2301 Walnut Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$99,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1928 3,224 sqft lot $70/sqft · 26% below area Est $135k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute, brick & vinyl, 2 story home situated on a corner lot. 3+ bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms. There's a bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor that allows this home to live like a ranch, if necessary. There's a large backyard that's fully fenced.

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Large backyard
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• LARGE BACKYARD
• FULLY FENCED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($35k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $100k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $93,999 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.84%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,312
• List price: $99,999
• Delta: -26.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
451 20th St	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,440 (+1%)	2mo	$85,000	$59	79
440 20th St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,424 (-0%)	6mo	$52,000	$37	75
628 20th St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,328 (-7%)	2mo	$115,000	$87	69
442 26th St	0.31mi	2/1.0	1,248 (-13%)	2mo	$130,000	$104	62
554 31st St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,524 (+7%)	2mo	$156,000	$102	60
1146 Haeberle Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,408 (-1%)	4mo	$115,000	$82	57
749 16th St	0.47mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,320 (-8%)	4mo	$117,000	$89	55
2519 Welch Ave	0.44mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,320 (-8%)	6mo	$122,000	$92	55
552 29th St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,573 (+10%)	4mo	$140,000	$89	54
1013 13th St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,352 (-5%)	3mo	$97,000	$72	49
1148 Haeberle Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,302 (-9%)	4mo	$85,000	$65	45
2415 Linwood Ave	0.69mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,584 (+11%)	6mo	$145,000	$92	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $72,890
• Equity at exit: $90,087

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.94×
• Total profit: $222,211
• Equity at exit: $194,276

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,263 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,987/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,032

Max offer price $99,999

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $240	-5% $211	+0% $183	+5% $155	+10% $126
Rent	-10% $83	-5% $133	+0% $183	+5% $233	+10% $283
Rate	-1.0pp $233	-0.5pp $208	base $183	+0.5pp $157	+1.0pp $131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	45d	1	0.29mi
769 19th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.5	960	$1,400	$1.46	22d	1	0.37mi
2727 Monroe Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	11d	1	0.40mi
1780 Falls St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	45d	1	0.48mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	24d	1	0.52mi
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	45d	1	0.53mi
754 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,100	$1.11	24d	1	0.57mi
2473 Pierce Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	4d	1	0.61mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	4d	1	0.61mi
1808 Whitney Ave Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$900	$0.75	45d	1	0.61mi
3036 Welch Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	2d	1	0.62mi
3340 Simmons Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,550	$1.54	15d	1	0.83mi
2463 South Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,100	$1.09	18d	1	0.90mi
700 Pine Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	1075	$1,075	$1.00	13d	1	1.03mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	985	$1,899	$1.93	2d	1	1.09mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	999	$1,899	$1.90	2d	1	1.09mi
510 6th St Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	950	$900	$0.95	45d	1	1.11mi
714 Buffalo Ave Unit 4 Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	45d	1	1.20mi
714 Buffalo Ave Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	45d	1	1.20mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	4d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,999 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,999 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,999 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,999 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $99,999 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,900 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $109,900 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,900 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    price $109,900 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Cute, brick & vinyl, 2 story home situated on a corner lot. 3+ bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms. There's a bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor that allows this home to live like a ranch, if necessary. There's a large backyard that's fully fenced.

18. 2026-03-30
    listed $119,900 Active 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Cute, brick & vinyl, 2 story home situated on a corner lot. 3+ bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms. There's a bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor that allows this home to live like a ranch, if necessary. There's a large backyard that's fully fenced.

19. 2018-06-27
    soldstatus $30,000 Closed Sale or Rented 79-char remark

    Show marketing remark (79 chars)

    1 bedroom and full bath on first floor, 2 bedroom and full bath on second floor

20. 2018-04-26
    status Pending Sale 79-char remark

    Show marketing remark (79 chars)

    1 bedroom and full bath on first floor, 2 bedroom and full bath on second floor

21. 2018-03-22
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 79-char remark

    Show marketing remark (79 chars)

    1 bedroom and full bath on first floor, 2 bedroom and full bath on second floor

22. 2018-03-10
    listed $31,900 Active 79-char remark

    Show marketing remark (79 chars)

    1 bedroom and full bath on first floor, 2 bedroom and full bath on second floor

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,987 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,987 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,160
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$2,987
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,213
• − Management: −$1,213
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $736
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$177
• After-tax cash flow: $2,019/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+244.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $109,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $119,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-06-27 Sold (MLS) $30,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-04-26 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-03-22 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-03-10 Listed $31,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,987 · +18.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.