38A Woodbranch Dr · Woodbranch, TX 77357

$125,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,348 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1974 1.01 ac lot $93/sqft · 34% below area ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits at this property offering incredible potential for customization and value. The home has experienced prior flooding and is ready for restoration, making it an ideal canvas for those looking to renovate and bring their vision to life. Situated in a desirable location with strong surrounding values, this property presents a chance to create something truly special! Enjoy living just minutes from Big Rivers Waterpark & Adventures and Speedsportz Racing Park, where thrilling entertainment, outdoor adventures, and family fun are always close to home—making every weekend feel like a getaway. The main sewer line from the home to the sewer tap was replaced with new sc

Key facts

• Desirable location
• 1.01 acre lot
• Built 1974

Tags

• READY FOR RESTORATION
• DESIRABLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Generator (electric)
• Home design: Residential property; One-story; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 1974; Brick and wood siding exterior; Block foundation; Shingle and wood roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Partial fencing; Paved driveway; Wooded lot; Side yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Three additional bedrooms on the first floor (each ~10x10–10x11)
• Flooring: Concrete; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 4.4% in Woodbranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#646 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Keefer Crossing Middle (math 35% / reading 31%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 1,213 students, 81% FRL); New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 57% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 979 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.24%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,550
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -45.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
96 White Oak Dr	0.27mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,530 (+14%)	12mo	$325,000	$212	48
368 Royal Oaks St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,523 (+13%)	17mo	$225,000	$148	35
318 Maple Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (+14%)	20mo	$219,900	$143	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-13,309
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-16,431
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,105 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$336 /mo · $4,031/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,861

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $125,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-04-26
    listed $150,000 Active 724-char remark
15. 2000-06-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,031 · $336/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,031 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$4,031
• − Insurance: −$5,744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,021
• − Management: −$2,021
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $807
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$194
• After-tax cash flow: $2,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Woodbranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #646
• US rank: #12243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodbranch, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-26 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2000-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,031 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.