Is 14869 Prickly Pear Cv in Magnolia, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it B- with a 6.8% cap rate and $79/mo modeled cash flow at a $199,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 14869 Prickly Pear Cv?

The modeled cap rate is 6.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,157/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

B- Composite 65.75

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +15.5/30.0
ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Appreciation +10.0/10.0
1% rule +5.8/10.0
DSCR +4.8/10.0
Schools +4.5/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.7/5.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0

$199,000

14869 Prickly Pear Cv · Magnolia, TX 77354

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,339 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 6,629 sqft lot Garage $149/sqft · 24% below area Est $262k · 24% under $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Mill Creek, Magnolia! This home offers a functional, open-concept layout ideal for first-time buyers or investors seeking a great rental opportunity. Features include granite countertops, durable vinyl flooring, and a spacious kitchen with a large island that opens to the living area. The primary suite includes dual sinks, a separate shower, and a large walk-in closet. Situated on a larger lot with a full sprinkler system, the backyard offers plenty of space to enjoy. Please note: the home has been vacant for some time and utilities, including power, may be off. Great potential at a great value!

Key facts

Dual sinks
Vinyl flooring
Spacious kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $79 ($944/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.5% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents flat; 1924 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 1.08% ✓
Cap rate: 6.77%
Cash-on-cash: 1.69%
DSCR: 1.08
GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $261,665
List price: $199,000
Delta: -23.95%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40647 Balsam Run Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-1%)	0mo	$259,990	$196	81
40751 Barley Straw Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-1%)	4mo	$240,990	$181	78
40614 Balsam Run Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-1%)	0mo	$244,990	$184	76
40762 Barley Straw Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-1%)	3mo	$239,990	$181	74
40803 Hawthorne Glades St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-4%)	8mo	$246,990	$193	73
40659 Balsam Run Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+7%)	1mo	$239,000	$167	65
40835 Hawthorne Glades St	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+10%)	8mo	$253,990	$173	59
40842 Hawthorne Glades St	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+10%)	8mo	$252,990	$172	58
15423 Park Perch Pl	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+9%)	1mo	$274,900	$188	57
40974 Seasoned Oak Ln	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+10%)	8mo	$251,490	$171	56
40850 Hawthorne Glades St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-14%)	5mo	$236,990	$205	55
40731 Barley Straw	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,476 (+10%)	4mo	$264,990	$180	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 24.4%
Equity multiple: 2.94×
Total profit: $107,912
Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

IRR: 20.9%
Equity multiple: 6.45×
Total profit: $303,934
Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 36 active · 11 under contract
Months of supply: 13.5 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $262,490 ($176/sqft)
Median days on market: 28 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +10.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77354

Home prices YoY: 2.4%
Rents YoY: 0.3%
Active inventory: 1924
Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,157 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
Tax from tax record: −$436 /mo · $5,228/yr
Insurance: −$83
HOA: −$63
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
Net cashflow: $79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,057

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $191	-5% $135	+0% $79	+5% $22	+10% $-34
Rent	-10% $-92	-5% $-7	+0% $79	+5% $164	+10% $249
Rate	-1.0pp $179	-0.5pp $129	base $79	+0.5pp $27	+1.0pp $-25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $49,750
Closing costs: $5,970
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40427 Basalt Elm Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,975	$1.25	21d	1	0.16mi
40718 Barley Straw Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	3d	1	0.28mi
40839 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,100	$1.82	93d	1	0.34mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,781	$2.52	0d	40	0.76mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	93d	1	0.95mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	73d	1	0.96mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Association pool available
HOA & community: Community managed by InframarkAnnual association feeAssociation amenities include clubhouse, dog park, picnic area, playground, and poolAssociation fee covers recreation facilities

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage with 2 spacesDrivewayAdditional parkingGarage door opener
Security: Smoke detector(s)
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyFull ownershipSlab foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2021
Construction: Brick and cement siding constructionBuilt in 2021Slab foundationComposition roof
Exterior features: Covered patioPorchDeckPatioPrivate yardFence (back yard)Sprinkler/irrigationSubdivision and side yard

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveOvenGranite countersPantryKitchen/breakfast and kitchen/dining combo
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 19x12Bedroom (first floor) — 11x11Bedroom (first floor) — 11x11
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsDouble vanity in bath(s)
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityEntrance foyerGranite countersKitchen/family room comboPantryWalk-in pantryTub with showerWindow treatmentsKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsWindow coveringsENERGY STAR qualified appliances
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $199,000 Active 122 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $199,000 Active 120 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $199,000 Active 119 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $199,000 Active 118 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $199,000 Active 117 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $199,000 Active 114 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $199,000 Active 112 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $199,000 Active 111 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $199,000 Active 109 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $199,000 Active 107 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $199,000 Active 106 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $199,000 Active 105 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $199,000 Active 104 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $199,000 Active 103 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $199,000 Active 101 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $199,000 Active 100 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $199,000 Active 99 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $199,000 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $199,000 Active 97 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $199,000 Active 96 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $199,000 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $199,000 Active 93 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $199,000 Active 92 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $199,000 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $199,000 Active 89 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $199,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $199,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $199,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $199,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $199,000 Active 84 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $199,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-06-29

price $199,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $215,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $215,000 Active 81 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $215,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $215,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $215,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $215,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $215,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $215,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $215,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $215,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $215,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $215,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $215,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $215,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $215,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $215,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $215,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $215,000 Active 55 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $5,228 · $436/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $5,228 · $436/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $25,881
− Mortgage interest: −$11,147
− Property taxes: −$5,228
− Insurance: −$995
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,070
− Management: −$2,070
− HOA: −$756
− Depreciation: −$5,789
Taxable loss: −$2,175

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$522
After-tax cash flow: $1,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,695–$20,085 screening

This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Magnolia is in good condition with a good ROI potential. It features granite countertops, durable vinyl flooring, and a spacious kitchen with a large island. The home is situated on a larger lot with a full sprinkler system and offers plenty of space to enjoy. The property is ready for a new owner or investor to move in and enjoy.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping and adding curb appeal features — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
Both Refrigerator and other appliances — Modernizes kitchen and improves rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Willie E Williams El F TX #1,269/4,322 Nat'l #17,359/41,679 Middle Magnolia J H F TX #805/1,662 Nat'l #7,206/14,009 High Magnolia H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Magnolia ISD
NCES district ID: 4828740
Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $71,692
Composite: 39.46/100
National rank: #3958
State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Magnolia

Score: 73/100
State rank: #222
US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 32,847
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 44,900
Household income: $112,504
Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
Current HPI: 512.87
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-15.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

2026-06-29 Price Changed $199,000 HARMLS
2026-05-02 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
2026-04-08 Listed $235,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,228 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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