14869 Prickly Pear Cv · Magnolia, TX 77354

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,339 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 6,629 sqft lot $161/sqft · 18% below area Est $262k · 18% under $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Mill Creek, Magnolia! This home offers a functional, open-concept layout ideal for first-time buyers or investors seeking a great rental opportunity. Features include granite countertops, durable vinyl flooring, and a spacious kitchen with a large island that opens to the living area. The primary suite includes dual sinks, a separate shower, and a large walk-in closet. Situated on a larger lot with a full sprinkler system, the backyard offers plenty of space to enjoy. Please note: the home has been vacant for some time and utilities, including power, may be off. Great potential at a great value!

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Vinyl flooring
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• VINYL FLOORING
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• DUAL SINKS
• SEPARATE SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($687/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.14%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,553
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -17.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40751 Barley Straw Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-1%)	2mo	$240,990	$181	79
40762 Barley Straw Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-1%)	2mo	$239,990	$181	75
40803 Hawthorne Glades St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-4%)	6mo	$246,990	$193	74
15053 Cherry Creek Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,415 (+6%)	8mo	$275,490	$195	73
40826 Hawthorne Glades St	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+10%)	6mo	$252,990	$172	61
40835 Hawthorne Glades St	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+10%)	6mo	$253,990	$173	60
40842 Hawthorne Glades St	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+10%)	6mo	$252,990	$172	59
15219 Black Scoter Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+9%)	7mo	$279,900	$191	57
40974 Seasoned Oak Ln	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+10%)	6mo	$251,490	$171	57
15146 Rose Willow Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-14%)	8mo	$229,990	$199	57
40850 Hawthorne Glades St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-14%)	3mo	$236,990	$205	56
40731 Barley Straw	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,476 (+10%)	2mo	$264,990	$180	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $115,024
• Equity at exit: $193,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.41×
• Total profit: $325,508
• Equity at exit: $417,698

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,244 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$436 /mo · $5,228/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,172

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40839 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,100	$1.82	44d	1	0.34mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	1d	40	0.76mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	44d	1	0.95mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	24d	1	0.96mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $215,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-02
    price $215,000 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Mill Creek, Magnolia! This home offers a functional, open-concept layout ideal for first-time buyers or investors seeking a great rental opportunity. Features include granite countertops, durable vinyl flooring, and a spacious kitchen with a large island that opens to the living area. The primary suite includes dual sinks, a separate shower, and a large walk-in closet. Situated on a larger lot with a full sprinkler system, the backyard offers plenty of space to enjoy. Please note: the home has been vacant for some time and utilities, including power, may be off. Great potential at a great value!

15. 2026-04-08
    listed $235,000 Active 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Mill Creek, Magnolia! This home offers a functional, open-concept layout ideal for first-time buyers or investors seeking a great rental opportunity. Features include granite countertops, durable vinyl flooring, and a spacious kitchen with a large island that opens to the living area. The primary suite includes dual sinks, a separate shower, and a large walk-in closet. Situated on a larger lot with a full sprinkler system, the backyard offers plenty of space to enjoy. Please note: the home has been vacant for some time and utilities, including power, may be off. Great potential at a great value!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,228 · $436/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,228 · $436/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$5,228
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,155
• − Management: −$2,155
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$2,734
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$656
• After-tax cash flow: $1,344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Magnolia is in good condition with a good ROI potential. It features granite countertops, durable vinyl flooring, and a spacious kitchen with a large island. The home is situated on a larger lot with a full sprinkler system and offers plenty of space to enjoy. The property is ready for a new owner or investor to move in and enjoy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and adding curb appeal features — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both Refrigerator and other appliances — Modernizes kitchen and improves rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and adding curb appeal features — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Refrigerator and other appliances — Modernizes kitchen and improves rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $235,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,228 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.