22279 Storybook Cabin Way · Connerton, FL 34637

$379,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,217 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 4,973 sqft lot 2-car garage $171/sqft · 11% below area Est $426k · 11% under $105/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Located in the Connerton community of Land O’ Lakes, this two-story residence built in 2023 offers 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and approximately 2,217 square feet of living space. The home features a functional floor plan with the primary suite conveniently located on the first floor. The main level includes an open-concept living area connecting the kitchen, dining area, and living room, creating a comfortable space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is fully equipped and positioned to overlook the main living spaces.

Key facts

• Swimming pools
• Community amenities
• Versatile loft area

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE ON FIRST FLOOR
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• VERSATILE LOFT AREA
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• SWIMMING POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $379k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-333/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $374k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $370k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $368k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.6% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 78d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($368k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $367,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $426,432
• List price: $379,000
• Delta: -11.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22229 Storybook Cabin Way	0.05mi	5/2.5	2,389 (+8%)	9mo	$415,000	$174	75
8934 Little Bluestem Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (+11%)	2mo	$512,500	$209	72
22489 Storybook Cabin Way	0.20mi	5/2.5	2,389 (+8%)	10mo	$410,000	$172	68
8969 Little Bluestem Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,939 (-12%)	2mo	$372,500	$192	64
8775 Little Bluestem Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,939 (-12%)	6mo	$372,500	$192	59
9845 Sword Fern Way	0.41mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (+11%)	2mo	$518,000	$211	57
9456 Gladsome Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,084 (-6%)	12mo	$475,250	$228	54
22857 Berry Patch Pl	0.56mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,084 (-6%)	8mo	$535,990	$257	52
9335 Raised Tulip Ln	0.52mi	5/2.5	2,389 (+8%)	12mo	$416,650	$174	51
9406 Gladsome Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,084 (-6%)	12mo	$479,900	$230	50
9625 Wild Begonia Loop	0.59mi	5/3.5	2,466 (+11%)	4mo	$420,000	$170	48
9568 Cairn Ct	0.63mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (+11%)	4mo	$527,900	$215	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-39,164
• Equity at exit: $81,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-13,625
• Equity at exit: $77,868

Cash invested: $106,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 19 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.4 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $435,000 ($197/sqft)
• Median days on market: 49 d
• This list price: 16% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 439
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,700 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax from tax record: −$700 /mo · $8,400/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$105
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$777
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,735

Max offer price $374,091

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $79	+0% $-28	+5% $-135	+10% $-242
Rent	-10% $-320	-5% $-174	+0% $-28	+5% $118	+10% $264
Rate	-1.0pp $163	-0.5pp $69	base $-28	+0.5pp $-126	+1.0pp $-226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,750
• Closing costs: $11,370
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8692 Little Bluestem Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	3.0	2640	$3,400	$1.29	94d	1	0.22mi
9645 Carabiner Way Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,500	$1.34	77d	1	0.53mi
21640 Violet Periwinkle Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	2954	$2,850	$0.96	89d	1	0.86mi
21816 Crest Meadow Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	3.0	2061	$3,200	$1.55	64d	1	0.93mi
22310 Blazing Star Run Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,450	$1.31	75d	1	1.23mi
22430 Blazing Star Run Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,550	$1.32	40d	1	1.23mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Connerton Blvd to Flourish Drive to Little Blue Stem Drive to Storybook Cabin Way
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,300Total annual fees: $1,260Total monthly fees: $105Lease restrictions in place
• HOA & community: Has HOA (HomeRiver Group)Monthly association fee of $105Association fee requiredCommunity amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, park, pool, sidewalks, tennis courtsPets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedWater connectedSewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residenceTwo storiesSouth-facingMPUD zoning
• Construction: Block, stucco, frame and other construction materialsShingle and other roof typesConcrete perimeter and slab foundationBuilt on a 0.11-acre lot
• Exterior features: SidewalkIrrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalRangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorOther appliance(s)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fansEat-in kitchenOpen floorplanThermostatWalk-in closets10 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry roomWasherDryer

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $379,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $379,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $379,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $379,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $379,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $379,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-05-22
   historical $2,600
10. 2026-05-09
    listed $379,000 Active
11. 2026-04-11
    listed $2,600
12. 2025-01-11
    historical $2,750
13. 2025-01-03
    listed $2,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,400 · $700/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,400 · $700/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,230
• − Property taxes: −$8,400
• − Insurance: −$1,895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,552
• − Management: −$3,552
• − HOA: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$11,025
• Taxable loss: −$6,519
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,565
• After-tax cash flow: $1,231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,085–$33,255 screening

This two-story home in Connerton, built in 2023, is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It is ready for a new owner or tenant with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Resale Trim and paint trim and doors — Fresh trim and paint can improve the home's appearance. ↑
• Rental Clean and maintain HVAC system — A clean and well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce maintenance costs. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Connerton Elementary School C- FL #976/2,144 Nat'l #11,114/41,679 Middle Pine View Middle School B FL #157/571 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Land O' Lakes High School C+ FL #106/667 Nat'l #3,545/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Connerton Blvd to Flourish Drive to Little Blue Stem Drive to Storybook Cabin Way
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,300Total annual fees: $1,260Total monthly fees: $105Lease restrictions in place
• HOA & community: Has HOA (HomeRiver Group)Monthly association fee of $105Association fee requiredCommunity amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, park, pool, sidewalks, tennis courtsPets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedWater connectedSewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residenceTwo storiesSouth-facingMPUD zoning
• Construction: Block, stucco, frame and other construction materialsShingle and other roof typesConcrete perimeter and slab foundationBuilt on a 0.11-acre lot
• Exterior features: SidewalkIrrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalRangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorOther appliance(s)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fansEat-in kitchenOpen floorplanThermostatWalk-in closets10 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry roomWasherDryer

Price history

-5.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Rental Removed $2,600 RentEngineListings
• 2026-05-09 Listed $379,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Listed for Rent $2,600 RentEngineListings
• 2025-01-11 Rental Removed $2,750 APPFOLIO
• 2025-01-03 Listed for Rent $2,750 APPFOLIO

Property tax history

+72.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,400 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.