403 Lake St · Alexandria, MN 56308

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 929 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1902 9,888 sqft lot $215/sqft · at area comps Est $343k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-Maintained 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, located in the City of Alexandria. Large corner lot, very nice front porch and back porch, many updates in home.

Key facts

• 9,888 sq ft lot
• Built 1902
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 1,556 sq. ft. above grade with 435 sq. ft. below grade (total building area 1,991); Lot about 0.227 acres (approx. dimensions 65 x 150 x 65 x 150)

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas; Circuit breaker electrical service; Serviced by Alexandria Light & Power
• Home design: Residential property; One and one-half stories
• Construction: Block foundation; Roof replaced within the last 8 years
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Front porch; Rear porch; Storage shed on the property; City street frontage (publicly maintained road)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Microwave; Kitchen with window
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms — two on the upper level and one on the main level
• Bathrooms: Main-level full bathroom; Upper-level 3/4 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Kitchen window; Porches (front and rear); Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (31.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.5% in Alexandria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#105 in MN, #2,409 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Alexandria Public School District (town): math 55% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #64 of 301 in MN (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 402 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 285 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (88 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $136,032 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.35%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $342,658
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -41.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-45,350
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-56,296
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56308

• Active inventory: 402
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,360 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,750/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $-203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,617

Max offer price $164,080

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1605 6th Ave E Unit 214 Alexandria, MN	2.0	1.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	43d	1	0.75mi
1607 6th Ave E Unit 202 Alexandria, MN	2.0	1.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	43d	1	0.76mi
505 McKay Ave S Alexandria, MN	2.0	1.0	850	$1,075	$1.26	43d	2	1.04mi
1964 10th Ave E Alexandria, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,650	$2.13	43d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 369-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $199,900 Active 369-char remark
3. 2026-05-04
   historical $199,900 369-char remark
4. 2015-10-28
   soldstatus $125,000 147-char remark

   Show marketing remark (147 chars)

   Well-Maintained 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, located in the City of Alexandria. Large corner lot, very nice front porch and back porch, many updates in home.

5. 2015-10-28
   soldstatus $125,100

   Show marketing remark (147 chars)

   Well-Maintained 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, located in the City of Alexandria. Large corner lot, very nice front porch and back porch, many updates in home.

6. 2015-08-05
   listed $124,900 147-char remark

   Show marketing remark (147 chars)

   Well-Maintained 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, located in the City of Alexandria. Large corner lot, very nice front porch and back porch, many updates in home.

7. 2012-01-05
   historical
8. 2011-11-02
   soldstatus $124,000
9. 2011-05-11
   listed $124,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,750 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,994 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$244/yr (+$20/mo · 14.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,750
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,306
• − Management: −$1,306
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$6,050
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,452
• After-tax cash flow: $-981/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alexandria Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2703060
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $52,476
• Composite: 48.0/100
• National rank: #2197
• State rank: #64 of 301 in MN

Livability — Alexandria

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #2409

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alexandria, MN
• County: Douglas County · 27,008 people
• City population: 27,008
• Metro: Alexandria, MN
• Population (ZIP): 27,008
• Household income: $78,177
• Rent vs Own: 27.4% rent · 72.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 550.0

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,913 people
• By 2030: 39,636 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 40,564 · +4.2%
• By 2050: 40,819 · +4.9%
• By 2075: 40,824 · +4.9%
• By 2100: 38,379 · -1.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 22% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.1) · D 31.7% · R 66.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.5pp · 2024: -35.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.1 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+35.8 2012: R+15.5 2008: R+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.15%
• Current HPI: 189.1595
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Alexandria, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+72.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Sold (MLS) $216,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Coming Soon $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $125,100 Public Records
• 2015-10-28 Sold (MLS) $125,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-05 Listed $124,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-05 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records
• 2011-05-11 Listed $124,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,750 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.