3111 Villa Dr · Lockhart, FL 32810

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1948 8,906 sqft lot Est $287k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BIG PRICE REDUCTION, BRING YOUR INVESTORS, OWNER SAYS SELL

Key facts

• Newer roof
• A/c
• Functional layout

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• RENOVATED EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET
• NEWER ROOF
• A/C

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Northeast facing; Residential property
• Construction: Stucco and frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.6% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#228 in FL, #3,605 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 159 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $189k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.52%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,232
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3112 Kathleen Dr	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,106 (+2%)	2mo	$220,000	$199	68
5408 Milan Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,231 (+13%)	1mo	$325,000	$264	58
5706 Satel Dr	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,060 (-3%)	14mo	$410,000	$387	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-14,144
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,227
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32810

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,857 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $791/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,438

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $439	-5% $385	+0% $332	+5% $278	+10% $225
Rent	-10% $185	-5% $258	+0% $332	+5% $405	+10% $478
Rate	-1.0pp $427	-0.5pp $380	base $332	+0.5pp $283	+1.0pp $233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7120 Forest City Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	912	$1,499	$1.64	8d	11	0.53mi
5200 N Orange Blossom Trl Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	976	$1,624	$1.66	15d	1	0.71mi
3911 Alpert Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,795	$1.40	2d	1	0.75mi
3940 Alpert Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,695	$1.54	15d	1	0.77mi
110 Zora Pl Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1090	$2,644	$2.43	8d	9	0.77mi
6741 Magnolia Pointe Cir Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,695	$1.36	24d	1	0.79mi
3908 Magnolia Pointe Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,795	$1.49	24d	1	0.82mi
5536 Cinderlane Pkwy Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1077	$1,699	$1.58	2d	7	0.84mi
1700 Van Ness St Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,699	$1.85	13d	1	0.90mi
1700 Van Ness St Unit 5 Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,899	$2.06	20d	1	0.90mi
5300 Cinderlane Pkwy Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	824	$1,880	$2.28	3d	2	0.91mi
7618 Forest City Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,662	$1.77	5d	3	0.92mi
2200 Flagler Promenade Way Maitland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$2,729	$2.50	2d	24	0.92mi
6750 Woodlake Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	797	$1,700	$2.13	3d	18	0.93mi
5205 Eggleston Ave Unit 102 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1219	$1,895	$1.55	15d	1	0.97mi
5175 Cinderlane Pkwy Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	751	$1,565	$2.08	3d	27	0.97mi
5315 Davisson Ave Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	831	$1,350	$1.62	24d	1	0.97mi
3717 Clubside Pointe Dr Unit 1 Orlando, FL	3.0	3.0	1344	$2,100	$1.56	24d	1	0.98mi
3757 Clubside Pointe Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1264	$1,750	$1.38	24d	1	1.00mi
6998 Woodlake Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	2.5	1053	$1,600	$1.52	24d	1	1.01mi
4414 Cluster Dr #4414 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.5	1444	$1,800	$1.25	24d	1	1.04mi
3979 Versailles Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1183	$1,450	$1.23	24d	1	1.05mi
1821 Courtland St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1428	$2,299	$1.61	15d	1	1.06mi
4023 Versailles Dr Unit 4023F Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,750	$1.30	15d	1	1.07mi
4106 Dijon Dr Unit 4106E Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1165	$1,395	$1.20	24d	1	1.08mi
4713 Thorpe Ave Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,950	$1.95	24d	1	1.09mi
4022 Versailles Dr Unit C Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1165	$1,350	$1.16	18d	1	1.10mi
3806 Groome Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1111	$2,400	$2.16	24d	1	1.11mi
4114 Dijon Dr Unit 4114E Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1165	$1,400	$1.20	24d	1	1.12mi
4170 Versailles Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1165	$1,199	$1.03	24d	1	1.12mi
4160 Versailles Dr Unit 4160D Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1165	$1,450	$1.24	24d	1	1.12mi
4176 Versailles Dr Unit D Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1165	$1,350	$1.16	24d	1	1.12mi
5234 Journal Ave Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,600	$2.22	17d	1	1.14mi
1440 Lake Shadow Cir Maitland, FL	2.0	2.0	1048	$1,550	$1.48	15d	1	1.15mi
1375 Lake Shadow Cir Maitland, FL	2.0	1.0	884	$1,550	$1.75	12d	1	1.16mi
1325 Lake Shadow Cir #12104 Maitland, FL	2.0	2.0	1048	$1,550	$1.48	8d	1	1.20mi
5224 Long Rd Orlando, FL	2.0–4.0	1.5–2.5	1426	$1,754	$1.23	3d	17	1.21mi
1475 Lake Shadow Cir Maitland, FL	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,912	$1.69	18d	3	1.21mi
1475 Lake Shadow Cir Maitland, FL	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,912	$1.69	15d	2	1.21mi
1475 Lake Shadow Cir #6202 Maitland, FL	2.0	2.0	1150	$2,300	$2.00	13d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $189,000 Pending 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $189,000 Active
16. 2006-08-23
    soldstatus $111,800
17. 2006-07-31
    soldstatus $111,750 58-char remark

    Show marketing remark (58 chars)

    BIG PRICE REDUCTION, BRING YOUR INVESTORS, OWNER SAYS SELL

18. 2006-04-04
    listed $114,000 58-char remark

    Show marketing remark (58 chars)

    BIG PRICE REDUCTION, BRING YOUR INVESTORS, OWNER SAYS SELL

19. 2004-10-20
    historical
20. 2004-06-16
    listed $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $791 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,569 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$778/yr (+$65/mo · 98.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,289
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$791
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,783
• − Management: −$1,783
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $902
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$216
• After-tax cash flow: $3,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #3605

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockhart, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 37,127
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 36,927
• Household income: $60,799
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1859.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 29% White 25% Two or more races 16% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 9% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.77%
• Current HPI: 347.7447
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.50%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+98.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $111,800 Public Records
• 2006-07-31 Sold (MLS) $111,750 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-04 Listed $114,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-16 Listed $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $791 · +17.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.