3243 Darby Rd · Rivanna, VA 22947

$1,075,000

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 5,302 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1997 0.51 ac lot $203/sqft · 23% below area Est $1392k · 23% under $140/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located on the 14th tee in Glenmore, this five bedroom, four and a half bath home is positioned to capture sunset views across the pond and green. A light-filled interior welcomes you with soaring ceilings in the family room, a separate dining room and a spacious kitchen with a sitting area, fireplace, and bright breakfast nook. The main level offers a primary suite and laundry for easy one level living, while the upper level includes four additional bedrooms, two full baths, and a bonus room. The finished basement features a family room, pub-style bar, full bath, and multiple flexible spaces. Purchaser qualifies for 25% off initiation to The Club at Glenmore.

Key facts

• Pub style bar
• Primary suite
• Soaring ceilings

Tags

• SUNSET VIEWS
• LIGHT FILLED INTERIOR
• SOARING CEILINGS
• PRIMARY SUITE
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• PUB STYLE BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee ($420); Association covers management, common area maintenance, insurance, playground, reserve fund, road maintenance, and snow removal; Community amenities include basketball court, picnic area, playground, sports fields, trails, and stables

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Asphalt driveway; Garage door opener; Garage faces side; Electrical service to garage
• Security: Gated community; 24-hour security and security guard
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane; Cable available; Fiber optic available; High-speed internet available; Satellite internet available
• Home design: Detached property; Two levels; Above-grade and finished below-grade living areas; Gated community with 24-hour security and security guard
• Construction: Stick-built construction with stucco and synthetic exterior; Poured foundation; Architectural roof; Built with finished basement (full, heated, interior entry, walk-out access)
• Exterior features: Propane tank (leased); Composite deck/patio; On golf course; Private road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Double oven; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen / breakfast area
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedroom on the second floor; Main-level bedroom (1)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Marble; Porcelain tile
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Two bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Heat pump
• Interior features: Primary bedroom located on the first floor; Breakfast bar and breakfast area; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen with kitchen island; Recessed lighting; Vaulted ceilings; Gas fireplace (one)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry room on the first floor; Sump pump in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $1.07M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $788k (26.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $680k (36.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $680k (36.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.4% in Rivanna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#343 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Stone Robinson Elementary (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A-, #273 of 1,108 statewide, top 27%, 473 students, 31% FRL); Jackson P. Burley Middle (math 59% / reading 71%, grade A-, #120 of 342 statewide, top 35%, 586 students, 45% FRL); Monticello High (math 49% / reading 81%, grade B, #210 of 319 statewide, top 66%, 1,229 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 23% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 139 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $32k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $680,000 (36.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.47%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,391,834
• List price: $1,075,000
• Delta: -22.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3243 Darby Rd	0.00mi	5/4.5	5,302 (0%)	1mo	$1,012,500	$191	99
1126 Cambridge Hill Ln	0.14mi	5/5.5	5,999 (+13%)	1mo	$1,550,000	$258	66
3170 Darby Rd	0.23mi	6/4.5 (+1)	5,304 (0%)	22mo	$1,800,000	$339	66
1387 Tattersall Ct	0.33mi	5/5.5	5,045 (-5%)	10mo	$1,550,000	$307	64
2420 Pendower Ln	0.63mi	5/5.0	5,141 (-3%)	0mo	$1,050,000	$204	63
1414 Darley Row	0.38mi	5/4.5	5,674 (+7%)	12mo	$1,250,000	$220	61
3410 Darby Rd	0.46mi	5/4.5	5,116 (-4%)	19mo	$1,399,000	$273	57
3518 Glasgow Ln	0.39mi	5/4.5	5,112 (-4%)	22mo	$1,365,000	$267	57
3067 Darby Rd	0.46mi	5/5.0	6,017 (+14%)	12mo	$1,800,000	$299	44
2402 Pendower Ln	0.58mi	5/5.5	4,732 (-11%)	11mo	$1,232,500	$260	42
2413 Pendower Ln	0.62mi	6/5.5 (+1)	5,510 (+4%)	19mo	$1,187,500	$216	40
1424 Sunderland Ln	0.41mi	4/4.0 (-1)	4,554 (-14%)	24mo	$930,000	$204	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-277,739
• Equity at exit: $160,286

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-375,633
• Equity at exit: $92,946

Cash invested: $301,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22947

• Home prices YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,637
• Tax from tax record: −$770 /mo · $9,238/yr
• Insurance: −$448
• HOA: −$140
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,428
• Net cashflow: $-1,623

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,855

Max offer price $788,265

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,015	-5% $-1,319	+0% $-1,623	+5% $-1,927	+10% $-2,232
Rent	-10% $-2,160	-5% $-1,892	+0% $-1,623	+5% $-1,355	+10% $-1,086
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,082	-0.5pp $-1,350	base $-1,623	+0.5pp $-1,902	+1.0pp $-2,185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $268,750
• Closing costs: $32,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1500 Piper Way Keswick, VA	5.0	3.5	4784	$6,800	$1.42	44d	1	0.61mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $140 · $1,680/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 668-char remark
2. 2026-05-04
   listed $1,075,000 Active 668-char remark
3. 2011-02-07
   soldstatus $607,500
4. 2005-06-14
   soldstatus $665,000
5. 2005-04-15
   historical
6. 2005-02-16
   listed $689,000
7. 2004-03-12
   listed $649,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,238 · $770/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,238 · $770/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $81,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$60,217
• − Property taxes: −$9,238
• − Insurance: −$5,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,528
• − Management: −$6,528
• − HOA: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$31,273
• Taxable loss: −$39,238
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,417
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,061/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albemarle County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100090
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,851
• Composite: 62.28/100
• National rank: #698
• State rank: #14 of 131 in VA

Livability — Rivanna

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #343
• US rank: #13658

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rivanna, VA
• Population (ZIP): 5,201

Population outlook (Albemarle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,403 people
• By 2030: 125,829 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 137,705 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 148,058 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 172,223 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 185,628 · +55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 13% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Albemarle

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.1) · D 66.3% · R 32.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.1pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 34.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.1 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -14.71%
• Current HPI: 240.3797
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+55.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $1,012,500 Public Records
• 2026-06-01 Sold (MLS) $1,012,500 CAAR
• 2026-05-13 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-05-04 Listed $1,075,000 CAAR
• 2011-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $607,500 Public Records
• 2005-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $665,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-15 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2005-02-16 Listed $689,000 CAAR
• 2004-03-12 Listed $649,900 CAAR

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $9,238 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.