819 Lancaster Ave · Syracuse, NY 13210

$299,900

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,045 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1940 5,280 sqft lot Est $286k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is an established 4/5 bedroom student rental at Syracuse University with a history of steady cash-flow.

Key facts

• Turn key ready
• Updates such as roof
• 5,280 sq ft lot

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• TURN KEY READY
• UPDATES SUCH AS ROOF
• UPDATES SUCH AS WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $623 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.2%/yr); 58 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,251/mo this rent would consume 93% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 2307% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $245k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $299,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.91%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Avondale Pl	0.25mi	5/2.5	2,000 (-2%)	2mo	$291,000	$146	79
109 Avondale Pl	0.27mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,154 (+5%)	4mo	$282,500	$131	70
826 Lancaster Ave	0.03mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,863 (-9%)	9mo	$260,000	$140	69
538 Cumberland Ave	0.50mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,079 (+2%)	1mo	$195,000	$94	66
522 Allen St	0.55mi	5/2.5	2,070 (+1%)	5mo	$230,000	$111	64
124 Cumberland Ave	0.73mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,041 (-0%)	5mo	$158,000	$77	56
1022 Westcott St	0.29mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,739 (-15%)	1mo	$287,000	$165	56
603 Allen St	0.49mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,184 (+7%)	4mo	$345,000	$158	53
248 Scottholm Ter	0.63mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,172 (+6%)	5mo	$323,000	$149	49
303 Crawford Ave	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,110 (+3%)	8mo	$216,300	$103	45
244 Scottholm Ter	0.63mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,150 (+5%)	10mo	$276,000	$128	43
206 Haffenden Rd	0.61mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,745 (-15%)	8mo	$275,000	$158	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $8,247
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $136,366
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13210

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Rents YoY: 11.2%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,251 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,967/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$683
• Net cashflow: $623

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,462

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $793	-5% $708	+0% $623	+5% $538	+10% $453
Rent	-10% $366	-5% $495	+0% $623	+5% $752	+10% $880
Rate	-1.0pp $774	-0.5pp $699	base $623	+0.5pp $546	+1.0pp $466

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
750 Euclid Ave Syracuse, NY	5.0	2.0	2736	$4,100	$1.50	44d	1	0.10mi
922 Westcott St Syracuse, NY	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	21d	1	0.22mi
1205 Madison St Fl -1 Syracuse, NY	4.0	3.0	2988	$2,640	$0.88	44d	1	0.72mi
215 Locksley Rd Syracuse, NY	4.0	3.5	2352	$4,300	$1.83	14d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-05
   listed $299,900 Active
3. 2022-03-23
   soldstatus $245,000
4. 2022-02-28
   soldstatus $245,000 Closed Sale or Rented 108-char remark

   Show marketing remark (108 chars)

   This is an established 4/5 bedroom student rental at Syracuse University with a history of steady cash-flow.

5. 2021-11-02
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 108-char remark

   Show marketing remark (108 chars)

   This is an established 4/5 bedroom student rental at Syracuse University with a history of steady cash-flow.

6. 2021-09-28
   listed $249,900 Active 108-char remark

   Show marketing remark (108 chars)

   This is an established 4/5 bedroom student rental at Syracuse University with a history of steady cash-flow.

7. 2017-08-17
   soldstatus $240,000
8. 2017-08-10
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show
9. 2017-08-10
   listed $240,000 Active
10. 2017-08-10
    soldstatus $240,000 Closed Sale or Rented
11. 2009-08-18
    soldstatus $216,000
12. 2007-06-28
    soldstatus $146,000
13. 2005-07-06
    soldstatus $123,000
14. 2005-03-15
    soldstatus $82,500
15. 2001-09-27
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,967 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,018 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,051/yr (+$88/mo · 35.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$2,967
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,121
• − Management: −$3,121
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable income: $2,778
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$667
• After-tax cash flow: $6,812/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Syracuse City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628590
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $32,097
• Composite: 17.83/100
• National rank: #9007
• State rank: #590 of 590 in NY

Livability — Syracuse

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #2869

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Syracuse, NY
• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• City population: 152,627
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 19,803
• Household income: $41,738
• Rent vs Own: 70.6% rent · 29.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2307.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 18% Asian 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Chinese 5% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.59%
• Current HPI: 378.0277
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.18%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+399.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-05 Listed $299,900 CNYIS
• 2022-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-28 Sold (MLS) $245,000 CNYIS
• 2021-11-02 Pending — CNYIS
• 2021-09-28 Listed $249,900 CNYIS
• 2017-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-10 Pending — CNYIS
• 2017-08-10 Listed $240,000 CNYIS
• 2017-08-10 Sold (MLS) $240,000 CNYIS
• 2009-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $216,000 Public Records
• 2007-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $146,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $123,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records
• 2001-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,967 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.