206 Hinton · Three Rivers, TX 78071

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,220 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 1970 0.35 ac lot Est $165k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Grat Location and new roof along with large metal shop !

Key facts

• Large metal shop
• New roof
• 0.35 acre lot

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• LARGE METAL SHOP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Space for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water available; Public sewer available
• Home design: Single-story home; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding; Metal roof; Built on pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: No specific exterior features listed; Lot approximately 0.35 acres

Interior

• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Hardwood and laminate flooring; No additional interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $121 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (2.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#118 in TX, #3,769 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Three Rivers ISD (rural): math 46% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #287 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12 units permitted in Live Oak County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Live Oak County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,459 (2.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.46%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,700
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1600 Brambleberry Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,225 (+0%)	9mo	$168,500	$138	56
504 Goebel Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (+7%)	15mo	$62,000	$48	47
404 E Alexander St	0.70mi	2/1.0	1,188 (-3%)	21mo	$159,999	$135	46
502 E Tips St	0.64mi	2/1.0	1,044 (-14%)	4mo	$149,500	$143	43
510 E Alexander St	0.71mi	2/1.0	1,088 (-11%)	8mo	$85,000	$78	42
1504 Cadillac Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,353 (+11%)	23mo	$157,500	$116	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $32,388
• Equity at exit: $74,418

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $96,664
• Equity at exit: $120,469

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78071

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,465 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $225	-5% $173	+0% $121	+5% $69	+10% $18
Rent	-10% $5	-5% $63	+0% $121	+5% $179	+10% $237
Rate	-1.0pp $197	-0.5pp $159	base $121	+0.5pp $82	+1.0pp $43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1870 King David Dr Unit 206 Three Rivers, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$750	$0.88	21d	1	0.52mi
2103 Vista Rosa Unit A Three Rivers, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,850	$1.48	14d	1	0.78mi
2105 Vista Rosa Unit B Three Rivers, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,850	$1.48	14d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 56-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,406
• − Management: −$1,406
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$992
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$238
• After-tax cash flow: $1,691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Three Rivers ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842690
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,554
• Composite: 37.6/100
• National rank: #4381
• State rank: #287 of 826 in TX

Livability — Three Rivers

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #118
• US rank: #3769

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Three Rivers, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,478

Population outlook (Live Oak County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,886 people
• By 2030: 14,793 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 16,633 · +19.8%
• By 2050: 18,511 · +33.3%
• By 2075: 23,859 · +71.8%
• By 2100: 26,396 · +90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 33% Two or more races 14% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 45% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Live Oak

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.9% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+66.9 2016: R+63.5 2012: R+54.5 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.82%
• Current HPI: 134.8309
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.1% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $149,900 CBMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $88,000 RAAR
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $88,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $88,000 CBMLS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $90,000 RAAR
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $90,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $90,000 CBMLS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $99,000 RAAR
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $99,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $99,000 CBMLS
• 2025-04-19 Price Changed $107,000 RAAR
• 2025-04-19 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-19 Price Changed $107,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-04-19 Price Changed $107,000 CBMLS
• 2025-04-04 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-03 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2025-03-28 Listed $112,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-03-28 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-03-28 Listed $112,000 CBMLS
• 2023-04-04 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2023-03-06 Price Changed $74,500 LERA
• 2022-07-13 Relisted — LERA
• 2022-06-16 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2022-06-07 Price Changed $75,000 LERA
• 2022-05-13 Price Changed $80,000 LERA
• 2022-03-02 Price Changed $105,000 LERA
• 2021-08-14 Price Changed $145,000 LERA
• 2021-07-01 Price Changed $200,000 LERA
• 2021-06-16 Listed $150,000 LERA