4880 Old Lucerne Park Rd · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$129,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · Manufactured public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1967 0.66 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful, water front property is just over a half acre and located on Lake Lucerne in Winter Haven. Enjoy the Florida summer and lakefront sunsets from your screened-in back porch. This property is grandfathered in to allow for you to replace the existing mobile home or you can build your own new home on this sliver of paradise. This property priced for land value. The property has a private well and septic. Located just 35 minutes from Walt Disney World and 25 minutes from Legoland.

Key facts

• Lakefront living
• Water views
• Private lake lucerne

Tags

• LAKEFRONT LIVING
• PRIVATE LAKE LUCERNE
• WATER VIEWS
• FISHING OPPORTUNITIES
• BOATING OPPORTUNITIES
• KAYAKING OPPORTUNITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R-2
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (open); 1-car carport
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; Electricity available and connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; Home faces north
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Completed condition
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Screened porch; Porch; Sidewalk; Outdoor storage shed; Chain link and wood fencing; Fruit trees and mature landscaping; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Living room and dining room combo; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: No laundry room (none listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 491 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $130k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,090 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.46%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-9,800
• Equity at exit: $19,382

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,629
• Equity at exit: $11,239

Cash invested: $36,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,377 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,870/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,129

Max offer price $129,990

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $270	-5% $233	+0% $196	+5% $159	+10% $122
Rent	-10% $87	-5% $142	+0% $196	+5% $250	+10% $305
Rate	-1.0pp $261	-0.5pp $229	base $196	+0.5pp $162	+1.0pp $128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,498
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,990 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,990 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,990 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,990 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,990 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,990 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,990 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,990 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,990 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,990 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,990 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,990 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,990 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,990 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $129,990 Active
16. 2021-03-17
    soldstatus $85,000
17. 2021-03-13
    soldstatus $85,000 Sold 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    This beautiful, water front property is just over a half acre and located on Lake Lucerne in Winter Haven. Enjoy the Florida summer and lakefront sunsets from your screened-in back porch. This property is grandfathered in to allow for you to replace the existing mobile home or you can build your own new home on this sliver of paradise. This property priced for land value. The property has a private well and septic. Located just 35 minutes from Walt Disney World and 25 minutes from Legoland.

18. 2021-02-12
    status Pending 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    This beautiful, water front property is just over a half acre and located on Lake Lucerne in Winter Haven. Enjoy the Florida summer and lakefront sunsets from your screened-in back porch. This property is grandfathered in to allow for you to replace the existing mobile home or you can build your own new home on this sliver of paradise. This property priced for land value. The property has a private well and septic. Located just 35 minutes from Walt Disney World and 25 minutes from Legoland.

19. 2021-01-08
    listed $100,000 Active 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    This beautiful, water front property is just over a half acre and located on Lake Lucerne in Winter Haven. Enjoy the Florida summer and lakefront sunsets from your screened-in back porch. This property is grandfathered in to allow for you to replace the existing mobile home or you can build your own new home on this sliver of paradise. This property priced for land value. The property has a private well and septic. Located just 35 minutes from Walt Disney World and 25 minutes from Legoland.

20. 1992-04-01
    soldstatus $26,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,870 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,870 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,522
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,281
• − Property taxes: −$1,870
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,322
• − Management: −$1,322
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $295
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$71
• After-tax cash flow: $2,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+390.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $129,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-13 Sold (MLS) $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-08 Listed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $26,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,870 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.