52412 Pappy Ln · Shelby, MI 48316

$225,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,127 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1960 0.34 ac lot Est $287k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Huge lot w/ North Branch Creek running through property. Call listing broker for more details.

Key facts

• North branch creek
• Huge lot
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• HUGE LOT
• NORTH BRANCH CREEK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with approximately 2.5 parking spaces
• Utilities: Natural gas; Public water; Septic
• Home design: Residential single-story home; Built in 1960
• Construction: Brick construction; Basement foundation; Year built 1960
• Exterior features: Brick exterior; Shed on property; Paved street access; Frontage ~141 feet; Approximately 0.34 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on entry level (approx. 17 x 10)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on entry level (approx. 13 x 10, 13 x 10, ~10 wide)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom and one lavatory (two total), both on entry level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Attic fan
• Interior features: Total of 7 rooms; Finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement access (finished)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $955 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 3.2% in Shelby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#324 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $176k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $225,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.19%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,385
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
52742 Pappy Ln	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,189 (+6%)	1mo	$365,000	$307	79
53333 Aulgur Dr	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,099 (-2%)	10mo	$337,500	$307	65
53432 Bruce Hill Dr	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,256 (+11%)	1mo	$365,000	$291	56
4625 Maeder St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,150 (+2%)	23mo	$250,000	$217	52
3880 24 Mile Rd	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,019 (-10%)	21mo	$260,000	$255	50
51270 Shelby Rd	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,053 (-7%)	18mo	$258,000	$245	41
4224 23 Mile Rd	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,008 (-11%)	11mo	$240,000	$238	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $24,389
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $99,672
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48316

• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,141 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,035/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$660
• Net cashflow: $955

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,932

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1880 E Avon Rd Rochester Hills, MI	2.0	2.0	1294	$4,470	$3.45	1d	1	1.35mi
1908 Flagstone Cir Rochester, MI	2.0	2.0	1338	$1,750	$1.31	4d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   listing id $225,000 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 94-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $225,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,035 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,250 · $271/mo
• Expected delta: +$215/yr (+$18/mo · 7.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,694
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,035
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,016
• − Management: −$3,016
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $8,354
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,005
• After-tax cash flow: $9,454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634470
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $65,953
• Composite: 40.52/100
• National rank: #3709
• State rank: #126 of 540 in MI

Livability — Shelby

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #324
• US rank: #7973

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 28,355

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -200.39%
• Current HPI: 186.8397
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+120.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $225,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-14 Listed $225,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $176,130 Public Records
• 2001-12-04 Sold (MLS) $176,130 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2001-10-19 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2001-10-15 Listed $174,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1990-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,035 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.