627 N Hayden Bay Dr · Portland, OR 97217

$199,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Condo · 153 Days on market

Built 1972 Fair condition $178/sqft · 13% below area Est $231k · 13% under $508/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this remodeled 2 bedroom townhome style condo! Fresh paint throughout. Granite countertops with stainless steel appliances. Fridge and washer/dryer included. Brand new carpet on upper level! HOA amenities include sewer, water, trash, two gated pools, rec room with pool table, weight room, and tennis courts. Parking space #14 is very close to unit.Home energy score (HES: 2):https://us.greenbuildingregistry.com/green-homes/OR10161592

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Gated pools
• New carpet

Tags

• REMODELED
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW CARPET
• GATED POOLS
• REC ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $200k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($469/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.2% in Portland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#72 in OR, #3,256 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Portland SD 1J (urban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #23 of 183 in OR (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 298 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,041 units permitted in Multnomah County in 2024 (905 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Multnomah County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.84%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,632
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -13.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-34,629
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-45,495
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Portland: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+39

Mandatory relocation for no-cause evictions; rent increase notice 90 days.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97217

• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 298
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,441 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$508
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,392

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $108	+0% $39	+5% $-30	+10% $-99
Rent	-10% $-154	-5% $-57	+0% $39	+5% $136	+10% $232
Rate	-1.0pp $140	-0.5pp $90	base $39	+0.5pp $-13	+1.0pp $-65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
183 N Hayden Bay Dr Portland, OR	1.0	1.0	858	$1,800	$2.10	44d	1	0.24mi
123 N Hayden Bay Dr Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	889	$2,249	$2.53	44d	1	0.28mi
1055 N Anchor Way Portland, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1056	$3,150	$2.98	2d	34	0.40mi
1245 N Anchor Way Portland, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	856	$2,250	$2.63	2d	16	0.40mi
995 N Marine Dr Portland, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	924	$2,036	$2.20	3d	11	0.48mi
110 N Tomahawk Island Dr Portland, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$2,674	$2.69	2d	27	0.50mi
11505 NE Yacht Harbor Dr Portland, OR	2.0	2.0	2559	$4,356	$1.70	2d	5	0.76mi
440 W Columbia Way Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$4,400	$5.10	2d	150	0.93mi
500 W Columbia Way Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	849	$3,995	$4.71	2d	6	0.97mi
111 Parkway Pl Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	983	$4,995	$5.08	2d	3	0.98mi
411 Columbia St Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$3,377	$4.13	2d	14	0.99mi
520 SE Columbia River Dr Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0–2.5	1207	$2,395	$1.98	18d	2	1.06mi
520 SE Columbia River Dr #420 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.5	1350	$2,495	$1.85	22d	1	1.06mi
636 W 6th St Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	723	$2,349	$3.25	2d	8	1.11mi
608 Washington St Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	903	$3,236	$3.58	2d	11	1.11mi
1111 W Columbia Way Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0–2.5	857	$4,800	$5.60	2d	28	1.12mi
1000 W Columbia Way Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	767	$3,282	$4.28	2d	11	1.16mi
1110 W Columbia Way Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	783	$3,849	$4.91	2d	13	1.17mi
555 W 8th St Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	695	$1,630	$2.35	2d	11	1.17mi
701 Columbia St #107 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	871	$1,995	$2.29	24d	1	1.18mi
300 W 8th St Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$2,932	$3.20	2d	1	1.22mi
103 E Reserve St #103 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	987	$2,150	$2.18	5d	1	1.26mi
209 W Evergreen Blvd Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0	1048	$2,765	$2.64	5d	1	1.26mi
202 E Reserve St #202 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,995	$1.97	24d	1	1.29mi
204 E Reserve St #204 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	993	$2,250	$2.27	5d	1	1.29mi
608 R St Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.5	1024	$1,495	$1.46	8d	1	1.50mi
300 E 13th St Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	733	$2,100	$2.86	5d	7	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $508 · $6,096/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashpoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,900 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 136 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $199,900 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-05-01
    price $209,900 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Come see this remodeled 2 bedroom townhome style condo! Fresh paint throughout. Granite countertops with stainless steel appliances. Fridge and washer/dryer included. Brand new carpet on upper level! HOA amenities include sewer, water, trash, two gated pools, rec room with pool table, weight room, and tennis courts. Parking space #14 is very close to unit.Home energy score (HES: 2):https://us.greenbuildingregistry.com/green-homes/OR10161592

14. 2026-04-09
    price $224,900 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Come see this remodeled 2 bedroom townhome style condo! Fresh paint throughout. Granite countertops with stainless steel appliances. Fridge and washer/dryer included. Brand new carpet on upper level! HOA amenities include sewer, water, trash, two gated pools, rec room with pool table, weight room, and tennis courts. Parking space #14 is very close to unit.Home energy score (HES: 2):https://us.greenbuildingregistry.com/green-homes/OR10161592

15. 2026-03-24
    price $239,900 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Come see this remodeled 2 bedroom townhome style condo! Fresh paint throughout. Granite countertops with stainless steel appliances. Fridge and washer/dryer included. Brand new carpet on upper level! HOA amenities include sewer, water, trash, two gated pools, rec room with pool table, weight room, and tennis courts. Parking space #14 is very close to unit.Home energy score (HES: 2):https://us.greenbuildingregistry.com/green-homes/OR10161592

16. 2026-01-16
    listed $249,900 Active 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Come see this remodeled 2 bedroom townhome style condo! Fresh paint throughout. Granite countertops with stainless steel appliances. Fridge and washer/dryer included. Brand new carpet on upper level! HOA amenities include sewer, water, trash, two gated pools, rec room with pool table, weight room, and tennis courts. Parking space #14 is very close to unit.Home energy score (HES: 2):https://us.greenbuildingregistry.com/green-homes/OR10161592

17. 2019-06-20
    soldstatus $215,000 Sold 547-char remark

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    Completely remodeled in 2010 & immaculately cared for. Slab granite counter w/travertine floors & backsplash in kitchen & master bath. Oil-rubbed bronze fixtures/hardware. Cherry shaker cabinetry & Brazilian Cherry floor t/o main level. 2 deeded parking spaces. Private patio w/extra storage. A/C. Common amenities incl. 2 gated pools, rec room, tennis courts, rentable guest quarters, mature landscape and foliage. OPEN SUNDAY 1-3pm. [Home Energy Score = 2. HES Report at https://rpt.greenbuildingregistry.com/hes/OR10161592]

18. 2019-05-08
    status Pending 547-char remark

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    Completely remodeled in 2010 & immaculately cared for. Slab granite counter w/travertine floors & backsplash in kitchen & master bath. Oil-rubbed bronze fixtures/hardware. Cherry shaker cabinetry & Brazilian Cherry floor t/o main level. 2 deeded parking spaces. Private patio w/extra storage. A/C. Common amenities incl. 2 gated pools, rec room, tennis courts, rentable guest quarters, mature landscape and foliage. OPEN SUNDAY 1-3pm. [Home Energy Score = 2. HES Report at https://rpt.greenbuildingregistry.com/hes/OR10161592]

19. 2019-05-02
    listed $214,900 Active 547-char remark

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    Completely remodeled in 2010 & immaculately cared for. Slab granite counter w/travertine floors & backsplash in kitchen & master bath. Oil-rubbed bronze fixtures/hardware. Cherry shaker cabinetry & Brazilian Cherry floor t/o main level. 2 deeded parking spaces. Private patio w/extra storage. A/C. Common amenities incl. 2 gated pools, rec room, tennis courts, rentable guest quarters, mature landscape and foliage. OPEN SUNDAY 1-3pm. [Home Energy Score = 2. HES Report at https://rpt.greenbuildingregistry.com/hes/OR10161592]

20. 2011-02-02
    soldstatus $160,000 Sold
21. 2010-11-29
    listed $165,000
22. 2010-11-29
    historical
23. 2010-09-22
    soldstatus $86,625 Sold
24. 2010-09-15
    status Pending
25. 2010-09-03
    status Pending
26. 2010-07-31
    historical
27. 2010-07-08
    price $104,900
28. 2010-06-15
    price $109,500
29. 2010-05-07
    listed $116,000 Active
30. 2006-08-08
    soldstatus $175,250
31. 2006-07-21
    historical
32. 2006-06-26
    listed $168,950
33. 2004-12-22
    soldstatus $109,900
34. 2004-12-07
    historical
35. 2004-09-27
    listed $109,900
36. 2000-02-02
    soldstatus $96,282
37. 1999-05-11
    listed $97,900
38. 1998-01-21
    soldstatus $95,000
39. 1997-11-12
    listed $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 53% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,344
• − Management: −$2,344
• − HOA: −$6,096
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,499
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$600
• After-tax cash flow: $1,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 2-bedroom townhome condo requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including painting, landscaping, and exterior siding repair. Fresh paint and improved landscaping can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Weathered and in need of repainting
• Major Windows — No photos of windows, but appearance suggests they may need replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Exterior siding repair — Repairing weathered siding improves the home's appearance and value
• Both Window replacement — Replacing old windows can improve energy efficiency and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered and in need of repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · No photos of windows, but appearance suggests they may need replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Exterior siding repair — Repairing weathered siding improves the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both Window replacement — Replacing old windows can improve energy efficiency and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Portland SD 1J
• NCES district ID: 4110040
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $57,851
• Composite: 47.1/100
• National rank: #5112
• State rank: #23 of 183 in OR

Livability — Portland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #3256

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Portland, OR
• County: Multnomah County · 786,692 people
• City population: 774,334
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,169
• Household income: $100,361
• Rent vs Own: 43.5% rent · 56.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1532.0

Population outlook (Multnomah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 930,825 people
• By 2030: 996,904 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 1,121,379 · +20.5%
• By 2050: 1,242,124 · +33.4%
• By 2075: 1,464,431 · +57.3%
• By 2100: 1,576,181 · +69.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Multnomah

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+62.1) · D 79.3% · R 17.2% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.0pp toward D · 2008: 56.1pp · 2024: 62.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+62.1 2020: D+61.3 2016: D+58.3 2012: D+54.9 2008: D+56.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -747.13%
• Current HPI: 370.7526
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.89%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+120.9% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $209,900 RMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $224,900 RMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $239,900 RMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $249,900 RMLS
• 2019-06-20 Sold (MLS) $215,000 RMLS
• 2019-05-08 Pending — RMLS
• 2019-05-02 Listed $214,900 RMLS
• 2011-02-02 Sold (MLS) $160,000 RMLS
• 2010-11-29 Delisted — RMLS
• 2010-11-29 Listed $165,000 RMLS
• 2010-09-22 Sold (MLS) $86,625 RMLS
• 2010-09-15 Pending — RMLS
• 2010-09-03 Pending — RMLS
• 2010-07-31 Delisted — RMLS
• 2010-07-08 Price Changed $104,900 RMLS
• 2010-06-15 Price Changed $109,500 RMLS
• 2010-05-07 Listed $116,000 RMLS
• 2006-08-08 Sold (MLS) $175,250 RMLS
• 2006-07-21 Delisted — RMLS
• 2006-06-26 Listed $168,950 RMLS
• 2004-12-22 Sold (MLS) $109,900 RMLS
• 2004-12-07 Delisted — RMLS
• 2004-09-27 Listed $109,900 RMLS
• 2000-02-02 Sold (MLS) $96,282 RMLS
• 1999-05-11 Listed $97,900 RMLS
• 1998-01-21 Sold (MLS) $95,000 RMLS
• 1997-11-12 Listed $95,000 RMLS