1924 Hillwood Rd · Forked River, NJ 08731

$329,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1988 4,791 sqft lot $300/sqft · 21% below area Est $417k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Pool

Tags

• KITCHEN WITH SLIDER ACCESS
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• IN-GROUND POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 1,100 living area

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family property (Barnegat Pines neighborhood, Lacey area)
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (1.5 total bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Outdoor lighting; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.2% in Forked River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#464 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lacey Township School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 472 in NJ (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $330k implies a 275% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,488 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.48%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $417,076
• List price: $329,900
• Delta: -20.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1800 Ravine Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,126 (+2%)	4mo	$409,000	$363	79
20 Norwick Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+12%)	0mo	$280,000	$227	67
11 Portsmouth Dr	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,127 (+2%)	5mo	$300,000	$266	67
748 Tappan St	0.70mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,076 (-2%)	4mo	$435,000	$404	53
825 Center St	0.71mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,164 (+6%)	0mo	$480,000	$412	50
930 Devon St	0.67mi	2/1.5	1,176 (+7%)	9mo	$400,000	$340	48
913 Tappan St	0.59mi	2/1.0	992 (-10%)	6mo	$390,000	$393	47
2095 Llewellyn Pkwy	0.50mi	2/1.0	966 (-12%)	7mo	$365,000	$378	46
615 Devon St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-8%)	0mo	$406,000	$403	43
1533 Arient Rd	0.55mi	3/1.5 (+1)	960 (-13%)	5mo	$402,000	$419	42
476 Lake Barnegat Dr S	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	996 (-10%)	8mo	$399,000	$401	41
1436 Leguene Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	990 (-10%)	8mo	$330,000	$333	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-65,599
• Equity at exit: $49,189

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-72,685
• Equity at exit: $28,524

Cash invested: $92,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08731

• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,615 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax from tax record: −$389 /mo · $4,671/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,857

Max offer price $296,156

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4	-5% $-98	+0% $-191	+5% $-284	+10% $-378
Rent	-10% $-398	-5% $-294	+0% $-191	+5% $-88	+10% $16
Rate	-1.0pp $-25	-0.5pp $-107	base $-191	+0.5pp $-277	+1.0pp $-363

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,475
• Closing costs: $9,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $329,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,900 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,900 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,900 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $329,900 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $329,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,900 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,900 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $349,900 Active 337-char remark
16. 1998-04-30
    soldstatus $88,000
17. 1987-03-25
    soldstatus $7,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,671 · $389/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,443 · $537/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,772/yr (+$148/mo · 37.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,379
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,480
• − Property taxes: −$4,671
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,510
• − Management: −$2,510
• − Depreciation: −$9,597
• Taxable loss: −$8,040
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,929
• After-tax cash flow: $-363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lacey Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408100
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,331
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6242
• State rank: #299 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Forked River

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #17753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 21,136

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.91%
• Current HPI: 352.355
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+4298.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $329,900 MOMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $349,900 MOMLS
• 1998-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 1987-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $7,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,671 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.