451 Sweet Spring Dr · Lavon, TX 75166

$249,980

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,434 sqft · Land · 153 Days on market

Built 2026 5,184 sqft lot $174/sqft · at area comps Est $259k · at est. $155/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21153937 - Built by Pacesetter Homes - Ready Now! ~ Experience low-maintenance living in this beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath Lassen II townhome offering comfort, convenience, and style. All bedrooms are located on the second floor, providing privacy and separation from the main living spaces. The open-concept kitchen features 36 Regency-style upper cabinets with a rich saddle stain, quartz countertops, a pop-up outlet at the island, pendant lighting, and stainless steel appliances including a dishwasher and range. The bathrooms are finished with elegant polar white engineered marble countertops, complemented by brushed nickel light fixtures throughout the home. Added LED disk lighting in the family room creates a bright and welcoming atmosphere, while the covered patio and private backyard offer the perfect outdoor retreat. With full gutters around the entire home and exterior upkeep covered by the HOA, this townhome delivers stylish, low-maintenance living at its finest.Your Pacesetter Home comes equipped with a suite of smart features designed to enhance everyday living.-Ring Video Doorbell-Honeywell Smart T6 Thermostat for energy savings-WiFi-enabled Garage Door-Rainbird Wifi-capable Sprinkler System

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Open concept kitchen
• Private backyard

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• SMART FEATURES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.5% in Lavon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 634 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $219,982 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.16%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,277
• List price: $249,980
• Delta: -3.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-28,765
• Equity at exit: $37,273

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-9,962
• Equity at exit: $21,614

Cash invested: $69,994 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 634
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,323 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $966/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$155
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,089

Max offer price $249,980

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,495
• Closing costs: $7,499
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
445 Elevon Pkwy Unit 819 Nevada, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,372	$1.14	43d	1	0.66mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1143	$2,029	$1.77	3d	26	1.10mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,675	$1.83	2d	1	1.39mi
544 Oak Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,150	$1.19	18d	1	1.40mi
849 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,200	$1.51	12d	1	1.41mi
918 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,900	$1.18	43d	1	1.41mi
579 White Water Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	24d	1	1.45mi
455 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$2,033	$2.01	1d	80	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $155 · $1,860/yr
• Likely covers: internet

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,980 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,980 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,980 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,980 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,980 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,980 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,980 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,980 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,980 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,980 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,980 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,980 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,980 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,980 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    status Active 1237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1237 chars)

    MLS# 21153937 - Built by Pacesetter Homes - Ready Now! ~ Experience low-maintenance living in this beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath Lassen II townhome offering comfort, convenience, and style. All bedrooms are located on the second floor, providing privacy and separation from the main living spaces. The open-concept kitchen features 36 Regency-style upper cabinets with a rich saddle stain, quartz countertops, a pop-up outlet at the island, pendant lighting, and stainless steel appliances including a dishwasher and range. The bathrooms are finished with elegant polar white engineered marble countertops, complemented by brushed nickel light fixtures throughout the home. Added LED disk lighting in the family room creates a bright and welcoming atmosphere, while the covered patio and private backyard offer the perfect outdoor retreat. With full gutters around the entire home and exterior upkeep covered by the HOA, this townhome delivers stylish, low-maintenance living at its finest.Your Pacesetter Home comes equipped with a suite of smart features designed to enhance everyday living.-Ring Video Doorbell-Honeywell Smart T6 Thermostat for energy savings-WiFi-enabled Garage Door-Rainbird Wifi-capable Sprinkler System

16. 2026-04-25
    status Pending 1237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1237 chars)

    MLS# 21153937 - Built by Pacesetter Homes - Ready Now! ~ Experience low-maintenance living in this beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath Lassen II townhome offering comfort, convenience, and style. All bedrooms are located on the second floor, providing privacy and separation from the main living spaces. The open-concept kitchen features 36 Regency-style upper cabinets with a rich saddle stain, quartz countertops, a pop-up outlet at the island, pendant lighting, and stainless steel appliances including a dishwasher and range. The bathrooms are finished with elegant polar white engineered marble countertops, complemented by brushed nickel light fixtures throughout the home. Added LED disk lighting in the family room creates a bright and welcoming atmosphere, while the covered patio and private backyard offer the perfect outdoor retreat. With full gutters around the entire home and exterior upkeep covered by the HOA, this townhome delivers stylish, low-maintenance living at its finest.Your Pacesetter Home comes equipped with a suite of smart features designed to enhance everyday living.-Ring Video Doorbell-Honeywell Smart T6 Thermostat for energy savings-WiFi-enabled Garage Door-Rainbird Wifi-capable Sprinkler System

17. 2026-02-11
    price $249,980 1237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1237 chars)

    MLS# 21153937 - Built by Pacesetter Homes - Ready Now! ~ Experience low-maintenance living in this beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath Lassen II townhome offering comfort, convenience, and style. All bedrooms are located on the second floor, providing privacy and separation from the main living spaces. The open-concept kitchen features 36 Regency-style upper cabinets with a rich saddle stain, quartz countertops, a pop-up outlet at the island, pendant lighting, and stainless steel appliances including a dishwasher and range. The bathrooms are finished with elegant polar white engineered marble countertops, complemented by brushed nickel light fixtures throughout the home. Added LED disk lighting in the family room creates a bright and welcoming atmosphere, while the covered patio and private backyard offer the perfect outdoor retreat. With full gutters around the entire home and exterior upkeep covered by the HOA, this townhome delivers stylish, low-maintenance living at its finest.Your Pacesetter Home comes equipped with a suite of smart features designed to enhance everyday living.-Ring Video Doorbell-Honeywell Smart T6 Thermostat for energy savings-WiFi-enabled Garage Door-Rainbird Wifi-capable Sprinkler System

18. 2026-01-14
    listed $254,990 Active 1237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1237 chars)

    MLS# 21153937 - Built by Pacesetter Homes - Ready Now! ~ Experience low-maintenance living in this beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath Lassen II townhome offering comfort, convenience, and style. All bedrooms are located on the second floor, providing privacy and separation from the main living spaces. The open-concept kitchen features 36 Regency-style upper cabinets with a rich saddle stain, quartz countertops, a pop-up outlet at the island, pendant lighting, and stainless steel appliances including a dishwasher and range. The bathrooms are finished with elegant polar white engineered marble countertops, complemented by brushed nickel light fixtures throughout the home. Added LED disk lighting in the family room creates a bright and welcoming atmosphere, while the covered patio and private backyard offer the perfect outdoor retreat. With full gutters around the entire home and exterior upkeep covered by the HOA, this townhome delivers stylish, low-maintenance living at its finest.Your Pacesetter Home comes equipped with a suite of smart features designed to enhance everyday living.-Ring Video Doorbell-Honeywell Smart T6 Thermostat for energy savings-WiFi-enabled Garage Door-Rainbird Wifi-capable Sprinkler System

19. 2025-09-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $966 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,608/yr (+$301/mo · 373.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,003
• − Property taxes: −$966
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,230
• − Management: −$2,230
• − HOA: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$7,272
• Taxable loss: −$1,935
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$464
• After-tax cash flow: $2,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $249,980 NTREIS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $254,990 NTREIS
• 2025-09-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $966 · -5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.