15911 Plagens Ln · Houston, TX 77489

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,390 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1976 7,540 sqft lot Est $229k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special in a Hot Market! Opportunities like this don't come around often. Packed with potential, this property is perfect for investors looking to add value and capitalize on the upside. Property needs work but offers a strong value-add opportunity. Motivated seller ready to close ASAP. Vacant and on lockbox for easy access. Submit your offers today!

Key facts

• 7,540 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1976

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of Briargate HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1976; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace; 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $329 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 835 students, 94% FRL); Willowridge H S (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 1,319 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 35% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-31 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 186 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $189 of equity ($933 loan paydown + $-744 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $135k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.45%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $229,350
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6647 Villarreal Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,268 (-9%)	0mo	$194,800	$154	74
6431 Marinwood Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+1%)	1mo	$270,000	$192	74
6706 Castleview Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,364 (-2%)	2mo	$195,000	$143	74
6614 Villarreal Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,524 (+10%)	4mo	$69,900	$46	70
16222 Coyridge Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,275 (-8%)	2mo	$235,000	$184	69
16123 Canaridge Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,265 (-9%)	0mo	$220,000	$174	68
7023 Maczali Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+6%)	1mo	$189,000	$128	68
6618 Castleview Ln	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,458 (+5%)	1mo	$260,000	$178	66
15615 Raven Trl	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,268 (-9%)	5mo	$229,999	$181	61
15626 Briargate Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+13%)	4mo	$220,000	$140	61
15903 Kenbrook Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,487 (+7%)	1mo	$245,000	$165	58
15906 Willbriar Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-5%)	1mo	$182,500	$138	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.55% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $9,024
• Equity at exit: $35,521

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $31,155
• Equity at exit: $39,862

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77489

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,780 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$313 /mo · $3,759/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,364

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $405	-5% $367	+0% $329	+5% $291	+10% $253
Rent	-10% $188	-5% $259	+0% $329	+5% $399	+10% $470
Rate	-1.0pp $397	-0.5pp $363	base $329	+0.5pp $294	+1.0pp $258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16211 Corsair Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1139	$1,813	$1.59	25d	1	0.28mi
6610 Rowell Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1753	$2,056	$1.17	5d	1	0.50mi
6406 Summer Ridge Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,958	$1.21	3d	1	0.51mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,513	$1.12	11d	1	0.56mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Apt 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,292	$1.26	5d	1	0.56mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,481	$1.10	3d	1	0.56mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 16489 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,317	$1.28	44d	1	0.56mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 2112 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,284	$1.25	3d	1	0.56mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,327	$1.29	11d	1	0.56mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 16465 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,524	$1.13	44d	1	0.56mi
5721 Melanite Ave Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1634	$1,481	$0.91	20d	1	0.85mi
16603 Sentinel Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,799	$1.39	17d	1	1.01mi
15703 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,615	$1.29	20d	1	1.10mi
15823 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,641	$1.23	5d	1	1.15mi
5030 Shadowridge Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,800	$1.37	44d	1	1.39mi
5030 Ridgecreek Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,659	$1.19	3d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 361-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $135,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,759 · $313/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,759 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$3,759
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,709
• − Management: −$1,709
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $2,023
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$486
• After-tax cash flow: $3,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,292
• Household income: $74,689
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% White 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Current HPI: 288.1306
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+167.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-18 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2013-01-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $50,471 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,759 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.