10408 Middle Ln · Casco, MI 48064

$76,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 51 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $62/sqft · 305% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seeking affordable living within an active, all-age community? Anchor Bay in Casco, Michigan, is your ideal destination. Enjoy convenient access to local recreation, shopping, and entertainment in this picturesque community. Anchor Bay boasts a wealth of amenities, including a swimming pool, clubhouse, two playgrounds, volleyball & basketball court, and fitness center ensuring residents have ample opportunities for recreation and relaxation right at their doorstep.

Key facts

• Volleyball court
• Fitness center
• Clubhouse

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUNDS
• VOLLEYBALL COURT
• BASKETBALL COURT
• FITNESS CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $77k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $732 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $77k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Anchor Bay School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #91 of 540 in MI (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 232 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $532 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $74,593 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.78%
• DSCR: 2.81
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $19,000
• List price: $76,900
• Delta: 304.74%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $34,170
• Equity at exit: $11,466

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.17×
• Total profit: $89,866
• Equity at exit: $6,649

Cash invested: $21,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48064

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,599 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$403
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$96 /mo · $1,154/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $732

Break-even live

Break-even rent $673

Max offer price $76,900

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,225
• Closing costs: $2,307
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5407 Aloha Ln Casco, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1152	$1,599	$1.39	1d	1	0.14mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $76,900 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $76,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $76,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $76,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $76,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $76,900 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $76,900 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $76,900 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $76,900 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $76,900 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $76,900 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $76,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $76,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    status Active 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Seeking affordable living within an active, all-age community? Anchor Bay in Casco, Michigan, is your ideal destination. Enjoy convenient access to local recreation, shopping, and entertainment in this picturesque community. Anchor Bay boasts a wealth of amenities, including a swimming pool, clubhouse, two playgrounds, volleyball & basketball court, and fitness center ensuring residents have ample opportunities for recreation and relaxation right at their doorstep.

15. 2026-04-17
    historical 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Seeking affordable living within an active, all-age community? Anchor Bay in Casco, Michigan, is your ideal destination. Enjoy convenient access to local recreation, shopping, and entertainment in this picturesque community. Anchor Bay boasts a wealth of amenities, including a swimming pool, clubhouse, two playgrounds, volleyball & basketball court, and fitness center ensuring residents have ample opportunities for recreation and relaxation right at their doorstep.

16. 2026-04-08
    listed $76,900 Active 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Seeking affordable living within an active, all-age community? Anchor Bay in Casco, Michigan, is your ideal destination. Enjoy convenient access to local recreation, shopping, and entertainment in this picturesque community. Anchor Bay boasts a wealth of amenities, including a swimming pool, clubhouse, two playgrounds, volleyball & basketball court, and fitness center ensuring residents have ample opportunities for recreation and relaxation right at their doorstep.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,308
• − Property taxes: −$1,154
• − Insurance: −$384
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,535
• − Management: −$1,535
• − Depreciation: −$2,237
• Taxable income: $8,035
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,928
• After-tax cash flow: $6,853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It is ready for move-in and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint to enhance curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can add value.
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and prevents water damage

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can add value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and prevents water damage ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchor Bay School District
• NCES district ID: 2602790
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,173
• Composite: 43.85/100
• National rank: #2925
• State rank: #91 of 540 in MI

Livability — Casco

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,996

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 154,587 people
• By 2030: 150,031 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 138,177 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 124,390 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 95,825 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 68,672 · -55.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 11% German 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.6) · D 32.0% · R 66.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.6 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+7.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.97%
• Current HPI: 232.1357
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Listed $76,900 Zillow