2020 Ashby Rd · Franklin, CA 95348

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 756 sqft · Land · 37 Days on market

Built 1983

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Not hoa fee its the space rent a must see with lots of up grades message for more info or to see in person

Key facts

• Built 1983
• Listed 37 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $963 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,087 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 116.29%
• DSCR: 6.17
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.46×
• Total profit: $49,909
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.23×
• Total profit: $103,334
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95348

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,724 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $963

Break-even live

Break-even rent $505

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $991	-5% $977	+0% $963	+5% $949	+10% $935
Rent	-10% $827	-5% $895	+0% $963	+5% $1,031	+10% $1,099
Rate	-1.0pp $983	-0.5pp $973	base $963	+0.5pp $953	+1.0pp $942

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $40,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $40,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $40,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $40,000 Active
17. 2007-12-07
    historical
18. 2007-06-07
    listed $39,000
19. 2004-06-30
    historical
20. 2004-06-05
    listed $14,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AO · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$1,668
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,655
• − Management: −$1,655
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $11,705
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,809
• After-tax cash flow: $8,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merced Union High
• NCES district ID: 0624660
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,977
• Composite: 28.11/100
• National rank: #6823
• State rank: #301 of 517 in CA

Livability — Franklin

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1087
• US rank: #25385

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Franklin, CA
• County: Merced County · 205,386 people
• Metro: Merced, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,540
• Household income: $64,944
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1408.0

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 23% Asian 16% Two or more races 15% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Asian/Pacific 8% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.74%
• Current HPI: 247.7309
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.77%
• Metro: Merced, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+168.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $40,000 FSBO.com
• 2007-12-07 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-06-07 Listed $39,000 CRMLS
• 2004-06-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2004-06-05 Listed $14,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $31,080 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.