24921 Muirlands Blvd #32 · Lake Forest, CA 92630

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 43 Days on market

Built 1974 $138/sqft · 12% below area Est $227k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tropical Dream On Golf Course 2 Bed 2 Bath Living And Family Room Tub And Shower In Master Big Open Kitchen With Breakfast Bar Gas Cooking Appliances Included-Disability Access:None (N)

Key facts

• Large spa
• Golf course view
• Exercise room

Tags

• GOLF COURSE VIEW
• HEATED SWIMMING POOL
• LARGE SPA
• EXERCISE ROOM
• LIBRARY
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area source: seller; Located south of El Toro; Latitude 33.620835, Longitude -117.693072
• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $1,709 (seller provided)
• HOA & community: Senior community; Land lease community (El Toro Mobile Estates)

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces; 3 carport spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (24' x 60'); Mobile home remains on site
• Construction: Double-wide mobile home; Total of 1 story
• Exterior features: Front yard; Street lighting and sidewalks (community)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has cooling (details: see remarks)
• Interior features: One-level home; Entry at main level; Community spa; Community pool
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 2.1% in Lake Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#387 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Saddleback Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #67 of 517 in CA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 205 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($126k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $199k implies a 333% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.21%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,598
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -12.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24921 Muirlands Blvd #209	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$152,500	$106	99
24921 Muirlands Blvd #265	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$185,000	$128	98
24921 Muirlands Blvd #28	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$170,000	$118	96
24921 Muirlands #13	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$175,000	$122	90
24921 Muirlands Blvd #303	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	12mo	$240,000	$167	90
24921 Muirlands Blvd Spc 114	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$207,000	$144	88
24921 Muirlands Blvd #23	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+3%)	2mo	$199,000	$134	86
24921 Muirlands Blvd #113	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	13mo	$205,000	$142	86
24921 Muirlands blvd #78	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,570 (+9%)	3mo	$224,000	$143	79
24701 Raymond Way #39	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	5mo	$202,500	$141	71
24921 Muirlands Blvd #188	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,600 (+11%)	13mo	$299,000	$187	64
24701 Raymond Ave #120	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,608 (+12%)	2mo	$375,000	$233	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $46,645
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $137,795
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92630

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,340 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$701
• Net cashflow: $1,264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23250 Orange Ave Lake Forest, CA	2.0	2.0	947	$2,995	$3.16	24d	1	0.16mi
25092 Farthing St Lake Forest, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	881	$3,303	$3.75	3d	5	0.47mi
6 Quinn Way Mission Viejo, CA	3.0	3.5	1716	$4,100	$2.39	20d	1	0.61mi
62 Aliso Ridge Loop Mission Viejo, CA	2.0	2.5	1560	$3,795	$2.43	24d	1	0.62mi
23151 Los Alisos Blvd Mission Viejo, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1091	$2,654	$2.43	2d	1	0.74mi
24621 Overlake Dr Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.0	1677	$4,350	$2.59	24d	1	0.84mi
22835 Islamare Ln Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.5	1860	$6,600	$3.55	12d	1	1.01mi
26075 Las Flores Unit b Mission Viejo, CA	2.0	1.5	989	$3,200	$3.24	15d	1	1.03mi
24241 Swiftriver Ct Lake Forest, CA	1.0	1.5	905	$2,850	$3.15	43d	1	1.05mi
24246 Swiftriver Ct Lake Forest, CA	1.0	1.5	905	$2,750	$3.04	24d	1	1.05mi
26037 Via Pera Unit K4 Mission Viejo, CA	2.0	1.0	932	$3,387	$3.63	43d	1	1.06mi
24391 Avenida de la Carlota Laguna Hills, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	957	$3,965	$4.14	1d	18	1.10mi
22602 Cottonwood Cir Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.0	1301	$4,250	$3.27	43d	1	1.10mi
22892 Plainview Cir Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.0	1836	$5,400	$2.94	43d	1	1.11mi
26191 Sanz Unit D Mission Viejo, CA	2.0	2.5	1000	$3,250	$3.25	20d	1	1.17mi
23333 Ridge Route Dr Lake Forest, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$3,100	$3.47	2d	9	1.23mi
24555 Los Alisos Blvd Laguna Hills, CA	2.0	2.0	1014	$3,250	$3.21	15d	1	1.26mi
24555 Los Alisos Blvd Laguna Hills, CA	2.0	2.0	1007	$3,356	$3.33	43d	1	1.26mi
22700 Lake Forest Dr Lake Forest, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$3,248	$3.22	4d	1	1.27mi
25885 Trabuco Rd #98 Lake Forest, CA	2.0	1.5	1190	$3,300	$2.77	11d	1	1.33mi
132 Avenida Majorca Unit B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	1.0	995	$2,400	$2.41	6d	1	1.34mi
24151 El Tiradore Cir Mission Viejo, CA	1.0	1.0	1050	$2,550	$2.43	4d	1	1.36mi
158 Avenida Majorca Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	1.0	1300	$3,200	$2.46	43d	1	1.37mi
25885 Trabuco Rd #235 Lake Forest, CA	2.0	1.5	1190	$2,980	$2.50	24d	1	1.41mi
169 Avenida Majorca Unit B Laguna Woods, CA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	43d	1	1.43mi
22159 Rimhurst Dr Lake Forest, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$2,880	$3.51	1d	2	1.43mi
170 Avenida Majorca Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,500	$2.50	24d	1	1.43mi
24299 Paseo De Valencia Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1347	$3,770	$2.80	22d	7	1.45mi
2022 Via Mariposa E Unit B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1325	$3,200	$2.42	18d	1	1.45mi
2369 Via Mariposa E Unit 3H Laguna Woods, CA	3.0	3.0	1663	$3,750	$2.25	43d	1	1.45mi
2369 Via Mariposa E Unit 1B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1340	$2,950	$2.20	43d	1	1.45mi
2269 Via Puerta Unit N Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1057	$2,700	$2.55	18d	1	1.46mi
254 Calle Aragon Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1009	$3,000	$2.97	17d	1	1.47mi
205 Avenida Majorca Unit A Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1278	$3,600	$2.82	43d	1	1.48mi
2293 Via Puerta Unit O Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1057	$3,100	$2.93	18d	1	1.49mi
74 Calle Aragon Unit A Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,700	$2.84	24d	1	1.49mi
969 Calle Aragon Unit 1B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1195	$2,900	$2.43	24d	1	1.50mi
2022 Via Mariposa E Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1305	$4,000	$3.07	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    status Active 782-char remark
16. 2026-05-10
    status Active Under Contract 782-char remark
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $199,000 Active 782-char remark
18. 2009-07-02
    soldstatus $46,000 Closed Sale 187-char remark

    Show marketing remark (187 chars)

    Tropical Dream On Golf Course 2 Bed 2 Bath Living And Family Room Tub And Shower In Master Big Open Kitchen With Breakfast Bar Gas Cooking Appliances Included-Disability Access:None (N)

19. 2009-06-09
    historical 187-char remark

    Show marketing remark (187 chars)

    Tropical Dream On Golf Course 2 Bed 2 Bath Living And Family Room Tub And Shower In Master Big Open Kitchen With Breakfast Bar Gas Cooking Appliances Included-Disability Access:None (N)

20. 2009-06-01
    price $49,000 187-char remark

    Show marketing remark (187 chars)

    Tropical Dream On Golf Course 2 Bed 2 Bath Living And Family Room Tub And Shower In Master Big Open Kitchen With Breakfast Bar Gas Cooking Appliances Included-Disability Access:None (N)

21. 2009-02-13
    listed $56,000 187-char remark

    Show marketing remark (187 chars)

    Tropical Dream On Golf Course 2 Bed 2 Bath Living And Family Room Tub And Shower In Master Big Open Kitchen With Breakfast Bar Gas Cooking Appliances Included-Disability Access:None (N)

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,207
• − Management: −$3,207
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $12,754
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,061
• After-tax cash flow: $12,102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saddleback Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633860
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $85,577
• Composite: 56.05/100
• National rank: #1185
• State rank: #67 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Forest

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #387
• US rank: #13130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Forest, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 80,019
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 67,152
• Household income: $125,853
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2412.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 27% Asian 19% Two or more races 16% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 18% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -866.99%
• Current HPI: 436.6189
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.51%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+255.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-05-10 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $199,000 CRMLS
• 2009-07-02 Sold (MLS) $46,000 CRMLS
• 2009-06-09 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-06-01 Price Changed $49,000 CRMLS
• 2009-02-13 Listed $56,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $17 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.