9314 Canyon Rd E #34 · Summit, WA 98371

$39,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 744 sqft · Manufactured public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1968 $52/sqft · at area comps Est $38k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Canyon Terrace, a charming 55+ community conveniently located near grocery stores, restaurants, hospitals, shopping, most everything you need just minutes away. Community amenities include a clubhouse with library, a game room that includes billiards and ping pong. RV and additional storage available. This single-wide home sits in a prime location within the park at the end of the street on a desirable corner lot offering added privacy and a peaceful, park-like setting. With two storage sheds in the back and a tucked-away feel, this property provides both space and seclusion. Inside, you’ll find a spacious living room, two bedrooms, and 1¾ bathrooms. The home is read

Key facts

• Two storage sheds
• Game room
• Corner lot

Tags

• CANYON TERRACE COMMUNITY
• CLUBHOUSE WITH LIBRARY
• GAME ROOM
• RV AND ADDITIONAL STORAGE
• CORNER LOT
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 58.0% vs local median 2.5% in Summit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#318 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Franklin Pierce School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #197 of 291 in WA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 227 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $35,490 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 57.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 184.63%
• DSCR: 9.22
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $38,000
• List price: $39,000
• Delta: 2.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5609 88th Street Ct E #7	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (+5%)	16mo	$67,500	$86	54
5611 88th Street Ct E #8	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (+13%)	15mo	$65,000	$77	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.87×
• Total profit: $96,862
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.95×
• Total profit: $206,926
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98371

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,448 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $395/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $1,680

Break-even live

Break-even rent $321

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 26%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,702	-5% $1,691	+0% $1,680	+5% $1,669	+10% $1,658
Rent	-10% $1,487	-5% $1,583	+0% $1,680	+5% $1,777	+10% $1,874
Rate	-1.0pp $1,700	-0.5pp $1,690	base $1,680	+0.5pp $1,670	+1.0pp $1,660

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6115 111th St E Puyallup, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	911	$2,391	$2.62	2d	16	1.27mi
5617 112th St E Puyallup, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	947	$2,195	$2.32	12d	17	1.29mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   price $39,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $49,999 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $49,999 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $49,999 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,999 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-03-03
    listed $49,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $395 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $395 · $33/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$395
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,350
• − Management: −$2,350
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $20,766
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,984
• After-tax cash flow: $15,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin Pierce School District
• NCES district ID: 5302940
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,240
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #8227
• State rank: #197 of 291 in WA

Livability — Summit

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #318
• US rank: #11661

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Summit, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 24,682
• Household income: $97,242
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 507.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Korean 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -580.45%
• Current HPI: 295.2143
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.41%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Listed $49,999 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $395 · +19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.