2351 Spring Dusk Ln · Spring, TX 77373

$157,750

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,228 sqft · Townhouse public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1983 6,599 sqft lot $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to Springridge! This quaint duplex half has fully upgraded electrical and plumbing! There is a covered carport and a large backyard. No carpet; all tile floors. Call today!

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Large backyard
• All tile floors

Tags

• FULLY UPGRADED ELECTRICAL
• FULLY UPGRADED PLUMBING
• COVERED CARPORT
• LARGE BACKYARD
• ALL TILE FLOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Springridge HOA with an annual fee of $180; Community pool

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first-floor living)
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1983; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 12x11; Bedroom (first floor) — 10x10; Bedroom (first floor) — 10x10
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Tub with shower; Combined living and dining area
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $485 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Twin Creeks Middle (math 23% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 973 students, 83% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,750

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.17%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-931
• Equity at exit: $23,521

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $14,858
• Equity at exit: $13,639

Cash invested: $44,170 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,168 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$827
• Tax from tax record: −$320 /mo · $3,842/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,555

Max offer price $157,750

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $574	-5% $529	+0% $485	+5% $440	+10% $395
Rent	-10% $313	-5% $399	+0% $485	+5% $570	+10% $656
Rate	-1.0pp $564	-0.5pp $525	base $485	+0.5pp $444	+1.0pp $402

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,438
• Closing costs: $4,732
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $157,750 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $157,750 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $157,750 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $157,750 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $157,750 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $157,750 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $157,750 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $157,750 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 185-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $157,750 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,842 · $320/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,842 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,836
• − Property taxes: −$3,842
• − Insurance: −$789
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,081
• − Management: −$2,081
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$4,589
• Taxable income: $3,618
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$868
• After-tax cash flow: $4,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11208.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $157,750 HARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Rental Removed $1,450 HARMLS
• 2025-02-19 Listed for Rent $1,450 HARMLS
• 2023-10-26 Rental Removed $1,395 HARMLS
• 2023-10-20 Listed for Rent $1,395 HARMLS
• 1988-02-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,842 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.