9855 Green Valley Dr · Ferguson, MO 63136

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1946 5,039 sqft lot Est $134k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELCOME HOME! THIS LOVELY RENOVATED 1 STORY HOME HAS MANY UPDATES TO SEE. THE WARM AND WELCOMING LIVINGROOM LEADS TO THE BEAUTIFULLY RENOVATED KITCHEN & DINING ROOM. THE BATHROOM HAS ALSO BEEN RENOVATED. MAIN FLOOR HAS 3 BEDROOMS. LOWER LEVEL IS PARTIALLY FINISHED WITH A FAMILY/REC ROOM COMPLETE WITH A BAR. LAUNDRY IS IN THE LOWER LEVEL. THIS HOME IS A MUST SEE!

Key facts

• 5,039 sq ft lot
• Built 1946
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual property tax (2025): $1,814

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partially finished basement; Five total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 9.2% in Ferguson — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Moline Elem. (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,058 of 1,115 statewide, top 96%, 295 students, 99% FRL); Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.88%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,584
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9701 Glen Owen Dr	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+1%)	3mo	$69,900	$62	74
9739 Balboa Dr	0.24mi	3/1.0	999 (-10%)	1mo	$76,900	$77	72
9614 Winkler Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-8%)	1mo	$125,000	$123	71
9533 Winkler Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,104 (0%)	4mo	$144,900	$131	70
10129 Ventura Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,055 (-4%)	2mo	$129,900	$123	67
2014 Kappel Dr	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	989 (-10%)	2mo	$19,000	$19	64
1719 Newhall Ct	0.46mi	3/1.0	975 (-12%)	0mo	$120,000	$123	59
9724 Dennis Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-4%)	1mo	$89,900	$85	58
9866 Dennis Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,032 (-6%)	3mo	$124,900	$121	55
9871 Medford Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	950 (-14%)	2mo	$124,900	$131	51
10146 Clairmont Dr	0.51mi	4/1.0 (+1)	970 (-12%)	3mo	$25,000	$26	48
9850 Monarch Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,014 (-8%)	2mo	$99,900	$99	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $44,739
• Equity at exit: $47,005

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.56×
• Total profit: $121,228
• Equity at exit: $75,968

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,296 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $807/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $766

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1926 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1095	$995	$0.91	14d	1	0.08mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	7d	1	0.10mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	43d	1	0.11mi
9812 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,495	$1.00	21d	1	0.15mi
9709 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	43d	1	0.26mi
2008 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	858	$1,175	$1.37	23d	1	0.28mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	7d	1	0.32mi
1733 Kappel Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	0.38mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	3d	1	0.40mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	23d	1	0.43mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	43d	1	0.43mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	43d	1	0.47mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	0.49mi
9839 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	43d	1	0.50mi
9725 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,485	$1.63	43d	1	0.53mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	43d	1	0.54mi
9750 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	43d	1	0.55mi
9547 Glen Owen Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	923	$985	$1.07	23d	1	0.62mi
9850 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	43d	1	0.64mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	12d	1	0.67mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	23d	1	0.68mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	23d	1	0.69mi
2257 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	23d	1	0.69mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	43d	1	0.69mi
9717 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,323	$1.25	43d	1	0.73mi
10304 Bon Oak Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,250	$0.83	43d	1	0.81mi
62 Capitol Hill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,250	$1.01	43d	1	0.84mi
1550 Northwinds Estates Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	877	$1,050	$1.20	43d	1	0.85mi
2326 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	23d	1	0.86mi
2321 Noll Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	23d	1	0.86mi
10113 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	882	$775	$0.88	43d	1	0.90mi
10112 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	7d	1	0.93mi
9744 Lanier Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,345	$1.33	43d	1	0.95mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	23d	1	1.02mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	43d	1	1.02mi
10113 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	770	$1,325	$1.72	43d	1	1.07mi
9723 Portage Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	7d	1	1.10mi
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	23d	1	1.13mi
10139 Royal Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1016	$900	$0.89	43d	1	1.13mi
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	21d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-18
   listed $95,000 Active
3. 2021-05-07
   status Pending 369-char remark

   Show marketing remark (369 chars)

   WELCOME HOME! THIS LOVELY RENOVATED 1 STORY HOME HAS MANY UPDATES TO SEE. THE WARM AND WELCOMING LIVINGROOM LEADS TO THE BEAUTIFULLY RENOVATED KITCHEN & DINING ROOM. THE BATHROOM HAS ALSO BEEN RENOVATED. MAIN FLOOR HAS 3 BEDROOMS. LOWER LEVEL IS PARTIALLY FINISHED WITH A FAMILY/REC ROOM COMPLETE WITH A BAR. LAUNDRY IS IN THE LOWER LEVEL. THIS HOME IS A MUST SEE!

4. 2021-05-06
   soldstatus $65,000
5. 2021-04-30
   soldstatus Closed 369-char remark

   Show marketing remark (369 chars)

   WELCOME HOME! THIS LOVELY RENOVATED 1 STORY HOME HAS MANY UPDATES TO SEE. THE WARM AND WELCOMING LIVINGROOM LEADS TO THE BEAUTIFULLY RENOVATED KITCHEN & DINING ROOM. THE BATHROOM HAS ALSO BEEN RENOVATED. MAIN FLOOR HAS 3 BEDROOMS. LOWER LEVEL IS PARTIALLY FINISHED WITH A FAMILY/REC ROOM COMPLETE WITH A BAR. LAUNDRY IS IN THE LOWER LEVEL. THIS HOME IS A MUST SEE!

6. 2021-03-16
   historical Active Under Contract 369-char remark

   Show marketing remark (369 chars)

   WELCOME HOME! THIS LOVELY RENOVATED 1 STORY HOME HAS MANY UPDATES TO SEE. THE WARM AND WELCOMING LIVINGROOM LEADS TO THE BEAUTIFULLY RENOVATED KITCHEN & DINING ROOM. THE BATHROOM HAS ALSO BEEN RENOVATED. MAIN FLOOR HAS 3 BEDROOMS. LOWER LEVEL IS PARTIALLY FINISHED WITH A FAMILY/REC ROOM COMPLETE WITH A BAR. LAUNDRY IS IN THE LOWER LEVEL. THIS HOME IS A MUST SEE!

7. 2021-03-12
   listed $65,000 Active 369-char remark

   Show marketing remark (369 chars)

   WELCOME HOME! THIS LOVELY RENOVATED 1 STORY HOME HAS MANY UPDATES TO SEE. THE WARM AND WELCOMING LIVINGROOM LEADS TO THE BEAUTIFULLY RENOVATED KITCHEN & DINING ROOM. THE BATHROOM HAS ALSO BEEN RENOVATED. MAIN FLOOR HAS 3 BEDROOMS. LOWER LEVEL IS PARTIALLY FINISHED WITH A FAMILY/REC ROOM COMPLETE WITH A BAR. LAUNDRY IS IN THE LOWER LEVEL. THIS HOME IS A MUST SEE!

8. 2000-10-12
   soldstatus $62,900
9. 1964-02-14
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $807 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $922 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$114/yr (+$10/mo · 14.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$807
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,244
• − Management: −$1,244
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $3,693
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$886
• After-tax cash flow: $4,136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+51.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Listed $95,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-07 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-16 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-12 Listed $65,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $62,900 Public Records
• 1964-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $807 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.