22577 Nebula Way · Connerton, FL 34637

$346,400

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,870 sqft · SingleFamily · 72 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $185/sqft · 12% below area Est $394k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This spacious two-story home features a contemporary open floorplan among the kitchen, living room and dining room on the first floor, perfect for hosting guests. The second floor contains a versatile loft that can double as a media room, as well as all four bedrooms, including an expansive owner's suite with a lavish private bathroom.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Private bathroom
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• VERSATILE LOFT
• MEDIA ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $346k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.6% in Connerton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $286,545 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $394,255
• List price: $346,400
• Delta: -12.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22588 Nebula Way	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,936 (+4%)	8mo	$355,390	$184	84
22640 Nebula Way	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,936 (+4%)	7mo	$370,000	$191	83
22400 Blazing Star Run	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,936 (+4%)	4mo	$380,090	$196	82
22496 Nebula Way	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,817 (-3%)	10mo	$384,900	$212	81
8182 Painted Sky Pl	0.33mi	4/2.5	1,870 (0%)	6mo	$350,900	$188	80
22428 Nebula Way	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,817 (-3%)	12mo	$379,240	$209	77
22450 Nebula	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,936 (+4%)	10mo	$417,000	$215	74
22162 Nebula Way	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,810 (-3%)	3mo	$355,000	$196	72
7754 Painted Sky Pl	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,817 (-3%)	14mo	$354,490	$195	66
22103 Blazing Star Run	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,936 (+4%)	12mo	$400,000	$207	63
8042 Painted Sky Pl	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,936 (+4%)	14mo	$382,775	$198	62
9205 Shadyside Ln	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,061 (+10%)	4mo	$417,000	$202	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-42,663
• Equity at exit: $74,753

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-27,815
• Equity at exit: $71,170

Cash invested: $96,992 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 51 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 23.5 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $368,090 ($201/sqft)
• Median days on market: 26 d
• This list price: 22% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 439
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,865 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,817
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$433 /mo · $5,196/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,030

Max offer price $327,562

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $-10	+0% $-130	+5% $-250	+10% $-370
Rent	-10% $-357	-5% $-243	+0% $-130	+5% $-17	+10% $96
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $-42	base $-130	+0.5pp $-220	+1.0pp $-311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,600
• Closing costs: $10,392
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22430 Blazing Star Run Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,550	$1.32	40d	1	0.09mi
22310 Blazing Star Run Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,450	$1.31	75d	1	0.20mi
8879 Coqui Song Ln Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1851	$2,300	$1.24	44d	1	0.29mi
8862 Gallantree Pl Unit 8862-Townhouse Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,195	$1.37	108d	1	0.45mi
8938 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1851	$2,550	$1.38	79d	1	0.49mi
8948 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,145	$1.34	44d	1	0.50mi
8948 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,050	$1.28	29d	1	0.50mi
8948 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,050	$1.28	32d	1	0.50mi
9001 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,100	$1.31	62d	1	0.55mi
9094 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,100	$1.31	10d	1	0.62mi
8930 Ehren Cutoff Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,200	$1.70	10d	1	0.76mi
8897 Flourish Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,149	$1.33	10d	1	0.77mi
21816 Crest Meadow Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	3.0	2061	$3,200	$1.55	64d	1	0.83mi
21648 Southern Charm Dr Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	3.0	2560	$3,000	$1.17	40d	1	0.83mi
9344 Bella Vita Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	2072	$2,900	$1.40	75d	1	1.00mi
8827 Sentiero Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,795	$1.36	74d	1	1.09mi
8827 Sentiero Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,795	$1.36	78d	1	1.09mi
21286 Wistful Yearn Dr Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	3.5	2492	$3,600	$1.44	7d	1	1.17mi
9645 Carabiner Way Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,500	$1.34	77d	1	1.22mi
9676 Nyssa St Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,050	$1.28	80d	1	1.31mi
21818 Lyonia Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,250	$1.41	110d	1	1.33mi
21881 Lyonia Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,000	$1.25	4d	1	1.34mi
7847 Foxgrove Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1807	$2,131	$1.18	44d	1	1.37mi
7843 Foxgrove Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1985	$2,050	$1.03	10d	1	1.38mi
7843 Foxgrove Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1985	$2,050	$1.03	0d	1	1.38mi
21869 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,400	$1.50	119d	1	1.39mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	94d	1	1.40mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,945	$1.21	77d	1	1.40mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	100d	1	1.40mi
9750 Campanula Ct Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	2208	$2,700	$1.22	119d	1	1.42mi
7076 Gulf Cypress Ave Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1826	$2,450	$1.34	10d	1	1.44mi
7076 Gulf Cypress Ave Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1826	$2,450	$1.34	0d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $364,400

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home, Atlanta planActive, move-in ready spec home
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,870Address: 22577 Nebula Way, Land O' Lakes, FL 34637

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new-construction home (Atlanta plan)

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-07-24
   days on market $346,400 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-07-23
   days on market $346,400 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-07-22
   days on market $346,400 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-07-21
   pricedays on market $346,400 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-07-20
   pricedays on market $345,900 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-07-18
   pricedays on market $345,400 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-07-16
   days on market $344,400 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-07-15
   days on market $344,400 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-07-13
   days on market $344,400 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-07-13
    days on market $344,400 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-07-11
    days on market $344,400 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-07-10
    days on market $344,400 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-07-10
    price $344,400 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $347,900 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-07-07
    days on market $366,900 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-07-06
    days on market $366,900 Active 54 DOM
17. 2026-07-06
    days on market $366,900 Active 53 DOM
18. 2026-07-05
    pricedays on market $366,900 Active 52 DOM
19. 2026-07-03
    days on market $366,400 Active 51 DOM
20. 2026-07-03
    pricedays on market $366,400 Active 50 DOM
21. 2026-07-01
    days on market $365,900 Active 49 DOM
22. 2026-06-30
    price $365,900 Active 48 DOM
23. 2026-06-30
    days on market $362,400 Active 48 DOM
24. 2026-06-29
    days on market $362,400 Active 47 DOM
25. 2026-06-28
    days on market $362,400 Active 46 DOM
26. 2026-06-27
    days on market $362,400 Active 45 DOM
27. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $362,400 Active 44 DOM
28. 2026-06-24
    pricedays on market $361,900 Active 42 DOM
29. 2026-06-18
    days on market $361,400 Active 36 DOM
30. 2026-06-17
    days on market $361,400 Active 35 DOM
31. 2026-06-16
    days on market $361,400 Active 34 DOM
32. 2026-06-15
    pricedays on market $361,400 Active 33 DOM
33. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $359,400 Active 31 DOM
34. 2026-06-09
    days on market $356,900 Active 27 DOM
35. 2026-06-08
    days on market $356,900 Active 26 DOM
36. 2026-06-08
    price $356,900 Active 25 DOM
37. 2026-06-07
    days on market $355,900 Active 25 DOM
38. 2026-06-04
    days on market $355,900 Active 22 DOM
39. 2026-06-03
    days on market $355,900 Active 21 DOM
40. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $355,900 Active 20 DOM
41. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,900 Active 19 DOM
42. 2026-06-01
    price $365,900 Active 18 DOM
43. 2026-05-31
    days on market $365,400 Active 18 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,385
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,404
• − Property taxes: −$5,196
• − Insurance: −$1,732
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,751
• − Management: −$2,751
• − Depreciation: −$10,077
• Taxable loss: −$7,525
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,806
• After-tax cash flow: $244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,350–$28,050 screening

This spacious two-story home features a contemporary open floorplan and is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. The property is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior siding to enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Replace window screens — Updated screens improve comfort and energy efficiency for renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Connerton Elementary School C- FL #976/2,144 Nat'l #11,114/41,679 Middle Pine View Middle School B FL #157/571 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Land O' Lakes High School C+ FL #106/667 Nat'l #3,545/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $364,400

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home, Atlanta planActive, move-in ready spec home
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,870Address: 22577 Nebula Way, Land O' Lakes, FL 34637

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new-construction home (Atlanta plan)