511 W Pecan St · Aubrey, TX 76227

$230,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1965 1.00 ac lot $192/sqft · 12% below area Est $262k · 12% under ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away from the hustle and bustle, this serene property invites you to experience the peace and privacy of rural living while still being just a short drive from city amenities. This is the Diamond in the rough you have been searching for. Venture outside to embrace the true essence of country living. The expansive one acre lot is adorned with mature trees, offering ample shade and a picturesque backdrop. Imagine the possibilities with one whole acre at your disposal—enough space for your personal garden, outdoor gatherings, or simply enjoying nature's beauty. Animal lovers rejoice, as horses are permitted, allowing you to create your very own pasture paradise. Build new or rehab

Key facts

• One acre lot
• Personal garden
• Pasture paradise

Tags

• ONE ACRE LOT
• MATURE TREES
• PERSONAL GARDEN
• OUTDOOR GATHERINGS
• HORSES PERMITTED
• PASTURE PARADISE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing accepts cash and conventional financing
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; parking surfaces include asphalt, gravel, and unpaved areas; No covered or carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Co-op electric available; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Built in 1965; Not attached to another property
• Construction: Brick and siding construction
• Exterior features: Barbed wire fencing; Native landscaping; Acreage with pasture and many trees; Large backyard with grass; Cul-de-sac location; Subdivision setting; Brush and heavily wooded vegetation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main level) — ~10 x 12
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window unit cooling; Space heater for heating
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Eat-in kitchen; One living area; One dining area; Room count: 2
• Laundry & utility: Individual water meter; Individual gas meter

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Aubrey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#332 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jackie Fuller El (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 735 students, 39% FRL); Aubrey Middle (math 48% / reading 46%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 814 students, 34% FRL); Aubrey H S (math 45% / reading 57%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 923 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1925 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,049 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.86%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,448
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: 21.93%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 W Pecan St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+2%)	16mo	$282,000	$230	75
103 W Plum St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-2%)	10mo	$265,000	$225	72
707 Caddell St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,089 (-9%)	7mo	$235,000	$216	67
301 E Pecan St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-2%)	24mo	$145,000	$123	60
105 E North St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (-5%)	5mo	$232,500	$203	56
408 S Magnolia St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,094 (-9%)	15mo	$245,000	$224	50
408 Demoye Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-0%)	23mo	$300,000	$251	50
803 Chestnut St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-10%)	14mo	$200,000	$185	50
122 Highmeadow Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,153 (-4%)	19mo	$280,000	$243	45
402 Willow Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,324 (+10%)	23mo	$299,900	$227	38
305 Mimosa St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,073 (-11%)	22mo	$250,000	$233	37
410 Tisdell Ln	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-7%)	23mo	$200,000	$179	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-49,090
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-72,036
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1925
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,870 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,307/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,997

Max offer price $212,360

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $30	-5% $-35	+0% $-100	+5% $-165	+10% $-230
Rent	-10% $-248	-5% $-174	+0% $-100	+5% $-26	+10% $48
Rate	-1.0pp $16	-0.5pp $-41	base $-100	+0.5pp $-159	+1.0pp $-220

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
215 Linda St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,825	$1.35	46d	1	0.36mi
215 Linda St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,795	$1.33	7d	1	0.36mi
601 Countryside Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	6d	1	0.42mi
213 S Magnolia St Aubrey, TX	2.0	2.5	1261	$1,395	$1.11	45d	1	0.46mi
229 Irick Ct Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1346	$2,000	$1.49	5d	1	0.70mi
502 Brumley Rd Krugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,895	$1.29	45d	1	1.06mi
2020 Belgian Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,900	$1.45	26d	1	1.09mi
2028 Belgian Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,899	$1.30	0d	1	1.09mi
717 Presidio St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,100	$1.40	20d	1	1.12mi
2028 Sulky Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,900	$1.45	45d	1	1.14mi
2024 Sulky Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,046	$1.40	14d	1	1.14mi
933 King St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$2,100	$1.45	45d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on marketlisting id $230,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $320,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    listed $320,000 Active 985-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,307 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$902/yr (+$75/mo · 27.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,446
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,307
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,796
• − Management: −$1,796
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$5,177
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,242
• After-tax cash flow: $44/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aubrey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808910
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,154
• Composite: 46.21/100
• National rank: #2492
• State rank: #119 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aubrey

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #7241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aubrey, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 62,127
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-28.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-20 Listed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $320,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,307 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.