209 S Bend Ave · Dothan, AL 36301

$262,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,532 sqft · SingleFamily · 177 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,534 sqft lot $172/sqft · at area comps Est $274k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your dream home located in one of Dothan's newest communities! This stunning new construction property offers the perfect blend of modern luxury and classic charm. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and over 1500 square feet of living space, this spacious haven is designed to provide you with the utmost comfort and style. This beauty has granite countertops throughout and a tile backsplash in the roomy kitchen. This new construction home offers a lifestyle of comfort, convenience, and elegance. Don't miss the opportunity to make it yours today. Schedule a viewing and experience the luxury and charm for yourself! Home to be completed by mid March!

Key facts

• New construction
• Granite countertops
• Tile backsplash

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• NEW CONSTRUCTION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $263k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.3% in Dothan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#146 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Dothan City (urban): math 19% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #73 of 129 in AL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Selma Street Elementary School (math 13% / reading 33%, grade F, #431 of 627 statewide, top 69%, 413 students, 93% FRL); Dothan Preparatory Academy (math 12% / reading 38%, grade F, #163 of 257 statewide, top 64%, 1,133 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 59% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 538 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 463 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,497/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,352 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.54%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,662
• List price: $262,900
• Delta: -3.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
291 S Bend Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,532 (0%)	1mo	$262,900	$172	95
281 S Bend Ave	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+7%)	0mo	$277,900	$169	84
301 S Bend Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-6%)	3mo	$250,000	$174	83
309 S Bend Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-6%)	3mo	$249,900	$174	82
317 S Bend Ave	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,742 (+14%)	0mo	$284,900	$164	69
215 Foxfire Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+4%)	10mo	$265,000	$166	59
213 Foxfire Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+9%)	4mo	$265,000	$158	57
109 Talquin Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+7%)	13mo	$244,000	$149	48
206 Greenbriar Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,737 (+13%)	20mo	$243,000	$140	30
101 Talquin Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,755 (+15%)	18mo	$262,500	$150	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-32,656
• Equity at exit: $39,199

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-15,527
• Equity at exit: $22,731

Cash invested: $73,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 14 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.4 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $279,900 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 102 d
• This list price: 21% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 36301

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 538
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,497 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,379
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$329 /mo · $3,944/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,300

Max offer price $262,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $337	-5% $246	+0% $156	+5% $65	+10% $-26
Rent	-10% $-42	-5% $57	+0% $156	+5% $254	+10% $353
Rate	-1.0pp $288	-0.5pp $222	base $156	+0.5pp $87	+1.0pp $18

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,725
• Closing costs: $7,887
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1605 Ivy Dr Dothan, AL	3.0	2.0	1888	$3,400	$1.80	93d	1	1.14mi
306 Hidden Creek Cir #1 Dothan, AL	2.0	2.0	1233	$1,450	$1.18	93d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $262,900 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $262,900 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $262,900 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $262,900 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $262,900 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $262,900 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $262,900 Active 169 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $262,900 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $262,900 Active 165 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $262,900 Active 163 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $262,900 Active 161 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $262,900 Active 160 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $262,900 Active 159 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $262,900 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $262,900 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $262,900 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    days on market $262,900 Active 152 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $262,900 Active 151 DOM
19. 2026-07-12
    days on market $262,900 Active 150 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $262,900 Active 149 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $262,900 Active 148 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $262,900 Active 147 DOM
23. 2026-07-08
    days on market $262,900 Active 146 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $262,900 Active 145 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $262,900 Active 144 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $262,900 Active 143 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $262,900 Active 142 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $262,900 Active 141 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $262,900 Active 140 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $262,900 Active 139 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $262,900 Active 138 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $262,900 Active 137 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $262,900 Active 136 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $262,900 Active 135 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $262,900 Active 134 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $262,900 Active 133 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $262,900 Active 130 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $262,900 Active 129 DOM
39. 2026-06-19
    days on market $262,900 Active 127 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $262,900 Active 126 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $262,900 Active 125 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $262,900 Active 124 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $262,900 Active 123 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $262,900 Active 121 DOM
45. 2026-06-12
    days on market $262,900 Active 120 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $262,900 Active 117 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $262,900 Active 116 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $262,900 Active 115 DOM
49. 2026-06-05
    days on market $262,900 Active 112 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $262,900 Active 111 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,960
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,726
• − Property taxes: −$3,944
• − Insurance: −$1,314
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,397
• − Management: −$2,397
• − Depreciation: −$7,648
• Taxable loss: −$2,466
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$592
• After-tax cash flow: $2,458/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This new construction home in South Bend at South Park Avenue is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 23/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Selma Street Elementary School F AL #431/627 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 High Carver 9th Grade Academy

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dothan City
• NCES district ID: 0101230
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,279
• Composite: 24.56/100
• National rank: #7640
• State rank: #73 of 129 in AL

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Dothan

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #13662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dothan, AL
• County: Houston · 110,280 people
• City population: 47,783
• Metro: Dothan, AL
• Population (ZIP): 38,627
• Household income: $49,124
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,280 people
• By 2030: 112,668 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 116,149 · +5.3%
• By 2050: 117,805 · +6.8%
• By 2075: 118,577 · +7.5%
• By 2100: 110,940 · +0.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.7% · R 73.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -40.8pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+47.6 2012: R+40.3 2008: R+40.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.46%
• Current HPI: 161.1212
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Listed $262,900 SAMLS