1495 W Buffalo Run Rd · Paulden, AZ 86323

$315,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,046 sqft · Manufactured public records · 247 Days on market

Built 2005 2.44 ac lot $154/sqft · 11% above area Est $391k · 19% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This manufactured home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with approximately 2046 square feet of living space on a 2.44 acre lot. Closing is not contingent upon the status of the mobile home title. The purchaser may be responsible to de-title the mobile home after purchase. No Buyer Premium on this property. The data presented in this listing is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This information should be used for informational use only and does not constitute a legal document for the description of this property. Buyer or Buyer's Agent to verify all facts, figures, schools, dimensions, Sq Ft, permits, HOA fees etc. that is of material importance to Buyer.

Key facts

• 2.44 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.0% in Paulden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#202 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Chino Valley Unified District (4474) (town): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #112 of 249 in AZ (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,179 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $390,819
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -19.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6300 N Gray Gos Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,100 (+3%)	14mo	$302,600	$144	59
6375 N Mangas Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,870 (-9%)	20mo	$392,000	$210	41
1117 W Tatanka Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,280 (+11%)	22mo	$460,000	$202	40
6390 Bison Walk Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,765 (-14%)	21mo	$404,000	$229	38
6474 Bison Walk Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,765 (-14%)	21mo	$399,900	$227	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-57,595
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-59,003
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86323

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,252 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,156/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,379

Max offer price $297,240

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-05
   price $315,000 665-char remark

   Show marketing remark (665 chars)

   This manufactured home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with approximately 2046 square feet of living space on a 2.44 acre lot. Closing is not contingent upon the status of the mobile home title. The purchaser may be responsible to de-title the mobile home after purchase. No Buyer Premium on this property. The data presented in this listing is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This information should be used for informational use only and does not constitute a legal document for the description of this property. Buyer or Buyer's Agent to verify all facts, figures, schools, dimensions, Sq Ft, permits, HOA fees etc. that is of material importance to Buyer.

2. 2025-09-23
   historical
3. 2025-09-22
   listed $348,600 Active 665-char remark

   Show marketing remark (665 chars)

   This manufactured home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with approximately 2046 square feet of living space on a 2.44 acre lot. Closing is not contingent upon the status of the mobile home title. The purchaser may be responsible to de-title the mobile home after purchase. No Buyer Premium on this property. The data presented in this listing is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This information should be used for informational use only and does not constitute a legal document for the description of this property. Buyer or Buyer's Agent to verify all facts, figures, schools, dimensions, Sq Ft, permits, HOA fees etc. that is of material importance to Buyer.

4. 2025-09-12
   listed $428,000 Active
5. 2024-09-11
   historical
6. 2024-07-30
   listed $459,900 Active
7. 2023-07-19
   status Pending
8. 2023-07-18
   soldstatus $428,000 Closed
9. 2023-07-18
   soldstatus $428,000
10. 2023-06-29
    historical Active with Contingency
11. 2023-05-22
    price $415,000
12. 2023-04-23
    status Active
13. 2023-04-14
    historical Active with Contingency
14. 2023-04-10
    listed $430,000 Active
15. 2017-03-03
    soldstatus $210,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,156 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,079 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$923/yr (+$77/mo · 79.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,021
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$1,156
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,162
• − Management: −$2,162
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$6,841
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,642
• After-tax cash flow: $435/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chino Valley Unified District (4474)
• NCES district ID: 0400003
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,429
• Composite: 25.22/100
• National rank: #7505
• State rank: #112 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Paulden

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #202
• US rank: #20477

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paulden, AZ
• City population: 4,309
• Population (ZIP): 19,297

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.73%
• Current HPI: 410.5632
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+50.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $315,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-22 Listed $348,600 ARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $428,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-11 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-30 Listed $459,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-19 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $428,000 Public Records
• 2023-07-18 Sold (MLS) $428,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-29 Contingent — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-22 Price Changed $415,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-23 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-14 Contingent — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-10 Listed $430,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-03 Sold (MLS) $210,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,156 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.