937 Twin Ponds · Hardeeville, SC 29927

$304,159

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 5,972 sqft lot Est $308k · at est. $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

The Baker is a one-story plan featuring three bedrooms and two bathrooms. Upon entry, you will notice two bedrooms and a shared bathroom to your left. The family room with an optional boxed ceiling starts the common areas and flows seamlessly into the eat-in and kitchen. The primary suite is located off the kitchen and has a private bathroom and walk-in closet. The one-car garage completes this floor plan.

Key facts

• 5,972 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $304k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-313 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (14.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.6% in Hardeeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#136 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Jasper 01 (rural): math 12% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #77 of 80 in SC (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hardeeville Elementary (math 9% / reading 13%, grade F, #581 of 597 statewide, top 97%, 610 students, 100% FRL); Hardeeville-Ridgeland Middle (math 8% / reading 17%); Ridgeland Secondary Academy of Excellence (math 17% / reading 57%, grade F, #183 of 196 statewide, top 94%, 639 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 78% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,385 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jasper County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,298 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.41%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,664
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Waters Edge Way	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,148 (0%)	13mo	$298,900	$260	86
1059 Twin Pond Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,148 (0%)	3mo	$290,486	$253	84
477 Waters Edge Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,148 (0%)	7mo	$307,340	$268	83
477 Waters Edge Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,148 (0%)	7mo	$307,340	$268	83
236 Waters Edge Way	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,148 (0%)	15mo	$319,900	$279	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $138,985
• Equity at exit: $274,011

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.85×
• Total profit: $412,892
• Equity at exit: $590,914

Cash invested: $85,165 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29927

• Home prices YoY: 18.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 504
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,323 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,595
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$380 /mo · $4,562/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,719

Max offer price $258,893

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-103	-5% $-208	+0% $-313	+5% $-418	+10% $-523
Rent	-10% $-496	-5% $-405	+0% $-313	+5% $-221	+10% $-129
Rate	-1.0pp $-160	-0.5pp $-235	base $-313	+0.5pp $-392	+1.0pp $-472

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,040
• Closing costs: $9,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 Sandlapper Dr Hardeeville, SC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	901	$2,625	$2.91	15d	1	0.24mi
321 Donegal Dr Hardeeville, SC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1120	$1,978	$1.77	15d	46	0.31mi
264 Aurora Way Bluffton, SC	2.0	2.0	1403	$2,900	$2.07	23d	1	0.60mi
110 University Pkwy Okatie, SC	2.0	2.5	1252	$1,900	$1.52	15d	1	1.06mi
521 Eastwater Ln Okatie, SC	2.0	2.5	1252	$2,250	$1.80	15d	1	1.19mi
149 Lazy Daisy Dr Bluffton, SC	2.0	2.0	1240	$2,500	$2.02	23d	1	1.28mi
193 University Pkwy Okatie, SC	3.0	2.0	1257	$2,350	$1.87	15d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-19
   listed $304,159 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,038
• − Property taxes: −$4,562
• − Insurance: −$1,521
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,230
• − Management: −$2,230
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$8,848
• Taxable loss: −$9,105
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,185
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,569/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper 01
• NCES district ID: 4502520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,878
• Composite: 14.23/100
• National rank: #9450
• State rank: #77 of 80 in SC

Livability — Hardeeville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #136
• US rank: #13105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment B Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hardeeville, SC
• County: Jasper County · 26,362 people
• City population: 11,373
• Metro: Hilton Head Island-Bluffton, SC
• Population (ZIP): 11,373
• Household income: $72,821
• Rent vs Own: 24.4% rent · 75.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 337.0

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,428 people
• By 2030: 37,718 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 44,061 · +28.0%
• By 2050: 50,302 · +46.1%
• By 2075: 66,869 · +94.2%
• By 2100: 110,455 · +220.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 27% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.6) · D 44.7% · R 54.3% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.5pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: -9.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.6 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+11.9 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 60.81%
• Current HPI: 384.6071
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.68%
• Metro: Hilton Head Island-Bluffton, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Pending — LRMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $304,159 LRMLS