161 Ashland Dr · Bull Creek, MO 65616

$108,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Other · 1 Days on market

Built 2004 5,227 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Walking distance to Bull Creek! This 3 bed/2 bath property is ready to be your new home! Offering a fenced yard, newer roof, and a convenient location just minutes off the highway. There is an entrance ramp up to the front door. Inside, a living room and kitchen with ample cabinet space, a center island, and adjacent laundry room. The primary suite features an attached bathroom with dual sink vanity, walk-in shower, and tub! 2 more bedrooms share a full hall bathroom. Take an easy walk down Ashland Drive and enjoy Bull Creek. Branson Schools. Home to be sold in as-is condition.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Newer flooring
• Spacious closets

Tags

• NEWER FLOORING
• BRAND NEW COVERED FRONT DECK
• REAR DECK
• SPLIT BEDROOM LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS CLOSETS
• LARGE WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Property subtype: Manufactured on land
• Financial info: Tax information not included per instructions
• HOA & community: Subdivision: Meadowbrook

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad; Driveway; Additional off-street parking
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home on land; Single-wide body type; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt roof; Built details: one-level (year built not provided)
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches; Partial chain link fencing; Creek on property; Level lot; Chip-and-seal road frontage on a public maintained city street

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Free-standing electric oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms details not provided
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Laminate countertops; Window coverings and blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $108k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $108k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#715 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Branson R-IV (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #44 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Branson Jr. High (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #81 of 391 statewide, top 21%, 724 students, 51% FRL); Branson High (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #145 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,423 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 1057 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $747 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.68%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-9,806
• Equity at exit: $16,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,544
• Equity at exit: $9,338

Cash invested: $30,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65616

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 1057
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,492 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$566
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $248/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,340

Max offer price $108,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $181	-5% $150	+0% $120	+5% $89	+10% $59
Rent	-10% $2	-5% $61	+0% $120	+5% $179	+10% $238
Rate	-1.0pp $174	-0.5pp $147	base $120	+0.5pp $92	+1.0pp $63

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,000
• Closing costs: $3,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
860 Lost Tree Dr Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1145	$1,125	$0.98	14d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-13
   listed $108,000 Active
3. 2024-12-13
   price $95,000
4. 2024-09-13
   price $107,500
5. 2024-08-04
   price $112,500
6. 2024-07-09
   listed $115,500 Active
7. 2024-03-13
   soldstatus
8. 2024-03-07
   soldstatus Closed 587-char remark

   Show marketing remark (587 chars)

   Walking distance to Bull Creek! This 3 bed/2 bath property is ready to be your new home! Offering a fenced yard, newer roof, and a convenient location just minutes off the highway. There is an entrance ramp up to the front door. Inside, a living room and kitchen with ample cabinet space, a center island, and adjacent laundry room. The primary suite features an attached bathroom with dual sink vanity, walk-in shower, and tub! 2 more bedrooms share a full hall bathroom. Take an easy walk down Ashland Drive and enjoy Bull Creek. Branson Schools. Home to be sold in as-is condition.

9. 2024-03-06
   status Pending 587-char remark

   Show marketing remark (587 chars)

   Walking distance to Bull Creek! This 3 bed/2 bath property is ready to be your new home! Offering a fenced yard, newer roof, and a convenient location just minutes off the highway. There is an entrance ramp up to the front door. Inside, a living room and kitchen with ample cabinet space, a center island, and adjacent laundry room. The primary suite features an attached bathroom with dual sink vanity, walk-in shower, and tub! 2 more bedrooms share a full hall bathroom. Take an easy walk down Ashland Drive and enjoy Bull Creek. Branson Schools. Home to be sold in as-is condition.

10. 2024-02-23
    price $49,900 587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    Walking distance to Bull Creek! This 3 bed/2 bath property is ready to be your new home! Offering a fenced yard, newer roof, and a convenient location just minutes off the highway. There is an entrance ramp up to the front door. Inside, a living room and kitchen with ample cabinet space, a center island, and adjacent laundry room. The primary suite features an attached bathroom with dual sink vanity, walk-in shower, and tub! 2 more bedrooms share a full hall bathroom. Take an easy walk down Ashland Drive and enjoy Bull Creek. Branson Schools. Home to be sold in as-is condition.

11. 2024-02-15
    listed $59,900 Active 587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    Walking distance to Bull Creek! This 3 bed/2 bath property is ready to be your new home! Offering a fenced yard, newer roof, and a convenient location just minutes off the highway. There is an entrance ramp up to the front door. Inside, a living room and kitchen with ample cabinet space, a center island, and adjacent laundry room. The primary suite features an attached bathroom with dual sink vanity, walk-in shower, and tub! 2 more bedrooms share a full hall bathroom. Take an easy walk down Ashland Drive and enjoy Bull Creek. Branson Schools. Home to be sold in as-is condition.

12. 1995-12-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $248 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,048 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$799/yr (+$67/mo · 321.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,050
• − Property taxes: −$248
• − Insurance: −$5,658
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,432
• − Management: −$1,432
• − Depreciation: −$3,142
• Taxable loss: −$62
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$15
• After-tax cash flow: $1,453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Branson R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2905760
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,473
• Composite: 41.96/100
• National rank: #3347
• State rank: #44 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bull Creek

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #715
• US rank: #23036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bull Creek, MO
• County: Taney County · 28,460 people
• Metro: Branson, MO
• Population (ZIP): 28,460
• Household income: $60,489
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1065.0

Population outlook (Taney County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,017 people
• By 2030: 61,235 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 65,225 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 68,842 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 77,705 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 82,002 · +38.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taney

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.3) · D 19.9% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -59.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.3 2020: R+57.7 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.45%
• Current HPI: 200.8392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Branson, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+80.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-05-13 Listed $108,000 SOMO
• 2024-12-13 Price Changed $95,000 SOMO
• 2024-09-13 Price Changed $107,500 SOMO
• 2024-08-04 Price Changed $112,500 SOMO
• 2024-07-09 Listed $115,500 SOMO
• 2024-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-03-07 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2024-03-06 Pending — SOMO
• 2024-02-23 Price Changed $49,900 SOMO
• 2024-02-15 Listed $59,900 SOMO
• 1995-12-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $248 · +149.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.