5318 Astrid Dr · Zephyrhills West, FL 33541

$89,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1983 4,000 sqft lot Est $86k · at est. $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 5318 Astrid Drive, located in the desirable Oaks Royal 55+ community in Zephyrhills, FL. This well-maintained 2-bedroom home offers comfortable, easy Florida living with a functional layout and inviting living spaces. The home features fresh interior paint, a newer roof (2024), and a newer AC system, providing peace of mind for years to come. The bright eat-in kitchen offers plenty of space for everyday living and flows seamlessly into the main living area, creating an open and welcoming feel. Durable laminate flooring runs through the main areas, while both bedrooms provide comfortable space and privacy, with the primary suite positioned toward the rear of the home. Just off the

Key facts

• Shuffleboard courts
• Clubhouse
• Pool

Tags

• ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM
• ATTACHED UTILITY AREA
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• SHUFFLEBOARD COURTS
• DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total living area reported as 672 square feet (public records); Building area reported as 1,500 square feet (public records)
• HOA & community: Has HOA (annual fee $450 / $37.50 monthly); Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, shuffleboard court; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One story; Faces west; Residential property
• Construction: Metal siding; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 0.09-acre lot
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Rain barrel/cistern; Rain gutters; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room (in garage)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $778 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 7.8% in Zephyrhills West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#772 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $89k implies a 256% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.47%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $86,016
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5313 Aurora Dr	0.02mi	2/1.5	672 (0%)	4mo	$66,000	$98	94
36416 Cordova Cir	0.12mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	1mo	$60,000	$89	89
5400 Amanda St	0.61mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	8mo	$105,000	$156	61
37113 Lois Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	3mo	$75,000	$112	59
37112 Sandra Ave	0.73mi	2/1.5	664 (-1%)	8mo	$70,000	$105	55
37031 Karen Ave	0.66mi	2/1.5	720 (+7%)	1mo	$92,000	$128	54
36312 Toranado Way	0.21mi	2/1.5	768 (+14%)	12mo	$120,000	$156	54
37020 Lois Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0	624 (-7%)	2mo	$73,000	$117	52
36029 Aster Ave	0.38mi	2/2.0	768 (+14%)	13mo	$100,000	$130	47
37042 Lois Ave	0.68mi	2/2.0	748 (+11%)	8mo	$95,000	$127	43
37105 Lois Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0	744 (+11%)	12mo	$96,000	$129	35
5318 Mary St	0.69mi	2/1.5	768 (+14%)	12mo	$119,000	$155	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $29,751
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $68,917
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,865 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,852/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $778

Break-even live

Break-even rent $880

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5168 Crooked Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,645	$2.74	22d	1	0.60mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,732	$2.02	2d	142	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $89,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-04-23
    listed $89,000 Active
15. 2026-04-23
    historical
16. 2026-04-09
    listed $89,000 Active
17. 2025-04-02
    historical
18. 2025-03-07
    price $109,000
19. 2025-02-06
    price $128,000
20. 2024-12-27
    listed $135,000 Active
21. 1995-12-29
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,852 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,852 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,852
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,790
• − Management: −$1,790
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $8,483
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,036
• After-tax cash flow: $7,302/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills West

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #772
• US rank: #17403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+256.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $89,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $89,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $109,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $128,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-27 Listed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,852 · +295.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.