Henderson Plan · Montgomery, TX 77356

$444,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,751 sqft · SingleFamily · 54 Days on market

Excellent condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Cash flow +1.3/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Expert design enhances every room of The Henderson two-story floor plan by David Weekley Homes in Walden Creek. The front door reveals a sprawling view of the sunny and open gathering spaces at the heart of this home. Open sight lines extending through the dining space and out onto the covered porch, a step-in pantry and a center island all contribute to the culinary appeal of the contemporary kitchen. The Owner's Retreat provides a great place to begin and end each day with an Owner's Bath and walk-in closet. A trio of secondary bedrooms on the upper level offer privacy and comfort.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Step-in pantry
• Front study

Tags

• TWO-STORY FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED PORCH
• STEP-IN PANTRY
• CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FRONT STUDY

🏗️ New construction. The $444,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $698,067.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $445k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-34k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (33.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (42.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (42.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.5% vs local median 2.5% in Montgomery — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stewart Creek El (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 738 students, 46% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1575 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,148 (42.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.37% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.15%
• DSCR: 0.24
• GRM: 22.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $698,067
• List price: $444,990
• Delta: -36.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18848 Harbor Side Blvd	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,751 (0%)	5mo	$824,900	$300	83
73 La Jolla Cir	0.56mi	4/2.0	2,935 (+7%)	5mo	$549,900	$187	52
18854 Lake Terrace Dr	0.74mi	4/4.0	2,584 (-6%)	2mo	$579,900	$224	51
18989 Harbor Side Blvd	0.58mi	4/3.5	3,006 (+9%)	13mo	$738,500	$246	46
212 La Costa Dr	0.74mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,638 (-4%)	18mo	$425,000	$161	37
11675 Renaissance Dr	0.70mi	4/4.0	3,100 (+13%)	18mo	$959,000	$309	30
18904 Mystic Pt	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,043 (+11%)	18mo	$649,000	$213	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -53.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-298,483
• Equity at exit: $104,084

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.65×
• Total profit: $-517,915
• Equity at exit: $60,356

Cash invested: $195,459 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 79 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 47.4 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $523,990 ($193/sqft)
• Median days on market: 30 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +31.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1575
• Price-to-rent: 14.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,571 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,661
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$873 /mo · $10,471/yr
• Insurance: −$291
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-2,793

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,107

Max offer price $293,958

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,310	-5% $-2,552	+0% $-2,793	+5% $-3,034	+10% $-3,275
Rent	-10% $-2,996	-5% $-2,894	+0% $-2,793	+5% $-2,691	+10% $-2,590
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,441	-0.5pp $-2,615	base $-2,793	+0.5pp $-2,974	+1.0pp $-3,158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,517
• Closing costs: $20,942
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9913 Crescent Cove Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1805	$2,399	$1.33	0d	29	0.42mi
47 Presidio Rd Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	2059	$2,300	$1.12	108d	1	1.04mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 18519 Scarlet Paintbrush Dr, Montgomery TX 77356Listing status: ActiveVirtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $449,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: New construction plan (Henderson)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,751

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan home (Henderson)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $444,990 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $444,990 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $444,990 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $444,990 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $444,990 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $444,990 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $444,990 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $444,990 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $444,990 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $444,990 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $444,990 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $444,990 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $444,990 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-09-06
    price $444,990 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $449,990 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $449,990 Active 35 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $449,990 Active 33 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $449,990 Active 31 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $449,990 Active 29 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $449,990 Active 28 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $449,990 Active 27 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $449,990 Active 25 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $449,990 Active 24 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $449,990 Active 23 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $449,990 Active 22 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $449,990 Active 21 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $449,990 Active 20 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $449,990 Active 19 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $449,990 Active 18 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $449,990 Active 17 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $449,990 Active 16 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $449,990 Active 15 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $449,990 Active 14 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $449,990 Active 13 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $449,990 Active 12 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $449,990 Active 11 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $449,990 Active 10 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $449,990 Active 9 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $449,990 Active 8 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $449,990 Active 6 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $449,990 Active 5 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $449,990 Active 4 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $449,990 Active 3 DOM
44. 2026-08-01
    pricedays on marketlisting id $449,990 Active 1 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $459,990 Active 69 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $459,990 Active 67 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $459,990 Active 66 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $459,990 Active 62 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $459,990 Active 61 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $459,990 Active 60 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,858
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,103
• − Property taxes: −$10,471
• − Insurance: −$3,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,469
• − Management: −$2,469
• − Depreciation: −$20,307
• Taxable loss: −$47,451
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,388
• After-tax cash flow: $-22,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 17 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Henderson Plan by David Weekley Homes in Walden Creek is in excellent condition with modern design and well-maintained features. It offers a great opportunity for an investor looking to maximize both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Stewart Creek El C TX #686/4,322 Nat'l #10,846/41,679 Middle Montgomery J H B+ TX #145/1,662 Nat'l #1,667/14,009 High Montgomery H S C TX #327/1,632 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 18519 Scarlet Paintbrush Dr, Montgomery TX 77356Listing status: ActiveVirtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $449,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: New construction plan (Henderson)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,751

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan home (Henderson)