264 Burns Ave · Syracuse, NY 13206

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,066 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1956 5,227 sqft lot Est $203k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

EASTWOOD RANCH WITH THREE BEDROOMS, TWO BATHS EAT IN KITCHEN, DINING ROOM AND LIVING ROOM. FULL BASEMENT, FENCED IN YARD, WITH MANTIENCE FREE EXTERIOR. great STARTER HOME WITH LOW TAXES.

Key facts

• Vinyl windows
• Remodeled bathroom
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• VINYL SIDING
• VINYL WINDOWS
• FULLY FENCED REAR YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 42 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $200k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $181,451 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.07%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,540
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1939 Caleb Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+3%)	1mo	$249,000	$226	84
216 Burns Ave	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	993 (-7%)	3mo	$156,500	$158	77
141 Aberdeen	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,146 (+8%)	13mo	$227,500	$199	65
131 Winthrop Rd	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,191 (+12%)	1mo	$232,000	$195	62
301 Boston St	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+14%)	2mo	$250,000	$206	61
218 Arch St	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+1%)	8mo	$205,000	$190	59
263 Homecroft Rd	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+8%)	6mo	$200,000	$174	58
109 Cole Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,128 (+6%)	4mo	$256,000	$227	51
125 Avon Rd	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+13%)	5mo	$172,500	$144	50
7 Parkwood Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,188 (+11%)	4mo	$184,900	$156	47
133 Avon Rd	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,170 (+10%)	10mo	$168,000	$144	46
228 Nichols Ave	0.61mi	2/1.5 (-1)	946 (-11%)	10mo	$71,000	$75	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-12,052
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $31,850
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13206

• Home prices YoY: -7.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,815 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $782/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,515

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
99 Alpine Dr Unit 107-2 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	43d	1	1.04mi
297 Norwood Ave Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1188	$2,050	$1.73	21d	1	1.08mi
225 Marlborough Rd Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	13d	1	1.10mi
117 Edtim Rd Syracuse, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	545	$1,295	$2.37	13d	1	1.23mi
213 Beattie St Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	975	$1,370	$1.41	13d	1	1.27mi
121 Doll Pkwy Unit A Syracuse, NY	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,800	$2.00	13d	1	1.36mi
204 Mariposa St Unit pvt house Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1128	$2,137	$1.89	13d	1	1.39mi
118 Niven St Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,650	$1.43	21d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-22
   listed $199,900 Active
4. 2014-10-29
   historical 186-char remark

   Show marketing remark (186 chars)

   EASTWOOD RANCH WITH THREE BEDROOMS, TWO BATHS EAT IN KITCHEN, DINING ROOM AND LIVING ROOM. FULL BASEMENT, FENCED IN YARD, WITH MANTIENCE FREE EXTERIOR. great STARTER HOME WITH LOW TAXES.

5. 2014-10-24
   soldstatus $79,000 186-char remark

   Show marketing remark (186 chars)

   EASTWOOD RANCH WITH THREE BEDROOMS, TWO BATHS EAT IN KITCHEN, DINING ROOM AND LIVING ROOM. FULL BASEMENT, FENCED IN YARD, WITH MANTIENCE FREE EXTERIOR. great STARTER HOME WITH LOW TAXES.

6. 2014-10-20
   soldstatus $69,000
7. 2014-07-30
   listed $74,900 186-char remark

   Show marketing remark (186 chars)

   EASTWOOD RANCH WITH THREE BEDROOMS, TWO BATHS EAT IN KITCHEN, DINING ROOM AND LIVING ROOM. FULL BASEMENT, FENCED IN YARD, WITH MANTIENCE FREE EXTERIOR. great STARTER HOME WITH LOW TAXES.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $782 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,080 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,298/yr (+$108/mo · 166.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$782
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,742
• − Management: −$1,742
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$504
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$121
• After-tax cash flow: $2,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Syracuse City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628590
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $32,097
• Composite: 17.83/100
• National rank: #9007
• State rank: #590 of 590 in NY

Livability — Syracuse

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #2869

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Syracuse, NY
• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• City population: 152,627
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,245
• Household income: $63,136
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 725.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 13% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.60%
• Current HPI: 322.231
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.85%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+166.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $199,900 CNYIS
• 2014-10-29 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2014-10-24 Sold (MLS) $79,000 CNYIS
• 2014-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2014-07-30 Listed $74,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $782 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.