2811 S Pines Dr #15 · Largo, FL 33771

$199,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,048 sqft · Condo public records · 421 Days on market

Built 1984

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICE IMPROVEMENT * NO HOA • NO Deed Restrictions • NO Short-Term Rental Restrictions! Welcome to your next home—or investment opportunity! This charming 2-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom townhome offers unbeatable flexibility and value with zero HOA fees and no limitations on leasing or short-term rentals like Airbnb. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, savvy investor, or looking to downsize, this is the kind of rare find that checks all the boxes. Step inside to discover a bright and open layout featuring a spacious living and dining area, a convenient half bath on the main floor, and a kitchen perfect for cooking and entertaining. Slide open the doors to your private fenced pat

Key facts

• Private fenced patio
• Peaceful garden
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• PRIVATE FENCED PATIO
• PEACEFUL GARDEN
• BRIGHT AND OPEN LAYOUT
• CONVENIENT HALF BATH
• AMPLE CLOSET SPACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community sidewalks; Association fee covers: none

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Cable available and connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Two stories; Faces south; Entry on second floor
• Construction: Stucco and frame construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of Tall Pines
• Exterior features: Lighting; Rain gutters; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Cooktop; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.2% in Largo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#82 in FL, #1,240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 220 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 421 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $199k implies a 343% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 421 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.71%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-26,995
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-31,455
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33771

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,959 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2871 S Pines Dr #24 Largo, FL	2.0	1.5	1048	$1,800	$1.72	24d	1	0.09mi
8775 Christie Dr Largo, FL	2.0	3.0	1300	$2,198	$1.69	18d	1	0.15mi
3030 Whispering Dr N Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1348	$3,600	$2.67	24d	1	0.22mi
3331 Whispering Dr N Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$2,190	$2.08	24d	1	0.39mi
1601 Palm Way Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,950	$1.80	24d	1	0.51mi
960 Starkey Rd #8402 Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1324	$2,200	$1.66	24d	1	0.53mi
960 Starkey Rd #5105 Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1324	$2,295	$1.73	24d	1	0.58mi
636 Lake Palms Dr Unit Stylish Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$2,200	$2.20	24d	1	0.61mi
636 Lake Palms Dr Unit Stylish Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	870	$2,000	$2.30	4d	1	0.61mi
960 Starkey Rd #10305 Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1324	$2,200	$1.66	15d	1	0.63mi
3736 141st Pl Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	805	$1,650	$2.05	24d	1	0.65mi
1200 Country Club Dr #1502 Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1320	$2,350	$1.78	4d	1	0.66mi
1200 Country Club Dr #3302 Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1320	$2,200	$1.67	4d	1	0.66mi
1200 Country Club Dr #4102 Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1324	$2,100	$1.59	4d	1	0.66mi
779 34th St SE Unit 1319966P Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	990	$2,941	$2.97	8d	1	0.68mi
3718 138th Ave N Unit 2 Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,500	$2.00	24d	1	0.69mi
3767 138th Ave N Unit B Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,495	$1.92	2d	1	0.71mi
3073 Pine Tree Ave Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,350	$1.64	24d	1	0.72mi
3135 Pine Tree Ave Unit A Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	923	$1,395	$1.51	22d	1	0.73mi
3135 Pine Tree Ave Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	923	$1,395	$1.51	11d	1	0.74mi
9122 Jakes Path Largo, FL	3.0	2.5	1461	$2,600	$1.78	24d	1	0.74mi
2505 E Bay Dr Lot 77 Largo, FL	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,395	$1.29	20d	1	0.84mi
600 Starkey Rd Largo, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	982	$1,774	$1.81	3d	21	0.85mi
44 Countryclub Dr #44 Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1278	$2,300	$1.80	24d	1	0.87mi
3022 Meadow Lake Ave Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	4d	1	0.88mi
3022 Meadow Lake Ave Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	11d	1	0.88mi
68 Country Club Dr Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1396	$2,100	$1.50	24d	1	0.96mi
69 Country Club Dr Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1278	$2,000	$1.56	24d	1	0.96mi
2045 E Bay Dr Largo, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1114	$1,830	$1.64	2d	15	0.97mi
2291 E Bay Dr Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	708	$1,600	$2.26	22d	1	0.98mi
2291 E Bay Dr Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	708	$1,600	$2.26	20d	1	0.98mi
225 Country Club Dr #1404 Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1440	$1,700	$1.18	4d	1	0.98mi
84 21st Ter SE Unit 1502691P Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1291	$5,914	$4.58	8d	1	1.02mi
14875 Cromwell Dr Clearwater, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,195	$1.48	17d	1	1.02mi
9925 Ulmerton Rd #74 Largo, FL	2.0	1.5	1140	$1,800	$1.58	18d	1	1.03mi
200 Country Club Dr #1505 Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,980	$1.58	15d	1	1.13mi
3377 Sherwood Dr Unit A Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	1064	$1,650	$1.55	8d	1	1.14mi
199 Fulton St NE Unit 4 Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	760	$1,600	$2.11	14d	1	1.16mi
7360 Ulmerton Rd Unit 3C Largo, FL	1.0	1.0	846	$1,599	$1.89	24d	1	1.27mi
7360 Ulmerton Rd Unit NA Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,050	$1.77	24d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 421 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 420 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 419 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 418 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 416 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 412 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 411 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 410 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,000 Active 407 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 406 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 404 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 403 DOM
13. 2026-05-07
    price $199,000
14. 2026-04-09
    price $225,000
15. 2025-04-23
    listed $235,000 Active
16. 1997-08-29
    soldstatus $44,900
17. 1997-08-29
    soldstatus $44,900
18. 1990-06-20
    soldstatus $30,000
19. 1984-12-01
    soldstatus $46,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,880
• − Management: −$1,880
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$1,173
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$281
• After-tax cash flow: $2,347/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Largo

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #1240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Largo, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 106,311
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,596
• Household income: $59,993
• Rent vs Own: 35.5% rent · 64.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1243.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.36%
• Current HPI: 313.5044
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.06%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+327.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-23 Listed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $44,900 Public Records
• 1997-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $44,900 Public Records
• 1990-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1984-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $46,600 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $250 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.