551 E JP Teal · Odessa, TX 79766

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 101 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 1.00 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 551 E J P Teal Dr! This 2022-built manufactured home sits on a full acre, offering space, privacy, and modern comfort. Featuring an open floor plan, bright living areas, and plenty of outdoor room for entertaining or future additions. Enjoy peaceful country living with convenient access to town. A great opportunity for first-time buyers or anyone wanting land with a newer home!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Full acre
• Bright living areas

Tags

• FULL ACRE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BRIGHT LIVING AREAS
• OUTDOOR ROOM
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO TOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $74k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,208 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.50%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $69,481
• Equity at exit: $148,706

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $202,162
• Equity at exit: $255,442

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79766

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,342 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,350/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,147

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $265,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $265,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $265,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-03-10
    listed $265,000 Active 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Welcome to 551 E J P Teal Dr! This 2022-built manufactured home sits on a full acre, offering space, privacy, and modern comfort. Featuring an open floor plan, bright living areas, and plenty of outdoor room for entertaining or future additions. Enjoy peaceful country living with convenient access to town. A great opportunity for first-time buyers or anyone wanting land with a newer home!

17. 2022-11-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,350 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,850 · $404/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,500/yr (+$208/mo · 106.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$2,350
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,248
• − Management: −$2,248
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$2,620
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$629
• After-tax cash flow: $2,481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2022-built manufactured home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good exterior, interior, and foundation. The home is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping can add value and make the home more attractive

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing ↑
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping can add value and make the home more attractive ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 131,169
• Population (ZIP): 10,712

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% White 25% Two or more races 24% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 63%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.91%
• Current HPI: 222.3497
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $265,000 ODMLS
• 2022-11-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+120.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,350 · +12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.