7450 10th St · Lubbock, TX 79416

$243,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,917 sqft · Other · 49 Days on market

Built 2026 4,950 sqft lot $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Fallow floorplan offers a spacious and versatile two-story 1,917 square feet layout with 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage—ideal for growing households or those needing extra space. The main level features an open-concept design that connects the kitchen, dining area, and family room, creating a welcoming environment for everyday living and entertaining. A convenient powder bath and foyer add functionality to the first floor. Upstairs, the private primary suite serves as a comfortable retreat with a walk-in closet and en-suite bath. Four additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guest rooms, home offices, or hobbies, while a centrally located full bathroom and upstai

Key facts

• 4,950 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $244k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Willow Bend El (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 730 students, 74% FRL); Terra Vista Middle (math 37% / reading 44%, grade F, #637 of 1,662 statewide, top 39%, 891 students, 66% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 36% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 464 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $209,632 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.72%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-27,812
• Equity at exit: $36,380

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-13,994
• Equity at exit: $21,096

Cash invested: $68,317 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79416

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 464
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,096 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,280
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $504/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,828

Max offer price $243,990

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $350	-5% $281	+0% $212	+5% $-135	+10% $-220
Rent	-10% $46	-5% $129	+0% $212	+5% $295	+10% $377
Rate	-1.0pp $335	-0.5pp $274	base $212	+0.5pp $149	+1.0pp $84

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,998
• Closing costs: $7,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7105 14th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,950	$1.22	22d	1	0.27mi
7324 9th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,950	$1.10	22d	1	0.33mi
7452 8th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1727	$2,075	$1.20	14d	1	0.66mi
6111 10th Dr Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1917	$1,649	$0.86	22d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-02
   price $243,990
3. 2026-02-18
   listed $253,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $504 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,465 · $372/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,961/yr (+$330/mo · 785.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,667
• − Property taxes: −$504
• − Insurance: −$1,220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,012
• − Management: −$2,012
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$7,098
• Taxable loss: −$1,611
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$387
• After-tax cash flow: $2,929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,442
• Household income: $63,896
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2214.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.94%
• Current HPI: 227.7841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $243,990 LARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $253,990 LARMLS