800 Corey Creek Ln · Southold, NY 11971

$1,950,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,025 sqft · Land · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 0.55 ac lot $33/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Stunning new-construction coastal retreat with modern luxury and unmatched entertaining spaces. This bright, modern farmhouse offers a covered front porch, designer kitchen with upgraded appliances featuring a 48" Viking stove, and seamless flow into spacious living areas. Two primary suites — one on the first floor and one on the second — plus spa-like full bathrooms provide comfort and privacy. Indoor/outdoor living is exceptional: a 20 x 40 inground pool set in pavers, fire pit seating, a tiki bar, wet bar and half bath outside. Ideal for gathering. The living room showcases a dramatic 60' gas fireplace. A whole-house entertainment system with indoor and outdoor speakers

Key facts

• 0.55 acre lot
• Garage
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: HERS Index Score provided (green building verification type)
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: Homeowner association with an annual fee of $400 covering common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (1 car)
• Security: Security system installed
• Utilities: Electric service by PSEG; Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; New construction; Living area reported from plans
• Construction: Frame construction; Full basement with walk-out access; Attic with pull-down stairs
• Exterior features: Back yard; Covered patio/porch; Cabana; Private in-ground saltwater pool with electric heat and fenced enclosure; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms count not provided
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; ENERGY STAR qualified heating equipment
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Chef's kitchen; Double vanity; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Open floor plan; Master bedroom on main level; Smart thermostat; Soaking tub; Whole-house entertainment system; Built-in speakers / wired for sound; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Dryer; Washer hookup (washer not specified)

🏗️ New construction. The $1,950,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $1,948,747.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath land listed at $1.95M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($35k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($21k rent vs $1.95M).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Southold Elementary School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 317 students, 35% FRL); Southold Junior-Senior High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 380 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 17% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $58k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $550k; list at $1.95M implies a 255% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,950,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.50%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,948,747
• List price: $1,950,000
• Delta: 0.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-127,222
• Equity at exit: $290,565

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $132,946
• Equity at exit: $168,492

Cash invested: $545,649 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11971

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,830 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,219
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,436 /mo · $29,231/yr
• Insurance: −$812
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,374
• Net cashflow: $2,955

Break-even live

Break-even rent $17,089

Max offer price $1,948,747

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $487,187
• Closing costs: $58,462
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 Sleepy Hollow Ln Southold, NY	4.0	3.0	2900	$25,000	$8.62	44d	1	0.56mi
580 Gin Ln Southold, NY	4.0	4.0	3585	$20,000	$5.58	24d	1	1.04mi
215 Northfield Ln Southold, NY	4.0	3.0	2300	$13,000	$5.65	18d	1	1.29mi
1685 Peconic Ln Peconic, NY	3.0	3.0	3100	$18,000	$5.81	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-09
   listed $1,950,000 Active 1027-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   historical $1,950,000 1027-char remark
3. 2025-05-12
   soldstatus $550,000
4. 1999-07-06
   soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $249,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$109,160
• − Property taxes: −$29,231
• − Insurance: −$9,744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,997
• − Management: −$19,997
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$56,691
• Taxable income: $4,744
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,139
• After-tax cash flow: $34,325/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southold Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627620
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $78,622
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2269
• State rank: #298 of 590 in NY

Livability — Southold

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #10545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southold, NY
• City population: 6,507
• Population (ZIP): 6,507

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.14%
• Current HPI: 396.5481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2900.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-09 Listed $1,950,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Coming Soon $1,950,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $550,000 Public Records
• 1999-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,516 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.