9561 Sunshine Blvd · River Ridge, FL 34654

$5,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,493 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1987 0.40 ac lot ↓ 55% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Foreclosure Auction Ends June 16, 2026 at 11:00 AM EST. Explore this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence set in a peaceful and well-located New Port Richey community. The list price is the opening bid for the online auction. Sold As-is. Explore more details and submit your bid through Federa Home App.

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1987

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Other water source; Other sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Residential property
• Construction: Construction materials: See remarks; Other roof
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Other flooring

🔨 Auction listing. The $5,000 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $365,785 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-540 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $5k).
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.5% in River Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#559 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 109.7% of price; flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.86%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $365,785
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9825 Casey Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-5%)	10mo	$380,000	$269	72
9512 Sunshine Blvd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-13%)	11mo	$275,000	$212	64
9615 Jasmine Blvd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,488 (-0%)	12mo	$365,000	$245	57
10127 Fox Squirrel Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,564 (+5%)	3mo	$326,000	$208	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-101,411
• Equity at exit: $54,540

10-year hold

• IRR: -54.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-162,437
• Equity at exit: $31,626

Cash invested: $102,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34654

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,674 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$457 /mo · $5,487/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,358

Max offer price $287,589

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,446
• Closing costs: $10,974
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9912 Golden Loop New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1615	$3,000	$1.86	4d	1	0.24mi
11051 Belle Haven Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,200	$1.46	24d	1	1.32mi
8437 Luray Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1038	$1,595	$1.54	4d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $5,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $5,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $5,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   remarks 303-char remark
5. 2026-06-08
   listed $5,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $209 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $209 · $17/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,091
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,490
• − Property taxes: −$5,487
• − Insurance: −$3,331
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,567
• − Management: −$2,567
• − Depreciation: −$10,641
• Taxable loss: −$12,992
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,118
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — River Ridge

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #559
• US rank: #10695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,355
• Household income: $73,947
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.63%
• Current HPI: 294.4358
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-54.5% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $5,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-08-10 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2025-07-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-27 Price Changed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-24 Price Changed $249,900 MARMLS
• 2024-08-05 Price Changed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-02 Price Changed $265,000 MARMLS
• 2024-07-26 Listed $319,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-26 Listed $319,900 MARMLS
• 2009-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2009-05-08 Sold (MLS) $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-03 Listed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-18 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-05 Listed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-02 Listed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $153,500 Public Records
• 2005-05-13 Sold (MLS) $153,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-11-12 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $89,500 Public Records
• 1991-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $81,600 Public Records
• 1986-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $209 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.