10820 Longleaf Dr · Oak Ridge North, TX 77385

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,712 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1976 0.26 ac lot Est $306k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NO FLOODING PER SELLERS since they lived here-purchased the home May, 2015! Updated home only minutes from The Woodlands and Montgomery County entertainment and work centers-backs to home in acreage community of White Oak Estates- very private setting! Updated with easy-care floors in all living areas and both bathrooms. NEW high quality carpet in all bedrooms. New vanity in Master, new mirrors in both bathrooms. Granite counters in kitchen+ gorgeous ceramic backsplash! French Doors in front rooms make it easy to create a perfect Home Office, Study or Gameroom! New light fixtures, ceiling fans in most rooms. Neutral re-painting throughout the home. Refrigerator, washer and dryer included. Utility room in the house-next to kitchen! 2 storage units in back yard make it easy to store yard tools (riding lawn mower?) and more!

Key facts

• A c
• Huge concrete patio
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• HUGE CONCRETE PATIO
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• NEW ROOF
• A C

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first floor living); Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1976; Located in a subdivision
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Backyard fence; Storage shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 13 x 12; Bedroom (first floor) — 13 x 9; Bedroom (first floor) — 12 x 10; Office (first floor) — 12 x 11; Dining room (first floor) — 15 x 10; Kitchen (first floor) — 12 x 10; Breakfast nook (first floor) — 7 x 6; Family room (first floor) — 16 x 16
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Pantry; Tub shower; Window treatments / window coverings; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Insulated doors; Free-standing wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.1% in Oak Ridge North — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#8 in TX, #708 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities D+.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oak Ridge H S (math 48% / reading 62%, grade C, #373 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 2,672 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,023 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.77%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,448
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1619 Ashway St	0.05mi	3/3.0	1,856 (+8%)	2mo	$349,900	$189	78
10507 Twin Oak Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,702 (-1%)	6mo	$264,900	$156	75
1452 Glenoaks Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,646 (-4%)	7mo	$294,900	$179	73
10921 Oriole Pl	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,542 (-10%)	1mo	$279,999	$182	68
32094 Quail Terrace Lane Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,710 (-0%)	5mo	$299,500	$175	63
10732 Twin Oaks Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-10%)	7mo	$250,000	$161	62
2622 Prairie Star Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-6%)	1mo	$298,000	$186	56
32086 Quail Terrace Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,609 (-6%)	3mo	$299,000	$186	56
10348 Stone Gate Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,820 (+6%)	3mo	$279,500	$154	55
2606 Ivy Wood Ln	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,740 (+2%)	6mo	$339,000	$195	55
1615 Beech Dr Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-15%)	2mo	$259,900	$179	54
31878 Forest Park Trl	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,822 (+6%)	3mo	$275,000	$151	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-47,966
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-42,598
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77385

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,160 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,792/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,299

Max offer price $245,647

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10648 Fussel Rd Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,300	$1.35	44d	1	0.73mi
32331 Summer Park Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1796	$2,000	$1.11	22d	1	0.95mi
2519 Braley Park Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$2,049	$1.14	14d	1	1.02mi
32411 Cross Spring Park Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,200	$1.12	18d	1	1.07mi
10118 Falvey Lake Ln Unit 19551 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,560	$1.30	7d	1	1.07mi
10118 Falvey Lake Ln Unit 19547 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,650	$1.36	7d	1	1.07mi
1431 Redwood Village Cir Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	2014	$2,250	$1.12	22d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Pending 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Pending 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Pending 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Pending 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $265,000 Pending 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $265,000 Pending 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $265,000 Pending 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $265,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-05-04
    price $269,900 1038-char remark
12. 2026-04-10
    listed $275,000 Active 1038-char remark
13. 2018-08-16
    soldstatus Sold 833-char remark

    Show marketing remark (833 chars)

    NO FLOODING PER SELLERS since they lived here-purchased the home May, 2015! Updated home only minutes from The Woodlands and Montgomery County entertainment and work centers-backs to home in acreage community of White Oak Estates- very private setting! Updated with easy-care floors in all living areas and both bathrooms. NEW high quality carpet in all bedrooms. New vanity in Master, new mirrors in both bathrooms. Granite counters in kitchen+ gorgeous ceramic backsplash! French Doors in front rooms make it easy to create a perfect Home Office, Study or Gameroom! New light fixtures, ceiling fans in most rooms. Neutral re-painting throughout the home. Refrigerator, washer and dryer included. Utility room in the house-next to kitchen! 2 storage units in back yard make it easy to store yard tools (riding lawn mower?) and more!

14. 2018-08-16
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (833 chars)

    NO FLOODING PER SELLERS since they lived here-purchased the home May, 2015! Updated home only minutes from The Woodlands and Montgomery County entertainment and work centers-backs to home in acreage community of White Oak Estates- very private setting! Updated with easy-care floors in all living areas and both bathrooms. NEW high quality carpet in all bedrooms. New vanity in Master, new mirrors in both bathrooms. Granite counters in kitchen+ gorgeous ceramic backsplash! French Doors in front rooms make it easy to create a perfect Home Office, Study or Gameroom! New light fixtures, ceiling fans in most rooms. Neutral re-painting throughout the home. Refrigerator, washer and dryer included. Utility room in the house-next to kitchen! 2 storage units in back yard make it easy to store yard tools (riding lawn mower?) and more!

15. 2018-07-22
    status Pending 833-char remark

    Show marketing remark (833 chars)

    NO FLOODING PER SELLERS since they lived here-purchased the home May, 2015! Updated home only minutes from The Woodlands and Montgomery County entertainment and work centers-backs to home in acreage community of White Oak Estates- very private setting! Updated with easy-care floors in all living areas and both bathrooms. NEW high quality carpet in all bedrooms. New vanity in Master, new mirrors in both bathrooms. Granite counters in kitchen+ gorgeous ceramic backsplash! French Doors in front rooms make it easy to create a perfect Home Office, Study or Gameroom! New light fixtures, ceiling fans in most rooms. Neutral re-painting throughout the home. Refrigerator, washer and dryer included. Utility room in the house-next to kitchen! 2 storage units in back yard make it easy to store yard tools (riding lawn mower?) and more!

16. 2018-07-11
    status Option Pending 833-char remark

    Show marketing remark (833 chars)

    NO FLOODING PER SELLERS since they lived here-purchased the home May, 2015! Updated home only minutes from The Woodlands and Montgomery County entertainment and work centers-backs to home in acreage community of White Oak Estates- very private setting! Updated with easy-care floors in all living areas and both bathrooms. NEW high quality carpet in all bedrooms. New vanity in Master, new mirrors in both bathrooms. Granite counters in kitchen+ gorgeous ceramic backsplash! French Doors in front rooms make it easy to create a perfect Home Office, Study or Gameroom! New light fixtures, ceiling fans in most rooms. Neutral re-painting throughout the home. Refrigerator, washer and dryer included. Utility room in the house-next to kitchen! 2 storage units in back yard make it easy to store yard tools (riding lawn mower?) and more!

17. 2018-07-09
    status Active 833-char remark

    Show marketing remark (833 chars)

    NO FLOODING PER SELLERS since they lived here-purchased the home May, 2015! Updated home only minutes from The Woodlands and Montgomery County entertainment and work centers-backs to home in acreage community of White Oak Estates- very private setting! Updated with easy-care floors in all living areas and both bathrooms. NEW high quality carpet in all bedrooms. New vanity in Master, new mirrors in both bathrooms. Granite counters in kitchen+ gorgeous ceramic backsplash! French Doors in front rooms make it easy to create a perfect Home Office, Study or Gameroom! New light fixtures, ceiling fans in most rooms. Neutral re-painting throughout the home. Refrigerator, washer and dryer included. Utility room in the house-next to kitchen! 2 storage units in back yard make it easy to store yard tools (riding lawn mower?) and more!

18. 2018-07-01
    status Option Pending 833-char remark

    Show marketing remark (833 chars)

    NO FLOODING PER SELLERS since they lived here-purchased the home May, 2015! Updated home only minutes from The Woodlands and Montgomery County entertainment and work centers-backs to home in acreage community of White Oak Estates- very private setting! Updated with easy-care floors in all living areas and both bathrooms. NEW high quality carpet in all bedrooms. New vanity in Master, new mirrors in both bathrooms. Granite counters in kitchen+ gorgeous ceramic backsplash! French Doors in front rooms make it easy to create a perfect Home Office, Study or Gameroom! New light fixtures, ceiling fans in most rooms. Neutral re-painting throughout the home. Refrigerator, washer and dryer included. Utility room in the house-next to kitchen! 2 storage units in back yard make it easy to store yard tools (riding lawn mower?) and more!

19. 2018-06-28
    listed $159,900 Active 833-char remark

    Show marketing remark (833 chars)

    NO FLOODING PER SELLERS since they lived here-purchased the home May, 2015! Updated home only minutes from The Woodlands and Montgomery County entertainment and work centers-backs to home in acreage community of White Oak Estates- very private setting! Updated with easy-care floors in all living areas and both bathrooms. NEW high quality carpet in all bedrooms. New vanity in Master, new mirrors in both bathrooms. Granite counters in kitchen+ gorgeous ceramic backsplash! French Doors in front rooms make it easy to create a perfect Home Office, Study or Gameroom! New light fixtures, ceiling fans in most rooms. Neutral re-painting throughout the home. Refrigerator, washer and dryer included. Utility room in the house-next to kitchen! 2 storage units in back yard make it easy to store yard tools (riding lawn mower?) and more!

20. 2015-07-07
    soldstatus Sold
21. 2015-07-07
    soldstatus
22. 2015-05-11
    status Pending
23. 2015-04-29
    status Option Pending
24. 2015-04-21
    price $160,000
25. 2015-03-17
    listed $179,500 Active
26. 2005-11-29
    soldstatus
27. 2000-08-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,792 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,850 · $404/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,057/yr (+$88/mo · 27.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,792
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,074
• − Management: −$2,074
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$5,895
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,415
• After-tax cash flow: $100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Ridge North

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #708

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute B- Cost of living C Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,156
• Household income: $117,118
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 471.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 16% Black 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.09%
• Current HPI: 239.9434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.88%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+47.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2018-08-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-08-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-07-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-07-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-07-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-07-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-06-28 Listed $159,900 HARMLS
• 2015-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-07-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-04-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-04-21 Price Changed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2015-03-17 Listed $179,500 HARMLS
• 2005-11-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-08-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,792 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.