29 Moss Point Trl · Essex Village, CT 06371

$295,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1964 10,018 sqft lot Est $393k · 25% under $12/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rogers Lake Association - Enjoy life on the water! Build your sweat equity! A diamond in the rough awaits at this 3 BR, 1.5 bath split level with one car garage under. Light filled living room with fireplace. Galley kitchen for easy meal prep. Lower level family room with fireplace. Level back yard. Bring your imagination and design your dream home! This home is in Pre-foreclosure.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• 2 fireplaces
• Level lot

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• 2 FIREPLACES
• BACK ENCLOSED PORCH
• LEVEL LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee ($140) that includes clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic system; Above-ground fuel tank
• Home design: Single-family home
• Construction: Frame construction; Shake siding; Concrete foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Green exterior color
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Open porch; Level lot; Walkable to water

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Oil-fired heat; Domestic hot water
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Partial basement; Attic with hatch access; Breezeway

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (0.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 1.4% in Essex Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#63 in CT, #4,113 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Regional School District 18 (rural): math 67% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #16 of 153 in CT (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $238k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.50%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $392,700
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Ledge Trl	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,050 (0%)	13mo	$391,500	$373	74
58 Shore Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	964 (-8%)	12mo	$295,000	$306	67
51 Rogers Lake Trl	0.29mi	3/1.0	936 (-11%)	0mo	$350,000	$374	66
14 Lake Dr	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,172 (+12%)	0mo	$465,000	$397	64
25 Osceola Trl	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-4%)	23mo	$640,000	$635	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-23,710
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $10,351
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06371

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,949 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,234/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$619
• Net cashflow: $378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,470

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-05-01
   historical Under Contract - Continue to Show
3. 2026-04-24
   listed $295,000 Active
4. 2022-06-21
   soldstatus $237,500
5. 2022-06-17
   soldstatus $237,500 Closed 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Rogers Lake Association - Enjoy life on the water! Build your sweat equity! A diamond in the rough awaits at this 3 BR, 1.5 bath split level with one car garage under. Light filled living room with fireplace. Galley kitchen for easy meal prep. Lower level family room with fireplace. Level back yard. Bring your imagination and design your dream home! This home is in Pre-foreclosure.

6. 2022-05-29
   price $249,900 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Rogers Lake Association - Enjoy life on the water! Build your sweat equity! A diamond in the rough awaits at this 3 BR, 1.5 bath split level with one car garage under. Light filled living room with fireplace. Galley kitchen for easy meal prep. Lower level family room with fireplace. Level back yard. Bring your imagination and design your dream home! This home is in Pre-foreclosure.

7. 2022-05-26
   listed $259,900 Active 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Rogers Lake Association - Enjoy life on the water! Build your sweat equity! A diamond in the rough awaits at this 3 BR, 1.5 bath split level with one car garage under. Light filled living room with fireplace. Galley kitchen for easy meal prep. Lower level family room with fireplace. Level back yard. Bring your imagination and design your dream home! This home is in Pre-foreclosure.

8. 2017-02-28
   soldstatus $162,000 265-char remark

   Show marketing remark (265 chars)

   Rogers Lake Association. Split Level style home. Living room w/fireplace, three bedrooms, 1.5 baths, family room in lower level w/fireplace. With some TLC this home can be a first time owner home. Yearly Lake Association fees are 140.00. See Agent to Agent remarks.

9. 2016-08-18
   listed $162,000 265-char remark

   Show marketing remark (265 chars)

   Rogers Lake Association. Split Level style home. Living room w/fireplace, three bedrooms, 1.5 baths, family room in lower level w/fireplace. With some TLC this home can be a first time owner home. Yearly Lake Association fees are 140.00. See Agent to Agent remarks.

10. 2014-03-06
    historical
11. 2013-08-12
    listed $209,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,234 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,774 · $398/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,540/yr (+$128/mo · 47.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$3,234
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,831
• − Management: −$2,831
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$232
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$56
• After-tax cash flow: $4,597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Regional School District 18
• NCES district ID: 0903540
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $87,776
• Composite: 64.19/100
• National rank: #566
• State rank: #16 of 153 in CT

Livability — Essex Village

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #63
• US rank: #4113

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,285
• Population (ZIP): 9,855

Population outlook (Lower Connecticut River Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 188,651

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 6% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lower Connecticut River Valley

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 55.9% · R 42.4% · Other 1.7%
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.61%
• Current HPI: 238.5046
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+41.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-05-01 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $295,000 Smart MLS
• 2022-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $237,500 Public Records
• 2022-06-17 Sold (MLS) $237,500 Smart MLS
• 2022-05-29 Price Changed $249,900 Smart MLS
• 2022-05-26 Listed $259,900 Smart MLS
• 2017-02-28 Sold (MLS) $162,000 Smart MLS
• 2016-08-18 Listed $162,000 Smart MLS
• 2014-03-06 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2013-08-12 Listed $209,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $3,234 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.