22 Vista Gardens Trl #204 · Vero Beach South, FL 32962

$99,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 630 sqft · Townhouse public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1981 Est $85k · 17% over $465/mo HOA · 33% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ideal as a full time residence, seasonal retreat, or low maintenance investment. this second floor condo offers golf front living beautiful views along with the security of IMPACT GLASS. a perfectly positioned second floor condo with sweeping views of the golf course and surrounding landscape, all within a stones throw to the clubhouse and pool with all the activities vista gardens has to offer

Key facts

• Clubhouse and pool
• Sweeping views
• Impact glass

Tags

• IMPACT GLASS
• SWEEPING VIEWS
• CLUBHOUSE AND POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets not allowed
• HOA & community: Association: Keystone; Monthly association fee; Association fee covers common areas, cable TV, insurance, structure maintenance, recreation facilities, reserve fund, sewer, trash and water; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pickleball, on-site property manager, shuffleboard, storage facilities and pool; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned uncovered parking
• Utilities: Public water; County sewer
• Home design: 2-story building
• Construction: Brick, block and concrete construction
• Exterior features: Balcony; Community pool; Has view; Faces west; Property is attached

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom (14 x 13)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Window treatments; Furnishing negotiable
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-997/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $85k (14.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.3% in Vero Beach South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#163 in FL, #2,445 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Vero Beach Elementary School (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,596 of 2,144 statewide, top 75%, 599 students, 80% FRL); Oslo Middle School (math 39% / reading 45%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 864 students, 72% FRL); Vero Beach High School (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 2,847 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $100k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 33% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,220 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.71%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $85,050
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20 Vista Gardens Trl #204	0.05mi	1/1.0	630 (0%)	1mo	$79,000	$125	97
18 Vista Gardens Trl #104	0.08mi	1/1.0	630 (0%)	1mo	$70,000	$111	95
21 Vista Gardens Trl #104	0.05mi	1/1.0	630 (0%)	4mo	$95,000	$151	94
17 Vista Gardens Trl #204	0.11mi	1/1.0	630 (0%)	2mo	$85,000	$135	93
16 Vista Gardens Trl #204	0.16mi	1/1.0	631 (+0%)	3mo	$60,000	$95	90
44 Vista Gardens Trl #104	0.22mi	1/1.0	630 (0%)	5mo	$95,000	$151	86
27 Vista Gardens Trl #204	0.22mi	1/1.0	631 (+0%)	5mo	$75,000	$119	85
11 Vista Gardens Trl #104	0.26mi	1/1.0	630 (0%)	5mo	$95,500	$152	84
86 Crooked Tree Ln #204	0.60mi	1/1.0	630 (0%)	0mo	$73,500	$117	72
35 Vista Gardens Trl #204	0.20mi	1/1.0	700 (+11%)	0mo	$110,000	$157	72
91 Crooked Tree Ln #204	0.64mi	1/1.0	630 (0%)	9mo	$80,000	$127	63
503 7th Pl #503	0.42mi	1/1.0	550 (-13%)	7mo	$110,000	$200	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-19,433
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-15,180
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32962

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,422 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,317/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$465
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $-83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,527

Max offer price $85,220

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-27	-5% $-55	+0% $-83	+5% $-111	+10% $-140
Rent	-10% $-195	-5% $-139	+0% $-83	+5% $-27	+10% $29
Rate	-1.0pp $-33	-0.5pp $-58	base $-83	+0.5pp $-109	+1.0pp $-135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23 Vista Gardens Trl #203 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,500	$2.00	23d	1	0.10mi
15 Vista Gardens Trl #104 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$1,300	$2.06	15d	1	0.12mi
43 Vista Gardens Trl #205 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,450	$1.93	23d	1	0.16mi
33 Vista Gardens Trl #104 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$1,500	$2.38	15d	1	0.18mi
26 Vista Gardens Trl #203 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,350	$1.80	23d	1	0.22mi
102 Royal Oak Dr #105 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,550	$2.07	23d	1	0.37mi
441 7th Pl #441 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,250	$2.27	23d	1	0.40mi
101 Spring Lake Dr #204 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$1,275	$2.02	23d	1	0.41mi
462 7th Pl Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,400	$2.55	23d	1	0.42mi
95 Spring Lake Dr #103 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,600	$2.13	23d	1	0.46mi
522 7th Pl Unit 522 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,500	$2.73	23d	1	0.47mi
74 Royal Oak Ct #204 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$1,175	$1.87	23d	1	0.53mi
85 Crooked Tree Ln #203 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,450	$1.93	23d	1	0.55mi
60 Woodland Dr #204 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$1,250	$1.98	15d	1	0.67mi
60 Woodland Dr Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$1,125	$1.79	23d	1	0.67mi
52 Woodland Dr #204 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$1,300	$2.06	23d	1	0.72mi
50 Woodland Dr #203 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,350	$1.80	15d	1	0.73mi
5 Vista Palm Ln #203 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,500	$2.00	15d	1	1.00mi
28 Pine Arbor Ln #103 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,200	$1.60	23d	1	1.15mi
16 Vista Palm Ln Vero Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	23d	2	1.21mi
19 Pine Arbor Ln #105 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,800	$2.40	23d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $465 · $5,580/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $99,900 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $99,900 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-04-30
    listed $99,900 Active
19. 2017-04-18
    soldstatus $44,000
20. 2013-03-15
    listed $39,750
21. 1999-08-11
    soldstatus $29,800
22. 1981-07-01
    soldstatus $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,317 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,317 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,317
• − Insurance: −$1,297
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,365
• − Management: −$1,365
• − HOA: −$5,580
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$2,359
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$566
• After-tax cash flow: $-431/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River
• NCES district ID: 1200930
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,597
• Composite: 42.45/100
• National rank: #3218
• State rank: #35 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vero Beach South

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #163
• US rank: #2445

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vero Beach South, FL
• County: Indian River County · 143,738 people
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,522
• Household income: $66,664
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 425.0

Population outlook (Indian River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,104 people
• By 2030: 172,869 · +4.7%
• By 2040: 185,640 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 194,465 · +17.8%
• By 2075: 211,115 · +27.9%
• By 2100: 211,781 · +28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Indian River

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 36.0% · R 63.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+22.3 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.13%
• Current HPI: 333.3274
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.18%
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+150.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $99,900 RAIRCMLS
• 2017-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 2013-03-15 Listed $39,750 RAIRCMLS
• 1999-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $29,800 Public Records
• 1981-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,317 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.