300 Valley St · Farley, KY 42003

$149,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,369 sqft · SingleFamily · 88 Days on market

Built 1976 0.36 ac lot $109/sqft · at area comps Est $151k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy three bedroom home that's full of charm and character! Inside, you'll find beautiful hardwood floors and a large wood-burning fireplace with built-in firewood storage, creating a warm and inviting living space. Additional improvements include new crawl space encapsulation, newer roof and siding, fresh paint throughout, and many other updates. This cute and well-maintained home is ready for its next owner! Don't miss it!

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Newer siding
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER SIDING
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• BUILT IN FIREWOOD STORAGE
• CRAWL SPACE ENCAPSULATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($682/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#359 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mccracken County (town): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #16 of 165 in KY (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Reidland Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #434 of 676 statewide, top 69%, 587 students, 70% FRL); Reidland Middle School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #51 of 217 statewide, top 24%, 330 students, 64% FRL); Mccracken County High School (math 30% / reading 44%, grade F, #58 of 254 statewide, top 27%, 1,999 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 41% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; 187 units permitted in McCracken County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McCracken County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $150k implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,416 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.62%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,603
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -0.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
300 Valley St	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,369 (0%)	1mo	$154,000	$112	99
3520 Benton Rd	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,444 (+6%)	7mo	$184,825	$128	78
304 Oaks Rd	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,312 (-4%)	15mo	$168,500	$128	70
3202 Alpha Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,479 (+8%)	10mo	$184,900	$125	63
3501 Hovekamp Rd	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,216 (-11%)	15mo	$117,000	$96	60
1701 Meacham Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,398 (+2%)	5mo	$127,325	$91	59
3024 Ramage Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,423 (+4%)	2mo	$179,900	$126	58
813 Oaks Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,340 (-2%)	10mo	$28,000	$21	56
1507 Meacham Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+7%)	9mo	$105,000	$71	55
205 Lindberg St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,559 (+14%)	6mo	$160,000	$103	35
2715 Estes Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-7%)	22mo	$185,500	$145	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-20,735
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-13,654
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42003

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,214 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $646/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,142

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $99	+0% $57	+5% $14	+10% $-28
Rent	-10% $-39	-5% $9	+0% $57	+5% $105	+10% $153
Rate	-1.0pp $132	-0.5pp $95	base $57	+0.5pp $18	+1.0pp $-22

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,900 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $149,900 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-04-27
   price $149,900 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   Cozy three bedroom home that's full of charm and character! Inside, you'll find beautiful hardwood floors and a large wood-burning fireplace with built-in firewood storage, creating a warm and inviting living space. Additional improvements include new crawl space encapsulation, newer roof and siding, fresh paint throughout, and many other updates. This cute and well-maintained home is ready for its next owner! Don't miss it!

5. 2026-03-26
   price $159,900 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   Cozy three bedroom home that's full of charm and character! Inside, you'll find beautiful hardwood floors and a large wood-burning fireplace with built-in firewood storage, creating a warm and inviting living space. Additional improvements include new crawl space encapsulation, newer roof and siding, fresh paint throughout, and many other updates. This cute and well-maintained home is ready for its next owner! Don't miss it!

6. 2026-03-05
   listed $169,900 Active 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   Cozy three bedroom home that's full of charm and character! Inside, you'll find beautiful hardwood floors and a large wood-burning fireplace with built-in firewood storage, creating a warm and inviting living space. Additional improvements include new crawl space encapsulation, newer roof and siding, fresh paint throughout, and many other updates. This cute and well-maintained home is ready for its next owner! Don't miss it!

7. 1995-06-01
   soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $646 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,289 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$643/yr (+$54/mo · 99.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$646
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,166
• − Management: −$1,166
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,914
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$459
• After-tax cash flow: $1,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mccracken County
• NCES district ID: 2103960
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $49,976
• Composite: 39.84/100
• National rank: #3871
• State rank: #16 of 165 in KY

Livability — Farley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #359
• US rank: #17178

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Farley, KY
• Population (ZIP): 29,384

Population outlook (McCracken County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,237 people
• By 2030: 63,468 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 61,221 · -4.7%
• By 2050: 58,432 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 52,668 · -18.0%
• By 2100: 44,517 · -30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McCracken

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.9) · D 31.9% · R 66.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.9 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+37.2 2012: R+32.5 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.31%
• Current HPI: 236.3013
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+256.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $149,900 WKRMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $159,900 WKRMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $169,900 WKRMLS
• 1995-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $646 · +175.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.