1925 Otay Lakes Rd #167 · Chula Vista, CA 91913

$240,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured · 28 Days on market

Built 1973 Est $240k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Easy Living at Otay Lakes Lodge – 55+ Community in Beautiful Chula Vista! Discover comfort, convenience, and community in this spacious and well-maintained home located in the highly desirable 55/45+ retirement community of Otay Lakes Lodge. Perfect for those looking to downsize without sacrificing space or style, this charming residence offers everything you need to enjoy your next chapter. Step into a bright and airy sunroom – an ideal space to relax, read, or soak in the beautiful San Diego sunshine year-round. The open layout provides excellent living space and flexibility, with room to personalize for your hobbies, guests, or home office needs. Key features inclu

Key facts

• Sunroom
• Private yard
• Storage shed

Tags

• SUNROOM
• NEW ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• PRIVATE YARD
• STORAGE SHED
• LARGE COVERED CARPORT
• WELL APPOINTED CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool; Senior community (55/45)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Connected to sewer
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Residential property in a 55/45 senior community; Located in the Chula Vista subdivision
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Cross fenced; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms possible
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas cooktop

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $236k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 2.7% in Chula Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#127 in CA, #4,345 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Sweetwater Union High (suburban): math 36% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 517 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 171 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $240k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $236,400 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.15%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $240,240
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1925 Otay Lakes Rd #167	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,560 (0%)	1mo	$240,000	$154	99
1925 Otay Lakes Rd #52	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,608 (+3%)	4mo	$240,000	$149	87
1925 Otay Lakes Rd #39	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (-5%)	6mo	$215,000	$144	82
1925 Otay Lakes Rd #69	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,392 (-11%)	5mo	$215,000	$154	74
1925 Otay Lks #82	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	13mo	$140,000	$97	72
1925 Otay Lakes Rd #172	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-8%)	11mo	$249,000	$173	68
1925 Otay Lakes Rd #81	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	16mo	$210,000	$156	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $25,674
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $86,149
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91913

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,528 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$741
• Net cashflow: $1,129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,099

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2079 Lakeridge Cir #104 Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.0	1166	$3,400	$2.92	1d	1	0.61mi
787 Brookstone Rd #103 Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.0	1166	$3,500	$3.00	24d	1	0.66mi
1554 Apache Dr Chula Vista, CA	3.0	3.0	1500	$4,500	$3.00	1d	1	0.67mi
1282 Fools Gold Way #2 Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.5	1586	$3,595	$2.27	10d	1	0.72mi
1280 Haglar Way #1 Chula Vista, CA	3.0	3.0	1519	$3,850	$2.53	1d	1	0.76mi
1293 Fools Gold Way #2 Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.5	1586	$3,400	$2.14	1d	1	0.78mi
1298 Fools Gold Way #4 Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	1071	$3,100	$2.89	1d	1	0.79mi
1535 Apache Dr Unit D Chula Vista, CA	3.0	3.0	1500	$3,775	$2.52	1d	1	0.81mi
1206 Aruba Cv #3 Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.5	1180	$3,000	$2.54	1d	1	0.81mi
1305 Mother Lode Way #1 Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	1071	$2,900	$2.71	1d	1	0.82mi
1311 Caminito Capistrano #1 Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	1141	$2,845	$2.49	17d	1	0.82mi
1313 Mother Lode Way #3 Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.5	1586	$3,650	$2.30	19d	1	0.84mi
2096 Northshore Dr Unit C Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.5	1570	$3,950	$2.52	16d	1	0.86mi
1381 Caminito Capistrano #5 Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.5	1695	$3,995	$2.36	20d	1	0.87mi
1250 Santa Cora Ave Chula Vista, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	952	$3,234	$3.40	1d	35	0.88mi
2096 Northshore Dr Chula Vista, CA	3.0	3.0	1570	$3,950	$2.52	13d	1	0.88mi
1526 Apache Dr Unit C Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	1270	$3,375	$2.66	1d	1	0.89mi
1338 Nicolette Ave #1032 Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	1066	$2,800	$2.63	21d	1	0.94mi
1344 Paizay Pl #732 Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	1066	$2,695	$2.53	1d	1	0.96mi
1355 Nicolette Ave #1323 Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	1066	$2,700	$2.53	1d	1	0.99mi
1863 Opaline Pl #513 Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.0	1478	$3,800	$2.57	1d	1	1.00mi
1357 Burgundy Dr Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.5	1500	$3,500	$2.33	7d	1	1.01mi
1441 Vallejo Mills St Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.5	1664	$4,250	$2.55	10d	1	1.05mi
2155 Caminito Leonzio #22 Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.5	1515	$3,695	$2.44	10d	1	1.10mi
1251 Boca Raton Dr Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$3,795	$2.71	7d	1	1.11mi
1444 Canvas Dr #3 Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.5	1360	$4,025	$2.96	1d	1	1.19mi
1924 E Palomar St Chula Vista, CA	2.0–3.0	3.0	1209	$3,150	$2.60	1d	6	1.19mi
1460 Canvas Dr #3 Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.5	1360	$3,600	$2.65	17d	1	1.22mi
1381 Caminito Veranza Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.5	1259	$3,950	$3.14	1d	1	1.31mi
1445 Town Center Dr Chula Vista, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	926	$3,960	$4.28	1d	20	1.33mi
1455 Banahaw Way #11 Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.5	1357	$3,500	$2.58	1d	1	1.34mi
2241 Lago Ventana Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.5	1447	$3,800	$2.63	1d	1	1.35mi
1629 Santa Venetia St Chula Vista, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1115	$3,430	$3.08	1d	27	1.39mi
1152 La Vida Ct Chula Vista, CA	3.0	3.0	1607	$3,795	$2.36	16d	1	1.42mi
1345 Serena Cir #2 Chula Vista, CA	3.0	3.0	1545	$4,199	$2.72	2d	1	1.42mi
581 Canyon Dr Bonita, CA	3.0	2.0	1505	$4,000	$2.66	7d	1	1.45mi
1625 Santa Venetia St Chula Vista, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$3,352	$3.33	1d	24	1.45mi
2450 La Costa Ave Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.5	1621	$4,200	$2.59	1d	1	1.45mi
1337 Serena Cir #2 Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.5	1228	$3,500	$2.85	1d	1	1.46mi
1390 Santa Alicia Ave Chula Vista, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1050	$3,278	$3.12	1d	15	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $240,000 Active
3. 2026-02-20
   status Active
4. 2026-01-28
   status Pending
5. 2025-12-12
   status Active
6. 2025-10-30
   historical
7. 2025-10-29
   historical
8. 2025-10-22
   listed $240,000 Active
9. 2025-09-08
   status Active
10. 2025-08-26
    status Pending
11. 2025-08-26
    historical
12. 2025-05-12
    listed $225,000 Active
13. 2019-08-02
    soldstatus $130,000 Closed Sale
14. 2019-08-02
    soldstatus $130,000 Sold
15. 2019-07-11
    status Pending Sale
16. 2019-07-11
    status Pending
17. 2019-04-30
    listed $130,000 Active
18. 2019-04-30
    listed $130,000 Active
19. 2008-09-29
    soldstatus $120,000
20. 2008-03-10
    listed $135,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 4 d/yr ≥90°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,387
• − Management: −$3,387
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable income: $10,338
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,481
• After-tax cash flow: $11,062/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sweetwater Union High
• NCES district ID: 0638640
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,051
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4158
• State rank: #187 of 517 in CA

Livability — Chula Vista

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #4345

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chula Vista, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 255,708
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 57,721
• Household income: $129,337
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1806.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% Asian 25% Two or more races 24% White 14% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Hispanic 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 34% Tagalog/Filipino 11% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.26%
• Current HPI: 350.4967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.88%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+77.1% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — SDMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $240,000 SDMLS
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2026-01-28 Pending — SDMLS
• 2025-12-12 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $240,000 SDMLS
• 2025-09-08 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2025-08-26 Pending — SDMLS
• 2025-08-26 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-05-12 Listed $225,000 SDMLS
• 2019-08-02 Sold (MLS) $130,000 SDMLS
• 2019-08-02 Sold (MLS) $130,000 CRMLS
• 2019-07-11 Pending — CRMLS
• 2019-07-11 Pending — SDMLS
• 2019-04-30 Listed $130,000 SDMLS
• 2019-04-30 Listed $130,000 CRMLS
• 2008-09-29 Sold (MLS) $120,000 CRMLS
• 2008-03-10 Listed $135,500 CRMLS