running and mountain biking, generous cycling lanes on the road, an off-road walking path spanning the length of Dove Mountain Blvd, and 2 beautiful parks. The recently constructed Dove Mountain C-Stem K-8 school provides bus service, or an easy drop off for those commuting.

Key facts

• 8,886 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2015

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $575k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-690 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $453k (21.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $402k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $402k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.3% in Marana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#67 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 463 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($123k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($506k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $402,496 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.14%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $742,757
• List price: $575,000
• Delta: -22.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6541 W Winding Knoll Pl	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,856 (+3%)	2mo	$596,990	$209	75
6380 W Quiet Night Dr	0.22mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,893 (+4%)	3mo	$1,250,000	$432	71
13965 N Crooked Creek Dr	0.35mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,856 (+3%)	1mo	$619,740	$217	68
13990 N Crooked Creek Dr	0.35mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,856 (+3%)	4mo	$610,360	$214	67
6636 W Ironwood Pl	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,602 (-6%)	3mo	$780,000	$300	66
6615 W Red Hawk Pl	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,408 (-13%)	3mo	$865,000	$359	61
13975 N Crooked Creek Dr	0.34mi	4/3.5	3,173 (+14%)	2mo	$667,740	$210	56
13970 N Crooked Creek Dr	0.37mi	4/3.5	3,173 (+14%)	1mo	$660,940	$208	56
6567 W Whispering Windmill Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,391 (-14%)	2mo	$577,900	$242	55
6573 W Whispering Windmill Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,391 (-14%)	4mo	$610,000	$255	53
6852 W Patina Dr	0.64mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,081 (+11%)	3mo	$1,235,000	$401	42
7015 W Cliff Spring Trl	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,514 (-9%)	2mo	$710,000	$282	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-137,101
• Equity at exit: $85,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-175,957
• Equity at exit: $49,715

Cash invested: $161,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85658

• Home prices YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 463
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax from tax record: −$490 /mo · $5,885/yr
• Insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$124
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$845
• Net cashflow: $-690

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,898

Max offer price $453,174

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-364	-5% $-527	+0% $-690	+5% $-852	+10% $-1,015
Rent	-10% $-1,008	-5% $-849	+0% $-690	+5% $-531	+10% $-372
Rate	-1.0pp $-400	-0.5pp $-543	base $-690	+0.5pp $-839	+1.0pp $-990

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $143,750
• Closing costs: $17,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6503 W Whispering Windmill Ln Marana, AZ	4.0	2.5	3047	$4,750	$1.56	1d	1	0.05mi
6535 W Whispering Windmill Ln Marana, AZ	4.0	2.5	2775	$3,850	$1.39	16d	1	0.11mi
7062 W Patina Dr Marana, AZ	3.0	3.5	3081	$5,250	$1.70	21d	1	0.85mi
14653 N Saguaro Nest Trl Marana, AZ	3.0	2.0	2060	$2,795	$1.36	1d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $124 · $1,488/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingsecurity

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $575,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $575,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $575,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $575,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $575,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $575,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $575,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $575,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $575,000 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $575,000 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $575,000 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $575,000 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $575,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $575,000 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $575,000 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    price $575,000 1961-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1961 chars)

    Tucked away in the gated community of Los Saguaros at Dove Mountain, This Energy Star Certified home offers desert living surrounded by nature and recreation. Completed in 2015 by Meritage Homes, this single-story residence features a 3-car garage w/ a 4ft extension, 2,775 sqft., 4 bedrooms + Office/Bonus room and 2.5 bathrooms, the home provides incredible flexibility to suit a wide variety of uses. Sitting on .20 acres, the property captures Tortolita Mountain views to the North with a fully fenced perimeter view-fence; allowing a seamless flow of natural landscape while maintaining privacy. Inside, you will find refreshed interior paint throughout and a flexible floor-plan with various zones for additional office space. The split floor plan ensures privacy for the primary suite which features dedicated backyard access, a custom-organized closet, and a versatile flex-space perfect for a reading nook. Built for efficiency and comfort, featuring industry-leading spray-foam insulation by Meritage Homes, a Kinetico water softener, and added exterior gutters. Outside, the you will notice low-maintenance desert landscaping, a custom entry gate, and a dedicated paver patio ready for a fire-pit. Dual side gates and direct garage access provide easy movement around the property; all set against the scenic backdrop of the Tortolita Mountains. This property offers residents a neighborhood setting close to incredible amenities. While the Wild Burro trailhead and Ritz-Carlton are within a short walk or bike. Beyond this, within Dove Mountain, residents may enjoy The Gallery Golf & Sports club, golf and dining at The Highlands, the Tortolita Preserve for trail running and mountain biking, generous cycling lanes on the road, an off-road walking path spanning the length of Dove Mountain Blvd, and 2 beautiful parks. The recently constructed Dove Mountain C-Stem K-8 school provides bus service, or an easy drop off for those commuting.

17. 2026-04-23
    price $595,000 1961-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1961 chars)

    Tucked away in the gated community of Los Saguaros at Dove Mountain, This Energy Star Certified home offers desert living surrounded by nature and recreation. Completed in 2015 by Meritage Homes, this single-story residence features a 3-car garage w/ a 4ft extension, 2,775 sqft., 4 bedrooms + Office/Bonus room and 2.5 bathrooms, the home provides incredible flexibility to suit a wide variety of uses. Sitting on .20 acres, the property captures Tortolita Mountain views to the North with a fully fenced perimeter view-fence; allowing a seamless flow of natural landscape while maintaining privacy. Inside, you will find refreshed interior paint throughout and a flexible floor-plan with various zones for additional office space. The split floor plan ensures privacy for the primary suite which features dedicated backyard access, a custom-organized closet, and a versatile flex-space perfect for a reading nook. Built for efficiency and comfort, featuring industry-leading spray-foam insulation by Meritage Homes, a Kinetico water softener, and added exterior gutters. Outside, the you will notice low-maintenance desert landscaping, a custom entry gate, and a dedicated paver patio ready for a fire-pit. Dual side gates and direct garage access provide easy movement around the property; all set against the scenic backdrop of the Tortolita Mountains. This property offers residents a neighborhood setting close to incredible amenities. While the Wild Burro trailhead and Ritz-Carlton are within a short walk or bike. Beyond this, within Dove Mountain, residents may enjoy The Gallery Golf & Sports club, golf and dining at The Highlands, the Tortolita Preserve for trail running and mountain biking, generous cycling lanes on the road, an off-road walking path spanning the length of Dove Mountain Blvd, and 2 beautiful parks. The recently constructed Dove Mountain C-Stem K-8 school provides bus service, or an easy drop off for those commuting.

18. 2026-03-17
    price $620,000 1961-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1961 chars)

    Tucked away in the gated community of Los Saguaros at Dove Mountain, This Energy Star Certified home offers desert living surrounded by nature and recreation. Completed in 2015 by Meritage Homes, this single-story residence features a 3-car garage w/ a 4ft extension, 2,775 sqft., 4 bedrooms + Office/Bonus room and 2.5 bathrooms, the home provides incredible flexibility to suit a wide variety of uses. Sitting on .20 acres, the property captures Tortolita Mountain views to the North with a fully fenced perimeter view-fence; allowing a seamless flow of natural landscape while maintaining privacy. Inside, you will find refreshed interior paint throughout and a flexible floor-plan with various zones for additional office space. The split floor plan ensures privacy for the primary suite which features dedicated backyard access, a custom-organized closet, and a versatile flex-space perfect for a reading nook. Built for efficiency and comfort, featuring industry-leading spray-foam insulation by Meritage Homes, a Kinetico water softener, and added exterior gutters. Outside, the you will notice low-maintenance desert landscaping, a custom entry gate, and a dedicated paver patio ready for a fire-pit. Dual side gates and direct garage access provide easy movement around the property; all set against the scenic backdrop of the Tortolita Mountains. This property offers residents a neighborhood setting close to incredible amenities. While the Wild Burro trailhead and Ritz-Carlton are within a short walk or bike. Beyond this, within Dove Mountain, residents may enjoy The Gallery Golf & Sports club, golf and dining at The Highlands, the Tortolita Preserve for trail running and mountain biking, generous cycling lanes on the road, an off-road walking path spanning the length of Dove Mountain Blvd, and 2 beautiful parks. The recently constructed Dove Mountain C-Stem K-8 school provides bus service, or an easy drop off for those commuting.

19. 2026-01-15
    listed $635,000 Active 1961-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1961 chars)

    Tucked away in the gated community of Los Saguaros at Dove Mountain, This Energy Star Certified home offers desert living surrounded by nature and recreation. Completed in 2015 by Meritage Homes, this single-story residence features a 3-car garage w/ a 4ft extension, 2,775 sqft., 4 bedrooms + Office/Bonus room and 2.5 bathrooms, the home provides incredible flexibility to suit a wide variety of uses. Sitting on .20 acres, the property captures Tortolita Mountain views to the North with a fully fenced perimeter view-fence; allowing a seamless flow of natural landscape while maintaining privacy. Inside, you will find refreshed interior paint throughout and a flexible floor-plan with various zones for additional office space. The split floor plan ensures privacy for the primary suite which features dedicated backyard access, a custom-organized closet, and a versatile flex-space perfect for a reading nook. Built for efficiency and comfort, featuring industry-leading spray-foam insulation by Meritage Homes, a Kinetico water softener, and added exterior gutters. Outside, the you will notice low-maintenance desert landscaping, a custom entry gate, and a dedicated paver patio ready for a fire-pit. Dual side gates and direct garage access provide easy movement around the property; all set against the scenic backdrop of the Tortolita Mountains. This property offers residents a neighborhood setting close to incredible amenities. While the Wild Burro trailhead and Ritz-Carlton are within a short walk or bike. Beyond this, within Dove Mountain, residents may enjoy The Gallery Golf & Sports club, golf and dining at The Highlands, the Tortolita Preserve for trail running and mountain biking, generous cycling lanes on the road, an off-road walking path spanning the length of Dove Mountain Blvd, and 2 beautiful parks. The recently constructed Dove Mountain C-Stem K-8 school provides bus service, or an easy drop off for those commuting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,885 · $490/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,885 · $490/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,209
• − Property taxes: −$5,885
• − Insurance: −$2,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,864
• − Management: −$3,864
• − HOA: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$16,727
• Taxable loss: −$18,612
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,467
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Marana

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #11113

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marana, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 39,625
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 16,051
• Household income: $123,415
• Rent vs Own: 14.3% rent · 85.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 147.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 17% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.72%
• Current HPI: 272.3729
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $575,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $595,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $620,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-15 Listed $635,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+31.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,885 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.