5238 Pershing St · Houston, TX 77033

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,105 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 214 Days on market

Built 1950 6,211 sqft lot $90/sqft · 30% below area Est $142k · 30% under ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1-story 3bed 1bath fully fenced home in South Park ready for you. May be sold with others, Ask about other homes in The White Portfolio. with MLS# 49915652, 64295644, 79580837, 8944513, 67417929

Key facts

• 6,211 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $372 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,512/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1728% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.98%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,649
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -30.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5318 Longmeadow St	0.21mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,138 (+3%)	3mo	$125,000	$110	78
5306 Kenilwood Dr	0.30mi	2/1.0	1,038 (-6%)	5mo	$80,000	$77	72
7330 Hurtgen Forest Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,154 (+4%)	3mo	$154,900	$134	68
5007 Northridge Dr	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,069 (-3%)	2mo	$163,900	$153	66
7314 Forrestal St	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,020 (-8%)	0mo	$105,000	$103	64
7713 St Lo Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,151 (+4%)	4mo	$199,900	$174	64
5041 Southwind St	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,020 (-8%)	7mo	$195,000	$191	60
7338 Hurtgen Forest Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,230 (+11%)	2mo	$220,000	$179	58
5106 Malmedy Rd	0.51mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,071 (-3%)	9mo	$159,999	$149	56
5233 Dieppe St	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,237 (+12%)	3mo	$35,000	$28	56
5810 Southgood St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,223 (+11%)	4mo	$116,000	$95	51
5009 Bataan Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,228 (+11%)	2mo	$130,500	$106	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $11,568
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $57,481
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77033

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,512 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,346/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,041

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $428	-5% $400	+0% $372	+5% $344	+10% $316
Rent	-10% $252	-5% $312	+0% $372	+5% $432	+10% $491
Rate	-1.0pp $422	-0.5pp $397	base $372	+0.5pp $346	+1.0pp $320

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5314 Northridge Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,185	$1.36	44d	1	0.44mi
7918 Jutland Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	996	$1,295	$1.30	44d	1	0.52mi
5818 Glenhurst Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,750	$1.21	0d	1	0.61mi
5537 Bataan Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$1,300	$1.48	44d	1	0.74mi
5954 Doolittle Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,575	$1.15	44d	1	0.74mi
7818 Calhoun Rd Unit 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	44d	1	0.78mi
8107 Calhoun Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1304	$2,250	$1.73	25d	1	0.82mi
4615 Redbud St Unit b Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,149	$1.32	25d	1	0.88mi
4609 Bricker St Unit ABC Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1375	$3,500	$2.55	12d	1	0.91mi
4609 Bricker St Unit C Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,200	$2.91	13d	1	0.91mi
4609 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$3,500	$2.69	13d	1	0.91mi
4530 Mayflower St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,800	$1.38	44d	1	0.91mi
5835 Southmont St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	44d	1	0.96mi
6928 Paris St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,900	$1.49	0d	1	0.96mi
6926 Paris St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,900	$1.49	0d	1	0.97mi
6532 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	18d	1	1.08mi
6528 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	0d	1	1.09mi
6528 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	44d	1	1.09mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	13d	1	1.10mi
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	44d	1	1.15mi
4410 Bellfort Ave Unit 4404 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	812	$999	$1.23	8d	1	1.26mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	15d	1	1.27mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	6d	1	1.32mi
6030 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	740	$850	$1.15	44d	1	1.32mi
7032 Conley St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$2,850	$2.34	44d	1	1.34mi
4007 Corder St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	814	$885	$1.09	25d	1	1.37mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,190	$0.90	6d	1	1.38mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 1165 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$1,000	$1.00	0d	1	1.38mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 5565 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$935	$0.93	44d	1	1.38mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 5571 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,214	$0.92	11d	1	1.38mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 5535 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$1,004	$1.00	11d	1	1.38mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,220	$0.92	0d	1	1.38mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$965	$0.96	6d	1	1.38mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,190	$0.90	8d	1	1.38mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 324 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$965	$0.96	8d	1	1.38mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 5535 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$940	$0.94	14d	1	1.38mi
5514 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,210	$0.92	44d	1	1.40mi
5514 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$935	$0.93	14d	1	1.40mi
5918 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,000	$1.18	44d	1	1.45mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 1047 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$1,005	$1.00	11d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 214 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 213 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 212 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 211 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 209 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 205 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 204 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 203 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,000 Active 200 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 197 DOM
11. 2026-03-23
    price $99,000 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    1-story 3bed 1bath fully fenced home in South Park ready for you. May be sold with others, Ask about other homes in The White Portfolio. with MLS# 49915652, 64295644, 79580837, 8944513, 67417929

12. 2025-11-15
    listed $105,000 Active 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    1-story 3bed 1bath fully fenced home in South Park ready for you. May be sold with others, Ask about other homes in The White Portfolio. with MLS# 49915652, 64295644, 79580837, 8944513, 67417929

13. 2011-11-23
    soldstatus
14. 2009-08-03
    soldstatus
15. 1988-07-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,346 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,346 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,141
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$2,346
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,451
• − Management: −$1,451
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $3,174
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$762
• After-tax cash flow: $3,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,154
• Household income: $38,071
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1728.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 17% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.49%
• Current HPI: 212.6472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Listed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2011-11-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,346 · +16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.