712 N Main St · Tonkawa, OK 74653

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1923 6,450 sqft lot Est $113k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home is an AirbnB at $100 per night so would make a great investment. Easy access to college and downtown. Furniture is negotiable. Owner/Agent

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Splash pad
• Pool

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• PUBLIC PARK
• POOL
• SPLASH PAD
• BASEBALL FIELDS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available and connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Construction details: see remarks
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Composition roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Window unit cooling; Heating present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($974 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#99 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Tonkawa (town): math 16% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #179 of 270 in OK (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Kay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kay County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.25%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,800
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
908 N 10th	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,053 (-7%)	3mo	$105,000	$100	72
806 N 7th St	0.10mi	2/1.0	1,288 (+14%)	9mo	$83,500	$65	65
612 N 9th St	0.12mi	2/1.0	1,008 (-11%)	16mo	$84,694	$84	64
109 S 10th St	0.68mi	2/1.0	964 (-14%)	4mo	$30,000	$31	41
103 S 4th St	0.68mi	2/1.0	976 (-14%)	6mo	$87,500	$90	41
304 N 12th St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	972 (-14%)	11mo	$145,000	$149	37
1200 N 6th	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,265 (+12%)	21mo	$134,000	$106	37
407 E Grand	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,269 (+12%)	17mo	$144,900	$114	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $6,704
• Equity at exit: $19,347

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $29,903
• Equity at exit: $19,334

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74653

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $974 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $781/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $691

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    listed $85,000 Active
18. 2024-04-15
    soldstatus $60,000
19. 2024-03-27
    soldstatus $69,900 Closed 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Home is an AirbnB at $100 per night so would make a great investment. Easy access to college and downtown. Furniture is negotiable. Owner/Agent

20. 2024-03-27
    soldstatus $69,900

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Home is an AirbnB at $100 per night so would make a great investment. Easy access to college and downtown. Furniture is negotiable. Owner/Agent

21. 2024-02-22
    historical Active Under Contract 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Home is an AirbnB at $100 per night so would make a great investment. Easy access to college and downtown. Furniture is negotiable. Owner/Agent

22. 2024-02-15
    price $69,900 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Home is an AirbnB at $100 per night so would make a great investment. Easy access to college and downtown. Furniture is negotiable. Owner/Agent

23. 2024-01-28
    price $78,500 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Home is an AirbnB at $100 per night so would make a great investment. Easy access to college and downtown. Furniture is negotiable. Owner/Agent

24. 2023-12-11
    listed $78,900 Active 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Home is an AirbnB at $100 per night so would make a great investment. Easy access to college and downtown. Furniture is negotiable. Owner/Agent

25. 2022-09-30
    soldstatus $27,500 23-char remark

    Show marketing remark (23 chars)

    Tonkawa School district

26. 2022-06-14
    listed $45,000 23-char remark

    Show marketing remark (23 chars)

    Tonkawa School district

27. 2012-05-24
    soldstatus $25,000
28. 2007-10-29
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $781 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $781 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$781
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$935
• − Management: −$935
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $1,378
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$331
• After-tax cash flow: $2,348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonkawa
• NCES district ID: 4030120
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,371
• Composite: 16.33/100
• National rank: #9207
• State rank: #179 of 270 in OK

Livability — Tonkawa

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #11096

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonkawa, OK
• City population: 3,689
• Population (ZIP): 3,689

Population outlook (Kay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,389 people
• By 2030: 42,222 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 40,108 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 38,231 · -11.9%
• By 2075: 34,119 · -21.4%
• By 2100: 28,526 · -34.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 12% Native American 11% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Kay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.4) · D 24.4% · R 73.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: -41.6pp · 2024: -49.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.4 2020: R+51.0 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+41.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.29%
• Current HPI: 241.0167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+325.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $85,000 NCBOR
• 2024-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2024-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records
• 2024-03-27 Sold (MLS) $69,900 NWOAR
• 2024-02-22 Contingent — NWOAR
• 2024-02-15 Price Changed $69,900 NWOAR
• 2024-01-28 Price Changed $78,500 NWOAR
• 2023-12-11 Listed $78,900 NWOAR
• 2022-09-30 Sold (MLS) $27,500 NWOAR
• 2022-06-14 Listed $45,000 NWOAR
• 2012-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2007-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $781 · +151.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.