21313 NW 56th Pl · Newberry, FL 32669

$259,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2009 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come experience the peace of country living without the inconvenience. This home on 5 acres features a 5 stall barn w/ tack room, fenced and cross fenced pastures ready for your animals, additional storage buildings ready for power. Just minutes to downtown Newberry or go east a short drive to the bustling area of Jonesville. A great starter home with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with a covered back porch. Come grab your friends and family and come see your next home.

Key facts

• Remodeled
• New hot water heater
• 2020 hvac system

Tags

• REMODELED
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• 2020 HVAC SYSTEM
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Property subtype: Manufactured Home; Total acreage: approximately 5 acres
• HOA & community: Located in Evergreen Estates

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential manufactured home (single wide); One story; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured single wide home
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen open to family room
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-900/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in Newberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#524 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 418 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,623 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.24%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-45,551
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-40,255
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32669

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 418
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,226 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$362 /mo · $4,350/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,321

Max offer price $246,651

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $259,900 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $259,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $259,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $259,900 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-05-22
   listed $259,900 Active
6. 2022-05-10
   soldstatus $185,000 Closed 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   Come experience the peace of country living without the inconvenience. This home on 5 acres features a 5 stall barn w/ tack room, fenced and cross fenced pastures ready for your animals, additional storage buildings ready for power. Just minutes to downtown Newberry or go east a short drive to the bustling area of Jonesville. A great starter home with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with a covered back porch. Come grab your friends and family and come see your next home.

7. 2021-11-15
   soldstatus $185,000
8. 2021-09-08
   status Pending 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   Come experience the peace of country living without the inconvenience. This home on 5 acres features a 5 stall barn w/ tack room, fenced and cross fenced pastures ready for your animals, additional storage buildings ready for power. Just minutes to downtown Newberry or go east a short drive to the bustling area of Jonesville. A great starter home with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with a covered back porch. Come grab your friends and family and come see your next home.

9. 2021-06-24
   listed $185,500 Active 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   Come experience the peace of country living without the inconvenience. This home on 5 acres features a 5 stall barn w/ tack room, fenced and cross fenced pastures ready for your animals, additional storage buildings ready for power. Just minutes to downtown Newberry or go east a short drive to the bustling area of Jonesville. A great starter home with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with a covered back porch. Come grab your friends and family and come see your next home.

10. 2014-03-31
    historical
11. 2014-01-04
    listed $97,000
12. 2013-04-03
    soldstatus $84,500
13. 2013-03-27
    soldstatus $84,500
14. 2011-07-15
    listed $90,000
15. 2011-07-01
    historical
16. 2010-11-25
    listed $139,900
17. 2010-10-26
    historical
18. 2010-04-28
    listed $139,000
19. 2005-06-08
    soldstatus $74,000
20. 2005-06-03
    soldstatus $74,000
21. 2005-02-05
    listed $79,500
22. 2004-04-01
    soldstatus $29,000
23. 2003-12-11
    listed $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,350 · $362/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,350 · $362/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,715
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$4,350
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,137
• − Management: −$2,137
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$5,328
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,279
• After-tax cash flow: $379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Newberry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #9753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 17,704
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,704
• Household income: $99,548
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 161.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 14% Black 13% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.83%
• Current HPI: 263.4335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.57%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+642.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $259,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-10 Sold (MLS) $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-24 Listed $185,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-04 Listed $97,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $84,500 Public Records
• 2013-03-27 Sold (MLS) $84,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-15 Listed $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-11-25 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-28 Listed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-03 Sold (MLS) $74,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-05 Listed $79,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-01 Sold (MLS) $29,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-12-11 Listed $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,350 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.