26 Orchid Rd · East Patchogue, NY 11772

$519,999

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1975 0.35 ac lot $602/sqft · 24% above area Est $632k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home!!!! This beautifully maintained Cape-style home offers 4 spacious bedrooms, 1 full bathroom as well as a one car garage. This turnkey residence is in pristine condition, showcasing the true pride of home ownership throughout! The interior is exceptionally clean and well cared for, featuring a functional layout with comfortable living spaces and abundant natural light. The home sits on a lovely property with a well-manicured backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located in a neighborhood with one entry and exit, it offers a sense of privacy and minimal through traffic. Move-in ready and impeccably kept, this home is a must-see! Don't miss this opportunity to own this

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1975

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Single family residence

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 4 total parking spaces; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service by PSEG; Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Phone available; Public trash collection; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area measured by CubiCasa
• Construction: Frame and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen; Open kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Oil heating; No central air
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining; Open kitchen; Patio; Porch; No basement; Attic: see remarks; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in hall

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $520k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-855 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $369k (29.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $372k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $369k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.1% in East Patchogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#769 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #73 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Medford Elementary School (math 75% / reading 75%, grade A, #289 of 2,108 statewide, top 15%, 451 students, 42% FRL); South Ocean Middle School (math 75%, 599 students, 57% FRL); Patchogue-Medford High School (math 89% / reading 67%, grade A-, #577 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 2,443 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 35% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $520k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $369,029 (29.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.04%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $632,175
• List price: $519,999
• Delta: -17.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 Hospital Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0	848 (-2%)	4mo	$575,000	$678	71
34 Strongs Ln	0.46mi	3/1.0 (-1)	830 (-4%)	10mo	$530,000	$639	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-130,599
• Equity at exit: $77,534

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-149,199
• Equity at exit: $44,960

Cash invested: $145,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11772

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,723 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,727
• Tax from tax record: −$852 /mo · $10,225/yr
• Insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$782
• Net cashflow: $-855

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,805

Max offer price $369,029

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-560	-5% $-707	+0% $-855	+5% $-1,002	+10% $-1,149
Rent	-10% $-1,149	-5% $-1,002	+0% $-855	+5% $-708	+10% $-561
Rate	-1.0pp $-593	-0.5pp $-722	base $-855	+0.5pp $-989	+1.0pp $-1,126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $130,000
• Closing costs: $15,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
718 Provost Ave Bellport, NY	4.0	1.0	1100	$4,000	$3.64	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $519,999 Active 734-char remark
2. 2026-05-04
   historical $519,999 734-char remark
3. 2002-03-06
   soldstatus $200,000
4. 1994-09-12
   soldstatus $89,500
5. 1994-01-27
   soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,225 · $852/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,225 · $852/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,128
• − Property taxes: −$10,225
• − Insurance: −$2,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,574
• − Management: −$3,574
• − Depreciation: −$15,127
• Taxable loss: −$19,554
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,693
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,562/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3622470
• Math proficiency: 83% ▲ 27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $75,120
• Composite: 66.81/100
• National rank: #405
• State rank: #73 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Patchogue

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #769
• US rank: #14732

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Patchogue, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 45,006
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 45,023
• Household income: $105,245
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1595.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -578.02%
• Current HPI: 375.1174
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+5100.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $519,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Coming Soon $519,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 1994-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $89,500 Public Records
• 1994-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,225 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.