302 N Wesley St · Itasca, TX 76055

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1916 5,227 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great potiential investment opportunity. Property is located on a quiet street walking distance from schools. Ideal for a small family or an investor looking for potential rental opportunities.

Key facts

• Quiet street
• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Built 1916

Tags

• QUIET STREET
• WALKING DISTANCE FROM SCHOOLS
• POTENTIAL RENTAL OPPORTUNITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional; Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Off-street parking
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Overhead utilities; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1916; Not attached to another unit
• Construction: Siding exterior; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Few trees on lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (approx. 10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window unit(s) for cooling; Wall furnace heating
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Eat-in kitchen; One level; Two living areas total
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $661 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 5.7% in Itasca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#832 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Itasca ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Itasca El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 295 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.32%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,608
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 S College St	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,232 (+5%)	9mo	$99,999	$81	68
301 S Lamar St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,220 (+4%)	5mo	$244,900	$201	62
604 S Aquilla St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,215 (+3%)	1mo	$245,000	$202	55
303 S Lamar	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,220 (+4%)	19mo	$269,999	$221	50
112 Grayson Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-2%)	7mo	$239,900	$208	49
403 E Adams St	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,278 (+9%)	22mo	$269,900	$211	47
602 S Aquilla St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,086 (-8%)	4mo	$230,000	$212	46
133 Don Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,179 (+0%)	23mo	$222,000	$188	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.71×
• Total profit: $88,414
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.5%
• Equity multiple: 10.55×
• Total profit: $227,335
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76055

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,461/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $661

Break-even live

Break-even rent $763

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 E Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,650	$1.39	43d	1	0.37mi
106 W Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,650	$1.41	43d	1	0.39mi
202 E Henderson St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,750	$1.18	11d	1	0.41mi
107 E Marrion St Unit 4 Itasca, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$875	$1.22	43d	1	0.56mi
111 Minnie Dr Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,775	$1.42	43d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $85,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $85,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-05-20
   listed $85,000 Active
10. 2006-09-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,461 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$94/yr (+$8/mo · 6.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,461
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $7,004
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,681
• After-tax cash flow: $6,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Itasca ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824480
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,224
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #7499
• State rank: #636 of 826 in TX

Livability — Itasca

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #14977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Itasca, TX
• City population: 3,719
• Population (ZIP): 3,719

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.37%
• Current HPI: 264.5221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $85,000 NTREIS
• 2006-09-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,461 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.