17768 Sintonte Dr · San Diego, CA 92128

$649,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,519 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1976 0.33 ac lot $63/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ATTENTION ALL BUILDERS, REMODELERS, FLIPPERS, CUSTOM HOME SITE BUYERS!!! Opportunity knocks! Here is a chance to create the home of your dreams in one of San Diego’s recreation dreamscapes! First, the important stuff: DO NOT GO ON PROPERTY! The property's current condition has extensive hazardous material requiring abatement or teardown removal. Ok, now that that part is done… Here is an amazing opportunity for CASH ONLY buyers to create a masterpiece. Set within strolling distance of the Rancho Bernardo Inn, and a few minutes drive to the RB Swim and Tennis Club, you couldn’t ask for a better location. The current structure is not habitable, but the pricing reflects stri

Key facts

• Racquetball courts
• Pickleball courts
• Hot tubs

Tags

• BUILT-IN BARBEQUE AREA
• POOLS
• HOT TUBS
• TENNIS COURTS
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• RACQUETBALL COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: RANCHO BERNARDO; Directions: Head South on Sintonte Dr from Mirasol Dr.
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $63 monthly fee; Community features include curbs and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (4 parking spaces total); Garage parking
• Utilities: Sewer connected
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Located in Rancho Bernardo / Bernardo Greens community; One story
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: In-ground pool; Composition roof; Publicly maintained road access; Curbs and sidewalks (community)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Single-story layout; Partial fencing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $649k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($744/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $523k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $523k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.0% in San Diego — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in CA, #4,206 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
• Poway Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #317 of 517 in CA (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 231 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,225/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($131k/yr) (locally 1703% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $522,542 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.41%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,501,324
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17768 Sintonte Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,519 (0%)	1mo	$1,004,000	$399	95
12055 Tretagnier Cir	0.37mi	3/2.5	2,344 (-7%)	2mo	$1,610,000	$687	68
17373 Graciosa Ct	0.52mi	3/2.5	2,532 (+0%)	9mo	$1,575,000	$622	65
12022 Versailles Ct	0.39mi	3/2.5	2,673 (+6%)	8mo	$1,440,000	$539	63
12595 Camino Vuelo	0.52mi	3/2.5	2,348 (-7%)	0mo	$1,020,000	$434	62
17716 Rosedown Pl	0.30mi	3/2.5	2,344 (-7%)	15mo	$1,350,000	$576	60
17950 Mirasol Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,697 (+7%)	13mo	$1,607,500	$596	60
11615 Alveo Way	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,430 (-4%)	0mo	$1,300,000	$535	55
12411 Floresta Way	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,280 (-10%)	13mo	$1,800,000	$789	54
12012 Fairhope Rd	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,281 (-9%)	13mo	$1,375,000	$603	50
11940 Adorno Pl	0.67mi	3/2.5	2,808 (+12%)	6mo	$1,352,500	$482	43
17111 Prado Pl	0.71mi	3/2.0	2,171 (-14%)	4mo	$1,515,000	$698	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-109,470
• Equity at exit: $96,768

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-123,081
• Equity at exit: $56,114

Cash invested: $181,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92128

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 231
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,225 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,403
• Tax from tax record: −$329 /mo · $3,950/yr
• Insurance: −$270
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,097
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,147

Max offer price $649,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $429	-5% $246	+0% $62	+5% $-122	+10% $-305
Rent	-10% $-351	-5% $-144	+0% $62	+5% $268	+10% $475
Rate	-1.0pp $389	-0.5pp $227	base $62	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-277

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,250
• Closing costs: $19,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12411 Floresta Way San Diego, CA	2.0	2.0	2280	$2,650	$1.16	21d	1	0.22mi
17645 Rienzi Pl San Diego, CA	4.0	3.0	2860	$6,200	$2.17	45d	1	0.33mi
17481 Fairhope Ct Unit NA San Diego, CA	4.0	2.0	2300	$6,200	$2.70	6d	1	0.42mi
12573 Parma Ct San Diego, CA	4.0	2.0	1862	$4,695	$2.52	6d	1	0.74mi
11468 Alcalde Ct San Diego, CA	4.0	3.0	2679	$6,500	$2.43	4d	1	0.85mi
17540 Hada Dr San Diego, CA	3.0	2.5	2250	$4,799	$2.13	23d	1	0.87mi
17774 Azucar Way San Diego, CA	3.0	2.5	1921	$4,200	$2.19	25d	1	1.05mi
12592 Heatherfield Ln San Diego, CA	3.0	2.0	1850	$4,500	$2.43	0d	1	1.12mi
18106 Chieftain Ct San Diego, CA	4.0	3.0	2892	$7,995	$2.76	0d	1	1.13mi
11216 Monticook Ct San Diego, CA	4.0	3.0	2589	$6,000	$2.32	45d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-10
   listed $649,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,950 · $329/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,932 · $411/mo
• Expected delta: +$982/yr (+$82/mo · 24.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,354
• − Property taxes: −$3,950
• − Insurance: −$3,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,016
• − Management: −$5,016
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$18,880
• Taxable loss: −$10,513
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,523
• After-tax cash flow: $3,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0631530
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -45.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -50.00%
• Median HH income: $102,903
• Composite: 27.12/100
• National rank: #7036
• State rank: #317 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Diego

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #4206

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Diego, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 1,397,612
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,992
• Household income: $131,077
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1703.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Asian 27% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 27% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Chinese 6% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -470.54%
• Current HPI: 355.1065
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — SDMLS
• 2026-04-18 Contingent — SDMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $649,000 SDMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,950 · +18.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.