13924 Aguila Ave · Vero Beach South, FL 34951

$152,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 230 Days on market

Built 1999 Est $155k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amenities Galore! Spacious 2/2/1 CBS Home. Vaulted Ceilings, Large Screened Porch, Large Master Suite. Private Location in Desirable Active Adult Lifestyle Community. Golf, Tennis, Swimming, Gym, Shuffleboard, Clubhouse, Events and Much More. Convenient to Everything, Beaches, Shopping, Dining, Entertainment.

Key facts

• Private lot
• Pickleball
• 2 pools

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• WOODED AREA
• SCREENED IN PATIO
• 18 HOLE GOLF COURSE
• 2 POOLS
• PICKLEBALL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior community
• Financial info: Pets allowed (pet restrictions possible)
• HOA & community: Has association; Association amenities include: billiard room, clubhouse, dog park, fitness center, golf course, game room, pool, shuffleboard court, tennis courts, bocce ball, community room, library, pickleball courts; Association fees include maintenance of grounds, trash service, and golf

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage (covered)
• Security: Security patrol
• Utilities: Three-phase electric; Cable available; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; Resale; 1 story; Faces south
• Construction: Concrete construction; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Blinds; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage; Laundry tub

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $152k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $773 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $152k).
• Recommended offer: $134k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 4.3% in Vero Beach South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#163 in FL, #2,445 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $152k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.79%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $154,780
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6655 Alemendra St	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,530 (+8%)	2mo	$175,000	$114	79
6531 Teresita Ct	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,403 (-1%)	1mo	$142,500	$102	78
6713 Gaviota	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,420 (0%)	16mo	$152,000	$107	78
14126 Cisne Cir	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,487 (+5%)	7mo	$150,000	$101	69
6763 Mar Pacifico	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,451 (+2%)	4mo	$154,000	$106	59
14374 Azucena Court Ct	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,599 (+13%)	9mo	$175,000	$109	50
14434 Azucena Ct	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,487 (+5%)	24mo	$170,000	$114	48
14892 Aguila Ave	0.60mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,310 (-8%)	6mo	$259,000	$198	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $24,541
• Equity at exit: $22,664

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $84,541
• Equity at exit: $13,142

Cash invested: $42,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34951

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,134 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$797
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $628/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $773

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,155

Max offer price $152,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,000
• Closing costs: $4,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6765 Spanish Lakes Blvd Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,500	$1.83	23d	1	0.51mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $152,000 Active 230 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $152,000 Active 229 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $152,000 Active 228 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $152,000 Active 227 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $152,000 Active 225 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $152,000 Active 224 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $152,000 Active 222 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $152,000 Active 221 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $152,000 Active 220 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $156,000 Active 220 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $156,000 Active 219 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $156,000 Active 216 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $156,000 Active 215 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $156,000 Active 214 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $156,000 Active 213 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $156,000 Active 212 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $156,000 Active 211 DOM
18. 2026-02-18
    price $156,000
19. 2025-10-31
    listed $165,000 Active
20. 2017-05-09
    soldstatus $60,000 311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    Amenities Galore! Spacious 2/2/1 CBS Home. Vaulted Ceilings, Large Screened Porch, Large Master Suite. Private Location in Desirable Active Adult Lifestyle Community. Golf, Tennis, Swimming, Gym, Shuffleboard, Clubhouse, Events and Much More. Convenient to Everything, Beaches, Shopping, Dining, Entertainment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $628 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,262 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$633/yr (+$53/mo · 100.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,605
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,514
• − Property taxes: −$628
• − Insurance: −$760
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,048
• − Management: −$2,048
• − Depreciation: −$4,422
• Taxable income: $7,184
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,724
• After-tax cash flow: $7,550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vero Beach South

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #163
• US rank: #2445

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,148
• Household income: $63,122
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 140.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.06%
• Current HPI: 343.1376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+160.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $156,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $165,000 Beaches MLS
• 2017-05-09 Sold (MLS) $60,000 RAIRCMLS

Property tax history

-5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $628 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.