137 Dennis Rd · Hay, MI 48624

$135,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 670 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 1960 0.74 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on a peaceful waterfront lot along Smallwood Lake, this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home is full of potential and ready for its next chapter. Lovingly owned since 1985, it has been the setting for decades of unforgettable memories with family and friends. Now, it's your opportunity to make it your own. The home features a newer roof installed in 2021, providing peace of mind as you bring your vision to life. Step outside to enjoy the spacious yard with direct water access--perfect for relaxing weekends, entertaining guests, or soaking in the beauty of lake life. While the dock does need repair, the possibilities for creating your ideal waterfront retreat are endless. One of the standout features of this property is the oversized 24' x 32' detached 2-car garage, offering abundant space for vehicles, storage, hobbies, or the ultimate workshop setup. Situated on approximately 0.74 acres, the property also includes additional wooded land, giving you even more room to expand, store recreational toys, or create additional outdoor living space. With some TLC, this property could become the perfect weekend getaway, cozy full-time residence, or a special gathering place for years to come. Home is being sold as-is. Don't miss your chance to restore and personalize this hidden gem on Smallwood Lake!

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Waterfront lot
• Direct water access

Tags

• WATERFRONT LOT
• NEWER ROOF
• DIRECT WATER ACCESS
• OVERSIZED DETACHED GARAGE
• ADDITIONAL WOODED LAND

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Ranch-style home; One level; Waterfront frontage; Additional parcels included
• Construction: Built in 1960; Asbestos construction material; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Other structures on site including a pole barn
• Exterior features: Dock; Playground; Back yard; Front yard; Few trees; Waterfront; Full chain-link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (approx. 10.2 x 9.1); Second bedroom (approx. 9.2 x 9.6)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Laminate counters; Living room wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: No built-in laundry (no laundry features listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $535 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Gladwin Community Schools (town): math 28% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #232 of 540 in MI (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 288 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Gladwin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gladwin County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $132,975 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.99%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $55,610
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
711 Rivers Terrace St	0.62mi	2/1.0	720 (+8%)	23mo	$59,900	$83	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $12,170
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $54,313
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48624

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,713 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $646/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $535

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,035

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $612	-5% $573	+0% $535	+5% $497	+10% $459
Rent	-10% $400	-5% $468	+0% $535	+5% $603	+10% $671
Rate	-1.0pp $603	-0.5pp $570	base $535	+0.5pp $500	+1.0pp $465

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-28
    listed $135,000 Active 1320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1320 chars)

    Nestled on a peaceful waterfront lot along Smallwood Lake, this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home is full of potential and ready for its next chapter. Lovingly owned since 1985, it has been the setting for decades of unforgettable memories with family and friends. Now, it's your opportunity to make it your own. The home features a newer roof installed in 2021, providing peace of mind as you bring your vision to life. Step outside to enjoy the spacious yard with direct water access--perfect for relaxing weekends, entertaining guests, or soaking in the beauty of lake life. While the dock does need repair, the possibilities for creating your ideal waterfront retreat are endless. One of the standout features of this property is the oversized 24' x 32' detached 2-car garage, offering abundant space for vehicles, storage, hobbies, or the ultimate workshop setup. Situated on approximately 0.74 acres, the property also includes additional wooded land, giving you even more room to expand, store recreational toys, or create additional outdoor living space. With some TLC, this property could become the perfect weekend getaway, cozy full-time residence, or a special gathering place for years to come. Home is being sold as-is. Don't miss your chance to restore and personalize this hidden gem on Smallwood Lake!

17. 2026-05-28
    listed $135,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1320 chars)

    Nestled on a peaceful waterfront lot along Smallwood Lake, this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home is full of potential and ready for its next chapter. Lovingly owned since 1985, it has been the setting for decades of unforgettable memories with family and friends. Now, it's your opportunity to make it your own. The home features a newer roof installed in 2021, providing peace of mind as you bring your vision to life. Step outside to enjoy the spacious yard with direct water access--perfect for relaxing weekends, entertaining guests, or soaking in the beauty of lake life. While the dock does need repair, the possibilities for creating your ideal waterfront retreat are endless. One of the standout features of this property is the oversized 24' x 32' detached 2-car garage, offering abundant space for vehicles, storage, hobbies, or the ultimate workshop setup. Situated on approximately 0.74 acres, the property also includes additional wooded land, giving you even more room to expand, store recreational toys, or create additional outdoor living space. With some TLC, this property could become the perfect weekend getaway, cozy full-time residence, or a special gathering place for years to come. Home is being sold as-is. Don't miss your chance to restore and personalize this hidden gem on Smallwood Lake!

18. 2025-10-07
    historical
19. 2025-10-07
    historical
20. 2025-04-30
    price $148,000
21. 2025-04-30
    price $148,000
22. 2025-04-08
    listed $133,000 Active
23. 2025-04-07
    listed $133,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $646 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,362 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$717/yr (+$60/mo · 111.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$646
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,644
• − Management: −$1,644
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $4,457
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,070
• After-tax cash flow: $5,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gladwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2615990
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,917
• Composite: 32.93/100
• National rank: #5595
• State rank: #232 of 540 in MI

Livability — Hay

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,269

Population outlook (Gladwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,440 people
• By 2030: 22,281 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 19,867 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 17,667 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 12,909 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 8,629 · -63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gladwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.7) · D 29.1% · R 69.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.7 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+7.2 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.67%
• Current HPI: 238.0744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $135,000 Greater Lansing AoR
• 2026-05-28 Listed $135,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-07 Listing Removed — Greater Lansing AoR
• 2025-10-07 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $148,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $148,000 Greater Lansing AoR
• 2025-04-08 Listed $133,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-04-07 Listed $133,000 Greater Lansing AoR

Property tax history

-3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $646 · -50.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.